Red Wings Contract Projections for Simon Edvinsson & Other RFAs

This offseason, the Detroit Red Wings only have one critical restricted free agent: Simon Edvinsson. Otherwise, things should be relatively straightforward for Steve Yzerman and company with regard to RFAs.

Like I’ve done the past couple years (2024, 2025), I put together contract projections using a salary range statistical model I previously developed. Let’s dive in.

More Red Wings Offseason Analysis:

• Red Wings Team Evaluation: Year-Over-Year Analysis
• Red Wings 2025-26 Player Grades
• 360-Degree Audit of the Red Wings Franchise
• Analyzing the Red Wings’ Organizational Depth

Red Wings Set to Give Edvinsson a Big Raise

Edvinsson’s new contract will be the first major deal for the Red Wings since the NHL announced its new salary cap trajectory – one that rises quite a bit over the next couple years, and will likely continue do so beyond that. 

It’s possible that Edvinsson’s new deal could end up looking relatively tame compared to that of Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, and Dylan Larkin. It could also surpass them as the NHL enters a new era of spending.

It certainly helps Edvinsson that he had a stellar year in 2025-26. He scored nine goals and finished with 25 points in 72 games, but the most impressive aspect of Edvinsson’s season was his outstanding shutdown defense alongside Seider. The two were one of the best defensive pairs in the NHL – Edvinsson, in particular, excelled when it came to defensive zone denials, plus retrieving the puck and exiting the zone.

Getting into the projections, my model suggested Brock Faber and K’Andre Miller as Edvinsson’s closest comparables, and I think this comparison benefits the Red Wings more so than their 23-year-old blueliner. Factoring in value to team and salary cap data, these comparables suggest that Edvinsson’s next AAV (on a long-term contract) would be between $8.17 million and $9.26 million.

Detroit may also want to keep Edvinsson’s salary under Seider’s $8.55 million AAV as to not upset the pecking order. That may prove difficult to accomplish given the rising salary cap, though.

On Edvinsson’s side, it’s likely that his agent J.P Barry leverages different players and their recent contracts as anchoring points in negotiations with the Red Wings. I’m talking about Seider, Thomas Harley, Luke Hughes, and Lane Hutson. After all, Edvinsson has the same high-draft pick pedigree as Seider and Hughes, plus Owen Power as well. With these players as comparables, the long-term contract AAV would be closer to an $8.85 to $10.59 million range.

There will certainly be disagreement in these negotiations, but that’s also how these things work. Edvinsson is valuable to the Red Wings organization and his agent knows that. However, it’s also true that the defenseman isn’t a 50- (or 60-, or 70-) point producer.

Given these inputs, my projection is that Edvinsson signs an eight-year deal with an $8.5 million AAV – just a hair below Seider. This is the same deal that Faber signed back in late 2024.

Other Red Wings RFAs

Now the less-contentious part. Detroit’s other RFAs played in Grand Rapids this season and there shouldn’t be too much drama around their next contracts. 

In fact, I think the contract decisions for all of these players comes down to whether the Red Wings want to tender them a qualifying offer—a one-year deal that comes with a slight raise from the prior year—or not. 

As a refresher, players can either accept the offer or hold out for a better one. And if the Red Wings decline to issue a qualifying offer to a player, they become an unrestricted free agent.

Below are Detroit’s remaining RFAs and their qualifying offer projections:

• LW Carter Mazur – Qualified at $874,125
• RW Jakub Rychlovsky – Qualified at $813,750
• C Amadeus Lombardi – Qualified at $813,750
• C Wojciech Stachowiak – Qualified at $813,750
• LD William Wallinder Wallinder – Qualified at $874,125
• G Sebastian Cossa – Qualified at $874,125
• G Carter Gylander – Qualified at 813,750
• C Alexandre Doucet – Non-tendered
• LW Michael Milne – Non-tendered

Five of the players listed above—Mazur, Doucet, Rychlovsky, Stachowiak, and Gylander—have arbitration rights. And of those five, the only one who has some leverage is Mazur, who appeared in eight games for the Red Wings and whose qualifying offer amount is lower than his 2025-26 cap hit (due to entry-level signing bonuses). That said, I don’t expect there to be much—if any—confrontation. Mazur will more than likely be in Detroit full-time next season and will be receiving an NHL salary, rather than the ~$80,000 AHL salary he was issued in 2025-26.

Final Word

If these contracts were to be signed as is, then the Red Wings would have $84,062,792 committed to 11 forwards, eight defensemen, and two goalies next season. That would leave $19,937,208 in cap space to address Detroit’s remaining needs. Of course, players could be jettisoned from the roster, too, creating even more cap space.

The main wild card here is Edvinsson. The NHL’s new salary cap era could result in a more lucrative contract for the blueliner. However, the Red Wings have flexibility to absorb a higher cap hit than projected, if needed.

Data courtesy of All Three Zones, HockeyStatCards, MoneyPuck, NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, and PuckIQ.