Rangers’ Lottery Results Aren’t Worst-Case Scenario Like It Seems

After months of anticipation, the New York Rangers’ selection for the 2026 NHL Draft has been determined. The organization will pick five overall.

On paper, it looks like the worst-case scenario, considering the Rangers had the third-best odds of landing first overall going into Tuesday night, with only a roughly 30 percent chance to move back a maximum of two spots.

While the ping pong balls didn’t bounce the Rangers’ way, it’s not an unmitigated disaster.

Still Potential to Draft Difference Maker

At this point, it would be a shocker to see consensus first-overall pick, Gavin McKenna, not wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater on draft night – let alone a red, white and blue one.

Yet, the Rangers will likely have a shot at someone who can turn into a game-changer for the organization. For one, more often than not, players that we expect to be picked higher tend to fall, aside from, of course, the consensus first-overall pick.

Some examples of this in recent draft years include Matvei Michkov at seventh overall in 2023, James Hagens at seventh overall in 2025 and Ivan Demidov at fifth overall the year prior.

Does Ivar Stenberg or Chase Reid fall to the Rangers this year? For April, our Jordan Orth had them ranked first and third on his draft board, respectively. If not, Carson Carels or Caleb Malhotra could be options, and all have the potential to become top players in the NHL at their positions.

Rangers No Longer Can Get Delusional

The other positive is that the Rangers can’t rely on the first-overall pick to rescue the franchise. Although it was the third-best odds, the Blueshirts only had an 11.5 percent chance at winning the top prize. It was never a likely scenario, although it would have provided a speed bridge.

Regardless of whether they won the lottery, more work needed to be done to retool the team back into contention. The Rangers are at least two or three big pieces away from accomplishing that goal. Realistically, the fifth-overall pick could present one of those pieces – but keep in mind that the player likely won’t be able to make a major impact until 2027-28 if they are lucky.

The rest of the moves likely need to come via trade, given the weak free agency crop this year. If available, Jason Robertson should emerge as the Rangers’ top trade target. Also, they should monitor the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews, although that may be increasingly unlikely now, given that the lottery win may have changed the morale around the Original Six Canadian franchise.

A Rival Did Not Win

Here’s another silver lining: no other teams in the Metro Division won a top-three selection on Tuesday. Additionally, no other rivals will even pick inside the top 10.

Had the New Jersey Devils won, who had a 5.1 percent chance at landing second overall, or the New York Islanders cashed in at their 4.2 percent chance at winning third overall, that would have been disastrous.

Instead, the Rangers will have a shot at drafting someone special, while the status quo in a weak Metro Division outside the Carolina Hurricanes may not change. This bodes well for a quicker turnaround for the Rangers.

Sure, the Rangers had a legitimate shot at winning the draft lottery and came close during both drawings. Still, it was always wishful thinking, with less than a 12 percent chance at first overall.

Plan A should have always been prepared to pick as low as five, even though that was the worst-case scenario heading into the draft lottery. Either way, the Rangers will have a chance to snag a difference maker, while rival teams will have a much tougher task at this year’s draft.