Predicting the Maple Leafs’ Starting Goaltender in 2026-27

The John Chayka era has started with a bang. The new Toronto Maple Leafs GM traded goaltender Joseph Woll last Tuesday, which was the first domino to fall in what has already been a busy offseason. Chayka has been open about his desire to change the team’s defence, and he did that by acquiring blueliner Emil Andrae from the Philadelphia Flyers in the Woll trade.

Chayka then continued his work on the blue line by trading for and signing soon-to-be free agent Darren Raddysh to an eight-year deal on Friday. With these moves alone, the D-core already looks better than it did this past season. The future of Morgan Rielly and the health of Chris Tanev are still uncertain, but the blue line is improved either way.

What hasn’t improved is Toronto’s goaltending situation now that Woll is gone. Anthony Stolarz remains on the roster, as does Samuel Ersson who was acquired in the Woll trade. Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov have been terrific for the organization’s American Hockey League affiliate Toronto Marlies and remain under contract heading into next season.

With $18.8 million in cap space and questions about the stability in net, who will be the Maple Leafs’ starting goaltender in 2026-27?

Anthony Stolarz

As of now, Stolarz is expected to be the starter. In 2025-26, Stolarz had a 10-10-3 record, with a 3.28 goals-against average (GAA) and a .893 save percentage (SV%). The team’s goaltending struggled across the board this season, and to be fair, so did the defence. Stolarz is just one season removed from a brilliant 2024-25 campaign, and two seasons from his Stanley Cup victory with the Florida Panthers. In those two seasons, Stolarz was 37-15-5, with a .925 SV% and a 2.08 GAA in 61 appearances, 57 of which were starts.

Stolarz has proven to be one of the best backup netminders in the NHL. However, this past season was a disaster, so we can count it as a wash and forget about it. However, heading into October, we cannot foget the number of games he started. Over the last five seasons, he started 23, 12, 24, 33, and 25 games.

Whether it’s health or his role as backup, Stolarz has never started more than 33 games in a season in his decade-long career, and it would be foolish to count on him to do so in 2026-27. If the plan is for him to remain on the roster and be part of a tandem, that’s fine. Stolarz and Woll were terrific in 2024-25, and I have no doubt he can bounce back next season. But as things stand, the Maple Leafs will be relying on Hildeby and/or Akhtyamov to carry the rest of the load. Until Stolarz can prove otherwise, that load will be 45 games or more.

Hildeby is a capable NHL netminder, and the Maple Leafs would be right to keep him, but in what capacity? If the expectation is for the team to be better next season, that won’t be hard to do, and the duo of Stolarz and Hildeby should be sufficient. But if the team wants to return to the playoffs and be a force, that seems like a tall order for those two goalies.

The schedule next season will increase to 84 games, and knowing Stolarz’s history and Hildeby’s inexperience, Toronto will need at least three goalies to get them through the season. Akhtyamov was brilliant for the Marlies in their Calder Cup run, but is he the right choice to carry the rest of the workload?

Ersson, meanwhile, has a 59-47-17 record over the last three seasons with the Flyers, which is admirable for a goaltender in a tandem, but his SV% of .881 and GAA of 3.03 are not favourable. Sure, Philadelphia’s defence was inconsistent, but Toronto will suffer some growing pains as well.

Overall, Hildeby should get his shot, but it’s difficult to trust Stolarz. He’s good when he’s available, but he’s not always available. And when he’s not available, the Maple Leafs will be forced to rely on unknowns. In an important bounce-back season, inexperience should not be a part of the equation. Akhtyamov has all the makings of a good goaltender, but his time isn’t now. Ersson is a good option behind a solid 50-game starter, but as a tandem, I’m not so sure.

Sergei Bobrovsky

If the Maple Leafs want to make the playoffs and contend in a competitive Atlantic Division, they will need the goaltending to match, and of all the goaltenders available, Sergei Bobrovsky is at the top of the list.

The 37-year-old is coming off of one of the worst statistical seasons of his 16-year career, going 27-23-1 with a .877 SV% and a 3.07 GAA. However, like Toronto, the Panthers had a season riddled with injuries and inconsistency, so some think Bobrovsky deserves a pass, which is fine. But he will be 38 when the season starts, so if you see this as him beginning to decline, that’s fine too.

