2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Predictions

The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs are here, and Round 1 is set and ready to go. The writers at The Hockey Writers took a poll on the first-round matchups and cast their votes on who they think will win each series, how many games, and the series MVP (most valuable player).

Anything can happen come playoff time. After each round, we will have a new set of predictions, as well as a look back at what we got right (and wrong) in this one.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators Predictions

Carolina Hurricanes: 85.7% of votes
Ottawa Senators: 14.3% of votes

The Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators are two excellent defensive teams that both know how to score. The Hurricanes have been here plenty of times and had their most productive season ever, while the Senators showed great resiliency throughout the season and got to this point despite all of the noise all season long.

CAR in 6 Games: 50%
CAR in 7 Games: 21.4%
OTT in 7 Games: 14.3%
CAR in 5 Games: 7.1%
CAR in 4 Games: 7.1%

It was a bit shocking to see some voters think this could be over in five games or less, but the Hurricanes are a serious threat. This series has the potential to be very tight, go to multiple overtimes, and go the distance. But with games that tight, every single goal is going to carry some significant weight.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Seth Jarvis (21.4%)
Nikolaj Ehlers (14.3%)
Sebastian Aho (14.3%)

The Hurricanes have so many players to pick from. With voters heavily leaning toward the Hurricanes, it was no shock to see most of the MVP votes go their way, but beyond the three listed already, four other Hurricanes players received votes, too.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins Predictions

Buffalo Sabres: 71.5% of votes
Boston Bruins: 28.5% of votes

The Buffalo Sabres are finally back, and look like a dangerous group heading into the playoffs. After missing the playoffs for 14 straight seasons, they were able to capture the lead of the Atlantic Division. The Boston Bruins, meanwhile, defied the odds and found some excellent depth scoring throughout the season, stuck to the Bruins’ identity, and secured a wild card spot just one season after selling major assets.

BUF in 6 Games: 64.3%
BOS in 7 Games: 14.3%
BUF in 7 Games: 7.1%
BUF in 5 Games: 7.1%
BOS in 5 Games: 7.1%

There is a lot of confidence in the Sabres finishing off the series, but with the odds that it goes pretty late, hitting six or seven games.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Tage Thompson (28.6%)
Jeremy Swayman (21.4%)
Rasmus Dahlin (14.3%)

Tage Thompson has established himself in the conversation for the top 10 centers in the league, and is one of the best goal-scorers in a stacked Atlantic Division for that category. Rasmus Dahlin has also built a great reputation and should be in the running for the Norris Trophy this season, and for many years to come. Now is their chance to showcase themselves in a playoff atmosphere.

Jeremy Swayman had an unbelievable bounce-back season after his 2024-25 season was tainted by contract concerns and was never able to get up to speed. His previous playoff performances prove he is capable of dominating a series, and the Bruins may need it more than ever.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning: 60% of votes
Montreal Canadiens: 40% of votes

There is a lot to like about both teams here. The Tampa Bay Lightning have rearranged their core and reworked their depth and look as dangerous as ever, while the Montreal Canadiens have a young, fast, and high-scoring team. While experience is certainly on the Lightning’s side, the Canadiens were here last season and will have their tempers settled.

TB in 6 Games: 53.3%
MTL in 7 Games: 26.7%
MTL in 6 Games: 13.3%
TB in 5 Games: 6.7%

The Lightning are the favourites heading into this series, but as the series goes on, voters are giving the Canadiens a better chance. Once the series hits the Game 6 mark, it could be anybody’s series.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Nikita Kucherov (40%)
Cole Caufield (20%)
Brayden Point / Lane Hutson (13.3%)

Nikita Kucherov leading the way here is no shock. He is one of the most polarizing players in the league, and come playoff time, he knows what to do. One hesitation on Kucherov is that over the last three playoffs, he has only one goal. He needs to find the back of the net more.

Cole Caufield finished second in goal-scoring this season, hitting the 50-goal mark for the first time in his career. If he can continue that into the playoffs, he and the Canadiens are in a great place to succeed. Lane Hutson certainly has a shot at the MVP here, too. He is so dynamic with the puck and has taken some big steps on the defensive side of the game.

Brayden Point has always been a great asset in the playoffs, but after a down year in the regular season, the hope is that he can bounce back.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers Predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins: 73.3% of votes
Philadelphia Flyers: 26.7% of votes

Like the Lightning/Canadiens series, we have one very experienced team going against a young team with lots of skill. It is clear that voters are valuing experience in these polls. The great seasons from Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson highlight the Penguins, but they got incredible depth play from what could be looked at as a band of misfits with Egor Chinakhov, Anthony Mantha, and others.

The Philadelphia Flyers are surging on the play from their young guys. Owen Tippett, Matvei Michkov, and even rookie Porter Martone have been great down the stretch. If they can stay focused on playing their game, they could come out on top.

PIT in 6 Games: 40%
PIT in 7 Games: 26.7%
PHI in 6 Games: 20%
PHI in 7 Games: 6.7%
PIT in 5 Games: 6.7%

Having the Battle of Pennsylvania go any less than six games would be a disservice to the game. There is a lot to like about both teams, but having the X-factor of multiple Stanley Cup winners on the roster gives the Penguins the edge here.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Sidney Crosby (46.7%)
Matvei Michkov (20%)
Erik Karlsson (13.3%)

Crosby being the MVP, if the Penguins win, is nearly a guarantee. He is still playing some of the best hockey of his career, and dragged a team projected to contend for the top pick in the draft to the playoffs.

