The NHL playoff race is heating up in the Eastern Conference. Barring an epic collapse down the stretch, the cutoff to qualify for the postseason will likely end up around 97-98 points. That means some good teams will end up missing out and hitting the golf course earlier than hoped. Which teams have the best odds of surviving the gauntlet?
Who’s Most Vulnerable?
We haven’t seen a season like this in years, where the playoff cutoff will be as high as it is, but which teams are the most vulnerable to missing out? The New York Islanders fell out of a playoff spot after their 4-3 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks last night and seem to be trending in the wrong direction. The Islanders have a 49.87 percent expected goals share (xG%) over their last 25 games, which is fine, but defense has been a problem.
The Islanders have been giving up 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes over their last 25 games, ranked 23rd in the NHL. That has been the trend throughout their season, but they’ve largely gotten by because Ilya Sorokin is one of the leading Vezina contenders. He’s saved 29.5 goals above expected, ranked first in the NHL. Can he drag them across the finish line for another three weeks? Time will tell.
Another team that may be vulnerable is the Boston Bruins. Like the Islanders, the Bruins’ five-on-five numbers raise some red flags. They have an xG% of 46.05 percent over their last 25 games and are allowing 2.95 expected goals per 60 minutes. Jeremy Swayman is also a leading candidate for the Vezina, and can he also drag the Bruins across the finish line?
The Islanders and Bruins also have a couple of game-breaking talents in Matthew Schaefer and David Pastrnak. Schaefer is the runaway favorite for the Calder Trophy, and he will likely get some Norris votes, too. Pastrnak may not be an award candidate, but we know how dangerous a scorer he is and has been for quite some time. That helps when you don’t have a team capable of tilting play at five-on-five.
The Metropolitan Division
The Metropolitan Division has been quite the rollercoaster this season. Teams like the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils have been disappointments, and that’s opened doors for teams like the Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Pittsburgh Penguins to make the postseason.
There are only two points that separate the Blue Jackets and Penguins, who hold down second and third place in the Metro, from being out of a playoff spot altogether. Still, they might have better odds of locking down a playoff berth than, say, the Islanders.
Let’s start with the Blue Jackets, who have become a completely different team since Rick Bowness took over as head coach. They’re 18-3-4 over their last 25 games and have surged into a playoff spot. It hasn’t been by accident, either, as they’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL over that stretch.
The Blue Jackets have an xG% of 53.42 percent over their last 25 games and have become a two-way force. They generate a ton of offense but also don’t allow much the other way, and Jet Greaves has been excellent in net. They appear to be a team destined for a playoff berth (MoneyPuck has them at 87.1 percent to make the playoffs), but they also seem capable of winning a round.
Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Penguins have defied the odds. Picked by most (including myself) to be in the running for Gavin McKenna, they look poised to clinch a playoff berth. They’re a solid five-on-five team, having totaled an xG% of 51.79 percent over their last 25 games, but there are some concerns.
One) The Penguins have turned into a high-flying, run-and-gun team under head coach Dan Muse. They generate a ton of offense, but they also give plenty of it back. They’re allowing 2.83 expected goals per 60 minutes over their last 25 games, and their goaltending is not what the Islanders and Bruins have in Sorokin and Swayman. They’ve shown they can outscore their problems on defense, and they generate more than they allow, but their situation could get dicey if their scoring dries up.
Can the Senators and Red Wings Make a Push?
How high are the stakes in Detroit? It’s certainly not a Stanley Cup or bust season, but it sure feels like they need to find a way into the playoffs. Steve Yzerman has been their general manager since 2019, but they’ve yet to make the playoffs under his watch.
The Red Wings are an interesting team. On one hand, their five-on-five numbers are solid. They have an xG% of 50.88 percent over their last 25 games. On the other hand, they have a goal differential of -4 at all strengths. They’re the only team in this article with a negative goal differential and chasing a playoff spot, and they’re trending in the wrong direction. Their 3-2 regulation loss to the Ottawa Senators reduced their playoff odds to 45.8 percent. It’s certainly not over for the Red Wings, but they’ve blown what was a 7-point cushion on a playoff spot.
Related: Red Wings’ 3 Biggest Games Left in 2025-26 Season
Speaking of the Senators, they’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL for most of this season, but especially their last 25 games. Their 57.21 xG% ranks first among all teams over the last 25 games. They have a goal differential of +23 at all strengths, and their goaltending is finally starting to come around after being among the worst in the NHL pre-Olympics.
The problem for the Senators now is that injuries are beginning to pile up. Thomas Chabot and Lassi Thomson could be out a while, and they’re already missing Jake Sanderson and Nick Jensen. That could cost them over the final three or so weeks of the regular season, but they continue to defy the odds and now hold down one of the wild-card spots in the East.
The East Will Come Down to the Wire
The final spots in the East feel like a crapshoot, given how tight the standings are, but let’s make some picks. The Blue Jackets have been one of the best teams in the NHL since Bowness took over, and it feels like they’re trending toward clinching. The Penguins have some concerns defensively and in net, but they’re in good shape at the moment. I would bet on them finishing third in the Metro.
As long as the Senators’ goaltending holds up, they should make the playoffs. They have the best five-on-five numbers of any team here, and that’s usually a good indicator of future success. Right now, it appears the Islanders and Red Wings are trending toward missing, but it will likely come down to the wire. It should make for an exciting final three weeks of the regular season.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck
