When the Edmonton Oilers are firing on all cylinders, we all know that they can score, but the focus for next season if they truly want to contend for the Stanley Cup is to lower their goals against. They’ll likely look at the Vegas Golden Knights as the team to beat next season since they just clinched the title of NHL champions.
It can be said that Edmonton gave Vegas the toughest matchup in the playoffs, but they became too reliant on their power play. They needed more scoring out of their top-six forwards like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane and Zach Hyman, but most importantly they gave up too many even-strength goals against (18-9 in favour of Vegas) in their six games against the eventual champs. As a result, their focus should be to improve at 5-on-5 in case they meet them again in the playoffs next season.
That said, Cody Ceci is a player that struggled at 5-on-5 and he’s being talked about in trade rumours as of late. He had a solid 2021-22 campaign; however, he was dealing with a groin injury this past season and suffered a regression in his play. But overall, there’s a growing belief that he’s the defenceman the team needs to upgrade from in order to truly contend for the Cup next season.
A name that has surfaced to upgrade the Oilers’ blue line recently is the New York Islanders’ pending unrestricted free agent Scott Mayfield, who is a 6-foot-5 right-shot defenceman; however, I made a comparison in an article recently between him and Ceci and noted that he’d likely cost more than Ceci’s $3.25 million cap hit a season. The analytics also showed that he might not be worth the risk and wouldn’t necessarily be that much of an upgrade over Edmonton’s current blueliner.
Related: Oilers Likely to Prep Offer for Pesce if Hurricanes Planning a Trade
On the other hand, Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Brett Pesce has emerged as a defenceman who could be on the trade block, and TSN’s Darren Dreger mentioned recently that the Oilers have an interest in him. Also, hockey insider Pierre LeBrun increased the trade buzz when he said Carolina is open to moving the steady D-man if he and the Hurricanes can’t come to an agreement on a contract extension. That said, when comparing the analytics between him and Ceci, it’s clear that Pesce is head and shoulders above the Oilers’ current option and if he becomes available, they should make their best pitch to acquire him. Let’s look at the numbers below to see why.
Pesce’s 5-On-5 Analytics Are Much Superior To Ceci’s
Pesce is a 6-foot-3, 206-pound right-shot defenceman who is in the final year of a six-year contract worth $4.025 million average annual value (AAV). The 28-year-old just put up a career-high 30 points and posted a plus-11 plus/minus rating, while averaging 22 minutes a night in 82 games in 2022-23. In comparison, the 6-foot-2 and 210-pound Ceci is coming off a 15-point campaign, a plus-11 rating and has two more seasons on his contract worth $3.25 million AAV.
TSN’s Dreger spoke more about the Oilers’ interest in Pesce on the “Got Yer Back” Podcast, saying, “When you define an area of need and want, [the Oilers] want to upgrade on what they have on Cody Ceci.” He added, “You have to be involved in those conversations [for Pesce] and I’m pretty sure the Oilers are.” That said, we compared the analytics between Pesce and Ceci below, and the metrics showed that the Hurricanes blueliner was far superior in several notable categories.
The following data was sourced from Natural Stat Trick and not only lists the metrics that Pesce and Ceci posted in categories at 5-on-5, but it also includes their ranking among defencemen in the NHL for that category, that played a minimum of 200 minutes during the 2022-23 regular season:
| Brett Pesce | Cody Ceci | |
| Corsi | 58.23% (9th) | 50.23% (116th) |
| Scoring Chances For Percentage | 57.38% (16th) | 50.11% (120th) |
| Expected Goals For Per 60 Minutes | 57.40 (14th) | 51.06 (101st) |
| Expected Goals Against Per 60 Minutes | 2.29 (23rd) | 2.69 (147th) |
| Scoring Chances Against Per 60 Minutes | 23.06 (11th) | 29.71 (155th) |
| Giveaways Per 60 minutes | 0.79 (9th) | 1.46 (72nd) |
Based on the data provided above, Pesce is solid defensively at even strength and outperformed Ceci in every category by a good margin and ranked no lower than 25th in any of the categories, among NHL defencemen who played a minimum of 200 minutes. Moreover, he played against quality competition in the process, with the opposition he played the most against at even strength during the 2022-23 campaign being: Jake Guentzel (35:21), Sidney Crosby (35:10), Rickard Rakell (29:58), Nick Suzuki (28:13), Steven Stamkos (27:55), Brayden Point (27:49), and Nikita Kucherov (27:46).
A Look at Pesce’s Potential Fit on Oilers’ Blue Line
The Oilers would have to move Ceci and his $3.25 million cap hit to make the money work to acquire the Carolina blueliner. However, as mentioned, the Hurricanes would only deal their defenceman if they can’t sort out a long-term extension, meaning, if available, there’s a risk if the Oilers were to trade for Pesce that it may be only as a rental for a season and he could sign elsewhere once his contract expires. However, even if the worst-case scenario is that his tenure in Edmonton would only be for one season, it’s a gamble worth taking for a defenceman as steady as him, as he could be one of the last pieces of the puzzle that the Oilers need to win a championship.
Moreover, we saw the Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard duo emerge as a solid pairing near the tail end of the 2022-23 season, so in the hypothetical scenario that the Oilers acquired Pesce, he’d be brought in to play with veteran Darnell Nurse and their defensive corps could look like this:
Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Brett Pesce
Brett Kulak – Vincent Desharnais
On that note, when Nurse is at the top of his game, he’s highly effective, but he’s prone to defensive lapses and chasing his man around the Oilers’ zone. Having a defensively sound player like Pesce would be a great complementary piece, and could help settle Nurse down in the same way that Ekholm did with Bouchard.
If the Oilers are going to make a serious run for the Cup next season, more firepower up front isn’t needed, but more stability on the back end is — and that’s exactly what Pesce could bring. It’s rumoured that the Buffalo Sabres are also interested in the Hurricanes’ defenceman as well, and if Carolina fails to secure a long-term extension with him, and if trade demands begin to surface, the Oilers will need to assess if they’re willing to part with the necessary assets that it would take to land him.
Should the Oilers pursue Pesce? If so, write your trade proposals in the comments below!