There’s this belief that good regular season teams — like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers — mask their faults throughout the regular season only to be exposed come playoff time. Now, what does that mean exactly?
Well, in the case of the Oilers, they’ve managed this season to severely outscore their opponents in the majority of their games. In fact their plus-40 goal differential is tops in the Pacific Division and second to only the Dallas Stars (plus-47) in the NHL’s Western Conference.
Still, they’ve managed to find themselves just third in the division and sixth in the conference while holding down the league’s 11th worst goals against average in the NHL this season at 3.32 through 73 games. In fact, the Oilers have the worst goals against average this season of any current playoff team, but their offensive production from guys like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman have masked that issue to this point of the season.
Like the Oilers, the Maple Leafs have had a similar issue for a number of years. Goaltending seems to get away from them, even if Jack Campbell had a good run against the Tampa Bay Lightning in last year’s playoffs.
So what can we make of the Maple Leafs this season? Are they once again masking their insecurities? Or has this team finally figured out how they need to play to get past the first round of the playoffs — and a likely reunion with the perennial contending Lightning?
Maple Leafs Admittedly Have Questions in Net
Heading into the year, the Maple Leafs had three major question marks. Where was their goaltending at with a duo of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov? Who would play on the left side on the second line? As well as, how well could the team’s overall defence hold up throughout the year with Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Lilljegren playing major roles?
Well, the depth part of the lineup was answered with a couple of impressive moves. Sure, injury has held Ryan O’Reilly out for the time being, but the addition of him and Noel Acciari and the emergence of Calle Jarnkrok has filled that second-line wing spot for the time being.
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As for the back end, Kyle Dubas also answered that question. He landed Jake McCabe, Erik Gustafson and Luke Schenn to give the team some more physicality and depth heading into what should be a tough playoff run in the Eastern Conference.
Finally, the sole question mark that remains is in net. Murray’s play has been inconsistent at best this year thanks in large part to a number of injuries. However, he still holds a 14-8-2 record in 25 games this season with a 2.97 goals against average (GAA) and .905 save percentage (SV%), which isn’t horrible for the 28-year-old.
As for Samsonov, the 26-year-old has a 24-9-3 record in 36 games for the Maple Leafs this season, including a 2.46 GAA and .914 SV% with three shutouts. Better yet, he’s 18-2-2 at home this season with a 1.95 GAA and .929 SV% which could be a factor come playoff time.
Still, he’s battled injury this season as well and the Maple Leafs — while confident — still seem to have question marks about whether or not this duo can get it done. But in having those questions, the team sured up its defensive corps and brought in defensive forwards in Sam Lafferty and Acciari to help in that aspect of the game — admitting there’s a small hole in their lineup and acting to try and close it in any way possible.
Maple Leafs Not Taking Lightning Lightly
On top of their reacting to their question mark in net, it’s worth noting that the Maple Leafs aren’t underestimating the capabilities of their potential first-round opponent. In fact, the team understands just how good and explosive the Lightning can be having seen it first-hand last season and having responded appropriately by bulking up.
The additions of O’Reilly, Acciari and Schenn give the team some much needed physical presence within the lineup to matchup with the likes of Corey Perry, Pat Maroon and Nick Paul and it comes in the form of everyday players.
The depth added also allows the Maple Leafs to run with four lines and gives them some options on the back end as was discussed on the most recent episode of the Sticks in the 6ix podcast. It forces head coach Sheldon Keefe to make tough decisions about who belongs in the lineup on any given night — between players like Justin Holl and Liljegren.
While the depth and physicality will certainly play a role in a potential matchup of the Atlantic Division foes, it’s also worth noting Samsonov’s career success — while limited — against the Lightning.
In two games in his career, the Russian netminder is 2-0-0 with a .911 SV% and 2.52 GAA. It’s a small sample size, but one that certainly favours the Maple Leafs, given what he’s done this season.
Maple Leafs’ Are Trusting the Process
It’s been nearly two decades since the Maple Leafs last made it past the first round of the playoffs and while they’ve come close, they’ve come up short each and every time in recent memory.
In the past, it could easily be argued that — like the Oilers — they masked issues within their lineup. Some years they outscored their defensive woes, while other years they were able to get big stops when scoring was at a minimum. But like any good team, they’ve stayed the course and kept the core in tact and it seems like they’ve finally got the pieces they need to put together a solid run.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Playoffs Success Shouldn’t Dictate Keefe’s Future
For Dubas, it could be his last run with the franchise depending on how things go, while for the core four the unknown awaits them if they have another first-round exit. But as was the case with the Washington Capitals who finally got over the hump to win a Stanley Cup in 2018 — the first of the Alex Ovechkin era — this team could be on track to taking the next step.
That’s not to say their going on a Cup run in 2022-23, but given the heartbreak and anguish this team and fanbase has endured over the past number of years, trusting the process and acknowledging their shortcomings could finally get the Maple Leafs into the second round.
