Predicting the Lightning’s 2020-21 Bottom Six Forwards

Whenever a franchise wins the Stanley Cup in the salary cap era, you know that change will soon follow. It’s hard enough to keep great teams together, but with the threat of a cap crunch always looming, it makes retaining a complete team with those talented players borderline impossible.

For the Tampa Bay Lightning, this talent bleed occurred throughout the offseason after they won the 2020 Stanley Cup. It started with the departure of veteran players who signed low-cost, one-year deals last season, and seemingly ended with a trade to clear some much-needed cap space.

Related: Paquette’s Legacy as the Lightning’s Big Man

Due to these moves and injuries, the Lightning’s forward corps will look significantly different than the group that won the Stanley Cup. Nowhere will these changes be more apparent than in Tampa Bay’s bottom six, where the franchise will be seeing some turnover after a busy offseason.

Lightning’s Third-Line Should Remain Together

At the 2020 trade deadline, the Lightning took two big swings, acquiring forwards Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. While these players were costly additions, they paid off almost immediately in the playoffs, where they found chemistry flanking Yanni Gourde on the third-line.

This line was, consistently, one of Tampa Bays’ best, as they brought needed energy and toughness to the team each and every time they set foot on the ice. This tenacity, along with Gourde and Coleman’s scoring acumen, made this line a constant threat that was annoying to play against.

Blake Coleman Tampa Bay Lightning
As a trade deadline addition, Blake Coleman found success on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s third-line, playing alongside Yanni Gourde and Barclay Goodrow. (Photo by Scott Audette /NHLI via Getty Images)

Given how well they played together throughout the playoffs, breaking up this third-line would be a classic example of trying to fix something that isn’t broken. So, expect Tampa Bay to start the season with this line intact and acting as one of the driving forces of the team throughout the shortened 2020-21 season.

Lightning’s Fourth-Line Seeing Meaningful Changes

For the first time in six seasons, Cedric Paquette won’t be the starting fourth-line center for the Lightning. This will change the complexion of the fourth-line, as he was a pesty, physical presence that every team needs to compete in the NHL.

With his departure, however, Tampa Bay signaled that it was time for someone else to step up and take over his ice-time. Given where he is at in his development, the heir-apparent to the starting fourth-line center role should be Mitchell Stephens.

Throughout the 2019-20 season, Stephens played in 38 games, posting three goals and six points. While these statistics aren’t mind-blowing, he never looked out of place on the ice, and in a few starts in the playoffs, he seemed ready to take on starting NHL ice-time.

Mitchell Stephens Tampa Bay Lightning
While he may not have always been perfect, Mitchell Stephens looked ready to take on starting ice-time for the Lightning in 38 games played during the 2019-20 season. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Alongside Stephens, we know that Pat Maroon will be returning to the Lightning’s fourth-line after he signed a two-year extension this offseason, bringing his particular brand of physicality and leadership back to the franchise.

This leaves one last question mark in the Lightning’s bottom-six, which could be filled by one of two players. Most likely, it appears that Alexander Volkov will be taking over that spot, as he has been on the verge with Tampa Bay for the better part of a year now. He signed a one-year ‘show me’ contract this offseason that sets him up to take that next step with the franchise or move on next offseason.

Related: Tampa Bay Lightning Prospect Profile: Cal Foote

However, this final spot could also go to Mathieu Joseph, who has already played a complete NHL season with Tampa Bay. While he regressed in 2019-20, he is still a young, fast forward with offensive upside that could rebound and take over this role on the fourth-line.

Lightning’s Bottom Six Will Be a Driving Force

While they may be known more for their top-six scoring potential, a key factor in the Lightning’s 2020 Stanley Cup victory was the play of their bottom-six. Even with some changes heading into the 2020-21 season, this will still be a focal point of the franchise.

If they can keep Goodrow, Gourde, and Coleman together, then that could be one of the best third-lines in all of the NHL. And, despite losing Paquette’s physicality, a fourth-line of Maroon, Stephens, and Volkov/ Joseph brings a unique element that may not be as physical but has a higher skill-ceiling.

Barclay Goodrow Tampa Bay Lightning
While he may not be the most productive player on the ice, Goodrow should play an important role in the Lightning’s bottom-six throughout the 2020-21 season. (Photo by Scott Audette /NHLI via Getty Images)

So, even with some changes, the Lightning’s bottom-six looks like a strength for the franchise. If these players can live up to their potential, then they will be a key part of Tampa Bay’s shot at repeating as Stanley Cup Champions.