The Colorado Avalanche face a common issue plaguing contenders in the NHL. Though the salary cap continues to trend upward, the team has to make tough decisions in order to ice a team that can compete for the Stanley Cup.
One decision that may not sound all that tough is giving star winger Mikko Rantanen a new contract. The 27-year-old forward is entering the final year of a six-year, $55 million pact signed prior to the 2019-20 season. With the team intent on locking him up, what could a new deal look like?
Signing Rantanen is a Priority
Locking Rantanen up with a contract extension has been a priority of the team for some time. While that might not mean that an extension is looming, it at least puts both sides on the same path. There have been contentious contract negotiations around the league, but this doesn’t appear to be one of them.
Nathan MacKinnon is understandably the center of attention. He has been one of the best players in the league for years and captured his first Hart Trophy as league MVP in 2023-24. Despite his $12.6 million cap hit, it is hard to argue about the value he provides. If anything, he allows the talented Finnish forward to fly under the radar, impossible as that may seem.
Rantanen is coming off the three best seasons of his career. He tallied 36 goals and 92 points in 2021-22. He followed that up with 55 goals and 105 points in 2022-23, both career-highs. He notched a career-best 62 assists a season ago, registering 104 points. If Cale Makar can join the two of them in the 100-point club this season, it would be the first time since the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1992-93 to feature a trio of 100-point players.
Rantanen and MacKinnon (and Makar) make the Avalanche go. Failing to lock him up would set the team back years while putting even more pressure on the others to make up the difference. Keeping him in Denver for the foreseeable future must happen.
Comparable Deals
There is already a good comparable on his own team in MacKinnon. In 2023, MacKinnon signed an eight-year, $100.80 million contract ($12.6 million average annual value – AAV). Entering the 2024-25 season, that puts him only behind Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs ($13.25 million AAV) for tops in the league.
Rantanen likely won’t get quite what MacKinnon did, but he probably won’t be too far off. Perhaps the deal most worth looking at is the one William Nylander signed with the Maple Leafs. In January 2024, he inked an eight-year, $92 million extension ($11.50 million AAV). He finished the 2023-24 season just behind Rantanen in all three categories, notching 40 goals, 58 assists, and 98 points.
Another good comparable is Artemi Panarin’s deal with the New York Rangers. The Russian winger was 27 when he signed a seven-year, $81.5 million deal ($11.64 million AAV). The two have similar peaks, though Panarin’s 120-point season of a year ago trumps anything Rantanen has done.
Finally, there is David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins. He was coming off a 61-goal, 113-point season when he inked an eight-year, $90 million deal ($11.25 million AAV) with the Bruins. Pasta isn’t as complete a player as Rantanen despite being about even offensively.
Rantanen is arguably better and a year younger than Nylander. His ability to play center also gives him an advantage over Panarin, as does the fact that Panarin’s deal was signed five years ago. Pastrnak’s production and AAV seem to be the closest fit to what we’re looking at currently.
What Will It Be?
So, what will Rantanen end up signing for? Given the deals handed out to guys like Pastrnak and Panarin, it wouldn’t be surprising to see something in the seven or eight-year range carrying a $12 million AAV price tag. That would put him squarely ahead of his contemporaries but just behind MacKinnon in the Avalanche hierarchy.
There is always the possibility that he takes a bit of a hometown discount while still earning more than the $9.25 million AAV he currently makes. If the Avalanche can somehow get him in the $10.5-$11.5 million AAV range, it would be a huge win for the team.
Either way, look for Rantanen to be a member of the Avalanche for the bulk of his career. More importantly, it would ensure that the team’s core will remain in place to compete for a Stanley Cup for years to come.