If last season was just an anomaly, recent history would be more than enough reason to take a chance on the future Hall-of-Famer. From 2021-22 to 2024-25, Bobrovsky went 132-63-12 with a .908 SV% and a 2.64 GAA, and won two Stanley Cups in three Final appearances.

On a team searching for a new identity, adding an established veteran who has championship pedigree and can make up for some of the defensive deficiencies could be a smart choice. Chayka has shown he is willing to swing big to improve his roster, even if it’s a risk, and signing Bobrovsky would definitely be that.

That said, there’s a confidence that floods a locker room when a star player arrives, and adding Bobrovsky would not only do that, but it would tell the team that management believes their roster can win now. Whether they can or can’t, Bobrovsky would certainly improve their chances.

Toronto has the cap space to make a splash like this, but Bobrovsky’s asking price is very high. According to multiple reports, Bobrovsky is asking for $6-$7 million per season on a six to seven-year deal. The price is fine, but the term for an aging goaltender is too risky no matter what his resume says. It’s reasonable to assume he won’t get the term he’s looking for, certainly not at that price.

If the Maple Leafs decide to go down this road, anything more than two years for Bobrovsky would not be wise, especially with young goaltenders waiting in the wings. Signing him would most likely result in Stolarz being moved, but doing so in favour of a goalie who consistently starts 53-plus games is fine with me.

Jordan Binnington

Like Bobrovsky, Jordan Binnington is coming off his worst statistical season with the St. Louis Blues, going 13-20-7 with a .873 SV% and a 3.33 GAA. However, in the two seasons prior, he went 56-43-10 with a .906 SV% and a 2.76 GAA. More importantly, Binnington has started 54 games or more in three of the last four seasons.

He is a streaky goaltender who needs a good D-core in front of him, as we saw in his last two runs with Team Canada. With a new head coach, Jim Hiller, who is known for his defensive structure, and new additions to the roster, the Maple Leafs’ blue line should be better than what Binnington has had with the Blues recently. He has also gained a reputation as a big-game goalie. So, if and when the Maple Leafs reach the playoffs, we know that’s when we’ll get the best out of him.

His name has been on the trade block for the last few seasons, and it seems like the Blues would move him for the right price, but the cost will be high. The good news is that he has one season left at $6 million, which means the cost can’t be too high.

Jake Oettinger

I contribute to The Hockey Writers‘ coverage of the Dallas Stars, so this one is for me. Jake Oettinger is signed through 2032-33 at $8.25 million per season, and his no-trade clause kicks in on July 1, so the Maple Leafs would have to act quickly. The Stars are tight against the cap and have some money-related issues to solve, so for the right price, they might consider parting with Oettinger.

Again, Oettinger had his worst statistical season, but the dip was drastic. In 2025-26, the 27-year-old netminder went 35-12-6 with a .899 SV% and a 2.59 GAA. In his five seasons as a starter, Oettinger is 173-70-26 with a .909 SV% and a 2.56 GAA. He has also started 53-plus games in each of the last four seasons.

Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the league, so we can’t expect Oettinger to have that kind of support in Toronto. However, he is accustomed to playing heavy minutes and carrying a franchise on his back. Plus, he’s young. Getting him would solidify the Maple Leafs’ crease for years and officially open a new window.

What is a Realistic Expectation?

I don’t think that the Maple Leafs will land Oettinger, although I would love to see it. Even if the Stars were interested in moving him, the price will probably be too high. However, the first three options are realistic. Stolarz is already on the team, and right now, he’s the guy. Bobrovsky would have to adjust his financial expectations, but he would be a great fit as well.

The Maple Leafs might not be rebuilding, but they are starting a new chapter. Bringing in an established netminder would be a huge boost. Binnington can be a liability as much as he can be a positive impact. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get, but he plays very well when the lights are the brightest, and in Toronto, they are always the brightest. Chayka has already proven he’s not scared to take a swing. So, with the goaltending, will he play it safe, or swing for the fences?