Karlsson had a great second half of the season, and looking back at the 2017 run with the Ottawa Senators, counting him out is never the right answer.

If the Flyers take the series, there are quite a few MVP candidates to pick from, but Michkov has been excellent down the stretch leading up to the postseason.

Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild Predictions

Dallas Stars: 60% of votes
Minnesota Wild: 40% of votes

It is a shame these two have to face each other in the first round. Both the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. They both have great goaltending, a game-breaking defenseman, and, especially on the wings, dominant forwards.

DAL in 7 Games: 33.3%
MIN in 7 Games: 26.7%
DAL in 6 Games: 20%
MIN in 6 Games: 13.3%

This one is almost certainly going the distance. A seven-game series between these two teams will be one of the best first-round series in a while.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Jason Robertson (46.7%)
Quinn Hughes (26.7%)
Matt Boldy (13.3%)

Jason Robertson continues to add to his excellent resume, coming up just shy of 50 goals and 100 points. He is one of the best wingers in the league, and on a team with Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and others, he still stands out above the rest. He is that good.

We all know how great Quinn Hughes is. Since joining the Wild, he has changed them from a good playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender. If they win, it will likely be on the back of their cornerstone defenseman.

Matt Boldy got a few votes here, too. He posted very similar numbers to Robertson, though he missed some games, hurting his season totals a bit.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings Predictions

Colorado Avalanche: 93.3% of votes
Los Angeles Kings: 6.7% of votes

I’m not sure there has been a THW playoff poll that was this one-sided. Usually, even against a juggernaut like the Colorado Avalanche, there are some believers in the lower seed, but not so much in this case. The Los Angeles Kings are statistically one of the worst teams to make the playoffs in a long time, but they were picking up their game in the tail end of the season.

COL in 4 Games: 46.7%
COL in 5 Games: 40%
COL in 6 Games: 6.7%
LAK in 7 Games: 6.7%

Seeing 86.7 percent of voters having the series over without the Kings notching two wins is pretty telling. The Avalanche look unbeatable at this point, and the Kings don’t look like they have the punch to even get to Game 6.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Nathan MacKinnon (73.3%)
Martin Necas (13.3%)
Scott Wedgewood, Artemi Panarin (6.7%)

There is no doubt that Nathan MacKinnon should be the favourite here. Not much to break down with that. Martin Necas had an excellent season with the Avalanche, and could be in the conversation here, too. Scott Wedgewood, who will be in the Vezina Trophy conversation, could be the MVP, too.

Looking at the Kings, if they win the series, and that is a big if, Artemi Panarin will be the difference-maker, but Anton Forsberg deserves a nod here, too, as one of the voters noted.

They stated, “He’ll almost certainly get the start in net over Kuemper; he’s been pretty lights-out recently, and they’ll need him to keep that up to have a shot to win, which I genuinely think they can.”

Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks Predictions

Edmonton Oilers: 60% of votes
Anaheim Ducks: 40% of votes

Back-to-back Stanley Cup Final losses will have the Edmonton Oilers as hungry as ever, but their regular season performance wasn’t as confidence-inducing as years prior. The Anaheim Ducks are entering the playoffs in a similar role as some other teams already mentioned. They are extremely young, are flooded with talent, and could give the Oilers a run for their money.

EDM in 6 Games: 33.3%
ANA in 7 Games: 20%
ANA in 6 Games: 20%
EDM in 5 Games: 20%
EDM in 7 Games: 6.7%

This series can go a few ways. The votes are all over the board, and despite having Connor McDavid and all of the experience they have, there is still some hesitancy on this series.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Connor McDavid (53.3%)
Lukas Dostal (13.3%)
Six other players received one vote

Win or lose, odds are McDavid will be the MVP. He has won the Conn Smythe and Olympic MVP before winning either a gold medal or the Stanley Cup. If the Ducks win, it will have to be Lukas Dostal who shuts down the Oilers’ offense, and he would certainly deserve the MVP.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth Predictions

Vegas Golden Knights: 53.3% of votes
Utah Mammoth: 46.7% of votes

This will be a very exciting series. The Utah Mammoth are heading to the playoffs, and the Delta Center will be one of the best buildings to be in, while the Vegas Golden Knights will be upset with anything but a Stanley Cup.

UTA in 6 Games: 33.3%
VGK in 6 Games: 26.7%
UTA/VGK in 7 Games: 13.3%
VGK in 5 Games: 6.7%
VGK in 4 Games: 6.7%

If the series hits the six-game point, the odds lean towards Utah getting their first series win. Some voters are giving the Golden Knights a chance to end the series in four or five games. While that is unlikely, the Golden Knights are a team willing to do whatever it takes.

Series MVP (Top 3)
Clayton Keller (20%)
Dylan Guenther (20%)
Jack Eichel (20%)

There were quite a few players to get votes here, but Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Jack Eichel, understandably, led the way in votes. There are so many who could take over the series; this may have been the hardest vote.

Be sure to check back after Round 1 to see how we did, and following that will be the Round 2 predictions!