For the second straight season, the San Jose Sharks finished in last place in the NHL. However, this season contained far more positives than last season. They may have only improved by five points, but a deeper dive into the numbers and specifics across the two seasons provides far more optimism than they had at this time a year ago, even if they still have a lot of work to do.
Sharks Show Growth, Need to Catch Up to Rest of League
At first glance, the Sharks didn’t put up very good numbers this season. However, to fully understand the campaign they put together, we have to compare it to last season, which was one of the worst in recent NHL history.
Besides improving their record by one win and five points, their counting stats improved significantly. Their goal differential last season was minus-150; this season, it was minus-105. Last season, they were outshot by about 800; this season, they cut the differential roughly in half to just over 400. Their differentials in scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances, though still in the negative, also improved. While they still didn’t win many games, they weren’t getting completely outclassed nearly as often as last season, and 30 of their losses came by one or two goals, something they only did 21 times last season. They showed up nearly every night, competed hard, and turned in respectable results at a far higher rate than they did a year ago.
A deeper dive into the numbers shows San Jose’s improvements even further. The Sharks converted 8.7% of their high-danger chances this season, up from 7.3% last season. On the flip side, 9.3% of the high-danger chances they allowed turned into goals, an improvement from last season’s mark of 9.8%. Simply put, the Sharks were better both offensively and defensively, capitalized on opportunities more often, and did a better job recovering from mistakes than last season.
The Sharks still have a long way to go, especially relative to the rest of the league. While they finished five points behind the 31st-place team in 2023-24, the gap increased to nine points this season. Furthermore, their goal differential last season was 39 worse than the next-worst team, but this season they only shrunk the disparity to 35. They’re improving, but so are the NHL’s other bottom feeders. Their next step is to close in on those teams and eventually jump them in the standings.
Specific Sharks Players Provide Hope
One of the real difficulties of last season in San Jose was the lack of players who provided hope for the future. A few had good individual seasons, but many of them felt like future trade chips rather than major pieces for the next era of Sharks hockey. This season, numerous players made sure that narrative completely changed.
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Most obviously, Macklin Celebrini confirmed the hype around him by leading the team in points and proving his potential as an elite two-way center. After a slow start, Will Smith produced at nearly a point-per-game rate in the second half of the season and should continue to improve with more development from the Sharks organization. William Eklund improved his goals and assists in his second full NHL season and, as a slightly older forward, established himself as a leader among the youth. Among the veterans, Tyler Toffoli scored 30 goals and became a crucial presence in the locker room.
Further down the organizational depth chart, plenty of players who spent most of the season in the minors showed their ability to contribute at the highest level. Collin Graf, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Luca Cagnoni, and Yaroslav Askarov all proved themselves to be capable NHL players when given glimpses at the highest level.
San Jose’s prospects need to turn into full-time NHLers, and the front office still needs to add more players through the draft and free agency. But for the first time in years, the Sharks have a core they can truly build around.
Sharks Pivoting to a Positive Future
The Sharks improved a lot this season relative to their past selves, but only a small amount relative to the rest of the league. But the former had to come first. The roster and their performance this season finally give them the runway they need to begin the uphill portion of their rebuild. This offseason, they can focus on adding to their roster rather than subtracting from it. The players who made this season better than the one before it, combined with whoever they add this offseason, should be at the center of the franchise’s turnaround. If the young players improve as expected, the established veterans offer more of the same, and their new players elevate the team, they can grow exponentially next season and take that step of jumping more toward the middle of the standings. Next season might not blow anyone away, but just like this season, it will be a necessary step on their path back to contention.
