Following a 39-27-16 record last season, the New York Islanders squeezed into the playoffs as the Metropolitan Division’s third seed before falling in Round 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The season was an overall disappointment, despite the team surpassing expectations by reaching the playoffs.
Related: New York Islanders 2024-25 Stat Predictions
With the 2024-25 season upon us, a new opportunity for the Islanders lies ahead. The team may not have much financial flexibility. Still, they brought in Anthony Duclair and Maxim Tsyplakov through free agency, re-signed Mike Reilly, and let veterans Cal Clutterbuck, Robert Bortuzzo, and Sebastian Aho depart. With a full training camp and preseason under head coach Patrick Roy, the fanbase expects to build on last season. Given the team’s near-100-point pace under Roy, it’s understandable why expectations are high, but should they be?
250-260 Goals
Last season, the Islanders scored 245 goals, the 22nd most in the NHL. This was a disappointing number, especially with Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau combining for just 31. With the additions of Tsyplakov and Duclair, this goal total is bound to rise, but by how much?
If Duclair and Tsyplakov mesh well with the current core, a 15-20 goal boost is not out of the question. With Lee and Pageau looking to bounce back, this forward core could produce north of 270 goals. However, that is a lot that has to go their way, and this assumes everyone stays healthy for all 82 games, meaning the ultimate total is likely to land just above last season’s 245-goal finish.
230-240 Goals Against
Last season the Islanders gave up 258 goals, the 15th most in the NHL. However, they only gave up 158 goals at even strength, the 10th fewest in the league. With Roy’s defense now implemented and defenseman Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield healthy, this total is bound to decrease, potentially into the 220s. Although it’s possible for the team to give up fewer goals, they’re more likely to end up in the 230-240 range, which would still be around the 75th percentile, especially considering the health concerns surrounding their defense and goaltending.
Record Prediction – 42-31-9 (93 Points)
The Islanders are likely to finish with around 39-45 wins and eight to 12 overtime losses. A few of the blown leads that led to the 16 overtime losses should convert to wins, but the competition in the Eastern Conference has increased with the New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Washington Capitals all making significant improvements this offseason. While the Islanders are still among the better teams in the conference, they are in line for many more one-goal games.
At this point, the most likely outcome is for the Islanders to finish with 88-95 points in the standings. The Metropolitan Division is not the strongest, so there should be some easy points to pick up throughout the season against teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets and Philadelphia Flyers. The Atlantic Division is much stronger, which should be a good thing as the Islanders will be contending for Wild Card spots with the Senators, Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres. If these teams can tire themselves out during the regular season, the Islanders will have an easier time winning these cross-division matchups.
At this point, the Islanders are more likely than not to make the playoffs. Regarding placement, the team is not going to finish in the top two in the Metropolitan Division, but the third spot is up for grabs. If not, both Wild Card positions are in play, depending on the results of the Atlantic Division. Currently, I have the Islanders finishing in the second Wild Card spot and matching up with the Eastern Conference Champion New York Rangers.
Notable Key Matchups
The Islanders will face off against the Rangers four times this season (Nov. 3, Feb. 25, Mar. 3, and Apr. 10). This rivalry always produces tight matchups, and while the Rangers are the better team on paper, I bet the Islanders go 2-1-1 in these four games.
In their 26 divisional games this season, I feel pretty confident the Islanders can salvage a positive record, going 12-9-5. Winning games in the Atlantic Division will be tricky, so taking half of these matchups would be a success. While the Western Conference has weak teams like the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, and Chicago Blackhawks, the Islanders historically struggle on the California road trip, so none of these games should be taken lightly. Similar to the Atlantic Division, winning more than half of their matchups against Western Conference teams would be a success.
The Islanders won their first game of the regular season in 2023-24, marking just the third time they had done so since their season opener in the 2014-15 season against the Carolina Hurricanes. Matching up against the Utah Hockey Club at UBS Arena to open the season, the Islanders have a chance to set the tone for a season in which the franchise desperately needs to succeed.
