It might be just a tad bit early to look ahead to the 2025 offseason, but there are some big restricted free agent (RFA) contracts for the Philadelphia Flyers coming up. Let’s predict those deals now, just to see what the team might be working with cap-wise.
For full transparency, I did this last season, too, with mixed results on some of the projections (and the rationale). Among the four players who actually signed extensions, they got $11.3 million in total average annual value (AAV)—I projected them at $11.45 million. I was a bit low on the years for Owen Tippett, but the AAV was close to perfect. I’ll do my best to be even more accurate this time.
Cam York
Following a two-year bridge deal in the 2023 offseason, it’s safe to say that Cam York is looking to get paid. The 23-year-old defender has arguably been the Flyers’ best for the past two seasons—we can assume he will remain in this conversation for a third.
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While York’s teammates voted him as the Flyers’ most improved player for their 2023-24 campaign, I personally disagree with them. His magnum opus, in my eyes, was his showing in 2022-23. Albeit in an easier role, he was just as good defensively as he was last season—which is what mainly stood out—but the offense was a night-and-day difference.
Two seasons ago, York showed the offensive upside that he was drafted for. He took more risks, was significantly more dangerous with the puck, and generated more scoring chances as a result. Responsible enough defensively to still have that side of his game be a strength, he was exceptional. He limited himself offensively in a top-line role for the Flyers in his latest outing, but that might just be him figuring out what it takes to play those kinds of minutes.
My money would personally go to York improving in 2024-25 with this considered. Based on that, I think he’ll get paid pretty nicely. For some reason, there are certain defensemen who don’t get paid as much as they should—see Gustav Forsling of the Florida Panthers. My guess is that York will look for a long-term deal, which should be anywhere between six and eight years. I’ll settle in the middle at seven years and place the AAV at $7 million for $49 million total. Considering Travis Sanheim got $6.25 million AAV over eight years in 2022, that’s a somewhat fair price.
Morgan Frost
Now, I personally believe the writing is on the wall for Morgan Frost. Though I like him as a player and think he could be beneficial for the team in the long term if he has a good season in 2024-25, he just seems like the odd man out. Head coach John Tortorella has all but explicitly stated he doesn’t like the player, and general manager (GM) Danny Briere has been operating as though he expects him to be traded. Just for the sake of the argument, though, what could an extension look like?
Frost got some increased ice time toward the end of the 2023-24 season, but that was really because Tortorella had no other choice—Sean Couturier’s offensive upside vanished when he suffered a sports hernia, so they needed a new, internal first-line center. The 25-year-old played well, especially next to Tippett, but finished with 41 points in 71 games on the season. He was a good two-way centerman for the Orange and Black, but the point production could use a boost.
If Frost excels in a consistent role on the second line with players like Tippett and almost definitely one of Travis Konecny or Matvei Michkov, he could score close to 60 points in 2024-25. If he can do that and be responsible in his own zone, perhaps an extension is warranted. It’d likely have to be a longer-term contract, though.
Signing a two-year bridge deal in 2023 just like York, it’s time for the Flyers to pay up. Seeing as they drafted center Jett Luchanko and paid Konecny $8.75 million AAV, there just isn’t a lot of room for him positionally or cap-wise. However, if he impresses enough, he could get a deal. If that happens, I project a $5.75 million AAV contract over seven years, totaling $40.25 million. This is somewhat of a discount in terms of AAV if he shows something, in my eyes, but it’s about what second-line centers are going for nowadays.
Tyson Foerster
This is where I think the Flyers can have a little bit of leeway. Tyson Foerster is coming off of his entry-level contract (ELC) following the 2024-25 season, so either a bridge deal or a long-term contract is possible.
Foerster, just 22, was on the Flyers’ first line for most of last season. His defensive numbers were excellent next to Couturier, but the offense might be something to work on—he had 20 goals and 33 points in 77 games. But he had 13 goals in his final 29 contests, so the improvement was there. Getting a full season of experience and possibly getting the chance to play with Michkov for an extended period of time could really boost the offensive numbers.
Foerster is an excellent shooter in open space and is one of the Flyers’ most important young players. It’s hard to exactly project where he’ll be in his age-23 campaign, but chances are that there will be progression. Even with that, I think the final decision will be a bridge contract. Signing a long-term deal at his age would be fairly risky for both the team and the player. I think that a three-year deal worth $4.5 million per season ($13.5 million total) would be agreeable to both sides—it pays him what he deserves but doesn’t handcuff Philadelphia, either.
Noah Cates
For our last notable RFA, I have Noah Cates. He signed a two-year deal worth $2.625 million AAV in the 2023 offseason. In my opinion, the 25-year-old’s contract has aged so perfectly that he could very well re-up that deal.
At this point, Cates has proven that his upside comes with his defense. He is terrific in his own zone but doesn’t have the offensive talent to inspire much development. He took on a bottom-six role last year with pretty good results for that type of player. He was elite at preventing scoring chances—the goaltending wasn’t great for the Orange and Black, so he did have a somewhat misleading minus-8 rating.
Overall, for what Cates is, I think another two-year deal worth $2.5 million AAV ($5 million in total) this time around is fair. I expect him to continue being a solid shutdown winger for the Flyers and not put up a ton of points. He’d be 28 by the time this deal is over, so it would set him up nicely to enter free agency if Philadelphia’s prospects push him down the lineup a bit and make his presence less essential.
Other Flyer RFAs
The two other semi-notable RFA deals I see are with Olle Lycksell and Ronnie Attard. They played in Philadelphia toward the end of last season and got some decent results. I assume they’ll be in the American Hockey League (AHL) for most of 2024-25, but both are still serviceable NHL depth players in my eyes. Just for fun, I project them both getting one-way deals for two years at $0.85 million AAV ($1.7 million total).
With these contracts and assuming Lycksell and Emil Andrae ($0.903 million AAV) make the team in 2025-26, all 23 available roster spots would be gone with barely any money to spare. Even if Ryan Ellis is placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR), they would have $88.8 million taken up entering the 2025 offseason—the 2024-25 salary cap ceiling is $88 million, just for reference.
Keep in mind that these players could always take more team-friendly deals, but it wouldn’t exactly help by a lot. I suspect the Flyers could trade players like Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.1 million AAV), Joel Farabee ($5 million AAV), and perhaps a few others, so the situation isn’t as bad as it seems. Still, the Flyers need to be smart with their money moving forward.
