It’s time for the gold-medal game, and the matchup is what everyone hoped it would be. It’s a rematch of the 4 Nations Face-Off, with the Americans seeking redemption against Connor McDavid and Canada.
In the bronze-medal game, we get another matchup that should be entertaining between the surprise of the tournament in Slovakia, taking on Finland.
Here is who I think will take home gold, silver, and bronze.
Canada vs. USA
We get another instalment of the greatest rivalry in the sport. The last time these two teams met, Connor McDavid broke the hearts of Americans in Boston.
The circumstances are different now, the rosters are different, and the stakes are higher at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Quinn Hughes is available to the USA now, but Canada also has the emerging superstar Macklin Celebrini.
There are a few injuries on the Canadian side of the puck, with Josh Morrissey and Sidney Crosby both missing the semifinal over Finland, plus Nathan MacKinnon playing injured.
I think, regardless of a good win over Sweden and advancing past Slovakia in the semifinals, many would agree the Americans haven’t reached the full potential of their play.
When I look at the two teams and break down the rosters, I truly do believe that on paper, USA is stronger. Canada has the edge in top-tier talent, and I think they also have a better forward core. When it comes to the defence core and goaltending, I don’t think there is much of a competition: the Americans take it.
However, as we’ve seen in the last year, when you put the two teams on the ice, it doesn’t always play out the way you expect. So, will it play out?
Related: Canada’s 2026 Olympic Men’s Hockey Roster
This is by far the toughest game of the tournament to call, and I couldn’t be happier that this is what we get to watch as the gold-medal game.
I trust the best Canadian players more than I trust the top Americans when it comes down to the biggest games.
McDavid has been on a different level this tournament, MacKinnon has come up huge twice, and Celebrini has arguably been the best performing Canadian forward. If Crosby plays, he thrives in the biggest moments, and apparently, he’s had a huge impact even when he hasn’t been able to suit up.
Jordan Binnington has been solid and so has Connor Hellebuyck, but when the lights are the brightest and they’re playing for their countries, we’ve seen how it has gone. Binnington robbed Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk during overtime in the 4 Nations final to help Canada win that crucial game.
From what I’ve seen in the past between these two teams, it’s obvious it’ll be a tight game, but I give Canada the slight edge.
I also think the game being called in the IIHF rulebook rather than the NHL rulebook is a benefit to Canada. Although the Tkachuks are still going to try to get in McDavid and Celebrini’s heads, Canada can match the chirping as well as the physical play with no problem.
The American women’s team broke Canadian hearts Thursday, but I don’t see it going the same way in the gold-medal game.
Slovakia vs. Finland
I’m happy this is the bronze-medal game, and it’s not just because it means we get Canada taking on the USA in the gold-medal game. I’m not sure there is a tangible way to prove this, but I feel like European countries take the bronze-medal game just as seriously as the gold, while the two North American teams are far less interested in it.
On top of that, this should be a fun game. Both teams are looking to medal in back-to-back Olympics as Finland won gold at the 2022 Winter Olympics while Slovakia took home bronze.
Finland shot itself in the foot against Canada after taking a two-goal lead. For some reason, instead of continuing to press for offence and keep pressure on Canada, they tried to play the trap and let Canada come at them in waves. They were outshot 31-9 in the final two periods of play.
Slovakia looked nervous early in their game against the USA and were simply overmatched. They had a tough time generating tons of opportunities and struggled to control the puck.
Although Slovakia took their first matchup 4-1, Finland has looked much better since that opening game. I also suspect Juuse Saros will play far better than he did that day.
Slovakia has been a fantastic story and really fun to watch. It’s a shame to say, but I think Slovakia goes home empty-handed this year and Finland will medal in back-to-back Winter Olympics.
