With the 2023-24 season only a few days away, it’s that time of year to make predictions for what will happen in the NHL in the coming months. The Hockey Writers (THW) published their season predictions a few weeks ago which featured some surprises but nothing extraordinary. The Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche are expected to repeat as division champions while the Final prediction featured two teams that are odds-on favorites to win the Cup.
Related: THW Predictions Don’t Like Red Wings in 2023-24; Why?
Ahead of the season, very few fans and experts alike are picking non-playoff teams to compete for the Cup and possibly win it all. It’s a rarity to make that leap but the last time a team failed to make the playoffs one season only to win the Cup the next was the Vegas Golden Knights, who did so last season. The team to accomplish this feat before the Golden Knights was the St. Louis Blues, who missed the playoffs in 2017-18 and went from worst to first to win their first title in franchise history in 2019.
There are a handful of teams that look poised to leap into the contending conversation. The New Jersey Devils were last season’s team to jump to the top of the Eastern Conference and a lot of young, talented teams that are in the tail ends of their rebuilds look to do the same. Likewise, a few teams are built to win the Cup and can view last season as a bump in the road, starting with the fourth team on this list.
4. Calgary Flames
Everything that could go wrong for the Calgary Flames last season did. They entered the season as Cup contenders but their goaltending struggled, injuries piled up, and they failed to find depth scoring. The result was a 38-27-17 record which was fifth in the Pacific Division and not enough for a wild card spot.
This offseason, the Flames cleared house. They fired general manager (GM) Brad Treliving and head coach Darryl Sutter, replacing them with first-time GM Craig Conroy and coach Ryan Huska. On top of that, the Flames moved on from Tyler Toffoli, trading him to the Devils, who scored 34 goals and 39 assists last season, a trade that signaled that the team won’t be competing this season.
There’s a lot of reason to believe the Flames won’t contend this season. However, if last season was an outlier, they have a lot going in their favor. Their top six is still one of the strongest in the division with Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Elias Lindholm leading the way. Similarly, while the later pairings are in question, they have the talent on defense with MacKenzie Weegar, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson leading the unit.
The biggest question marks are the goaltending, the depth, and whether Huska can lead the team in his first season behind the bench. Jacob Markstrom can make or break the Flames’ season based on how he plays as he can range from a Vezina Trophy finalist, something he was in 2021-22, or a liability in the net. The depth interestingly was strengthened by the offseason moves as they added young forwards in the Toffoli trade, most notably Yegor Sharangovich, a 25-year-old forward with 55 goals and 53 assists under his belt. Lastly, Huska is an unknown but he’s been with the team for multiple seasons and understands the roster arguably better than anyone in the league.
There are a lot of “ifs” when it comes to the Flames. That said, it’s not hard to see them having a season that mirrors their 2021-22 campaign where they went 50-21-11 and finished first in the division.
3. Ottawa Senators
There are a few young teams in the Atlantic Division looking to dethrone the big three teams (Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs) that have all but owned the division in recent seasons. The Ottawa Senators are one of the teams most suited to do so with a core that is entering its prime.
The top six features Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson, three skaters under the age of 25 who combined for 96 goals and 139 assists last season. A bonus is that Josh Norris, one of the top-six centers, is expected to return to the lineup after having his 2022-23 season cut short due to injury. The Senators not only have elite young talent but added a veteran presence in recent offseasons with the additions of Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko. After averaging 3.11 goals per game last season, they can have one of the league’s top offenses this season if the forward unit continues to improve, which it’s expected to do.
The question for the Senators is on the defensive side of the ice. To address this issue, they acquired Jakob Chychrun at the 2023 Trade Deadline. He’s a two-way defenseman who not only opens up the offense at the point but is a bigger-bodied skater who can turn defense into instant offense the other way. Chychrun joins a unit that already has Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson playing big roles in it and allows the Senators to have a defense that can play at a high level in all three zones. This puts all eyes on the goaltending which was an issue last season as well and could derail any hopes of a Cup title. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to carry the team in the net along with backups Anton Forsberg and Mads Sogaard. It’s a trio that is questionable and as a result, will leave the team with options to find a reliable starter if they look to compete.
The Senators traded Alex DeBrincat this offseason, losing one of the best young skaters in the league in the process. However, they still have a surplus of elite players who are ready to take the next step and catapult them to the top of the Eastern Conference and compete for the Cup.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins
Last season, the Pittsburgh Penguins went 40-31-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-06 season. The injuries took a toll on the roster and their age started to show as they came up just short of a wild card spot. This offseason, they doubled down on their core but the moves they made set them up for a big season where they can make a Cup run.
They made arguably the biggest trade of the summer, acquiring reigning Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks in a blockbuster trade. He not only strengthens the defensive unit but is one of the best playmaking defensemen in the league, providing the Penguins with a skater who can take a good offense to the next level. With veteran defenseman Kris Letang already in the lineup, the Karlsson addition gives the Penguins an elite defense that can both limit opponents and create offense.
Karlsson, along with the additions of Reilly Smith, Ryan Graves, Lars Eller, and goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic are the ideal complementary pieces for one of the best core groups in the NHL. The Penguins are led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel in the top six and the three skaters typically carry the offense. Crosby and Guentzel in particular use their speed to gash opponents in space and their all-around ability makes them two of the toughest skaters in the league to stop. The Penguins already had the star players in place to make a Cup run but they just needed to build around them. Their offseason moves did just that.
The knock on the Penguins will remain their age. Twelve of their skaters are 30 years old or older and their farm system is one of the worst in the NHL, preventing them from adding young talent to the NHL roster. Eventually, they’ll have to face the inevitable and tear down the roster to rebuild but until then, they have made it clear that they are going all in to win the Cup. This season, it seems like it’s the last chance to do it with the same skaters who have a lasting legacy with the team, specifically, Crosby, Malkin, and Letang.
Aside from age, the Penguins also have a questionable goaltending unit. Tristan Jarry has established himself as the team’s starter but the new GM Kyle Dubas is betting on Nedeljkovic to rebound from a disastrous tenure with the Detroit Red Wings. In two seasons with the Red Wings, he had a .900 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.35 goals-against average (GAA) on 2,262 shots with a minus-13.5 goals saved above average (GSAA). The hope is that he can improve but at the moment, he’s a liability as a backup for a team that will rely on him to start a significant number of games this season. To avoid a goaltending weakness, the Penguins added Magnus Hellberg as well this offseason and a trio might be just what the team needs to have a successful season.
The last time the Penguins had a deep playoff run was in 2017 when they won the Stanley Cup. The last time they won a playoff series was 2018. It’s easy to look at their aging roster and see the successful seasons as a thing of the past. However, this team was already built to contend and with the addition of Karlsson, they are ready to make a run at the Cup.
1. Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since 2011. Not only can they snap the longest playoff drought in the NHL but they can emerge as one of the Cup contenders this season.
The first thing to note with the Sabres is how close they were to reaching the playoffs last season. They went 42-33-7, falling one point shy of a wild card spot. They came up short with a roster that had glaring weakness but more importantly with a young team that is expected to be significantly improved this season.
The forward unit is one of the best in the NHL and led an offense that averaged 3.57 goals per game last season. Tage Thompson has made his mark as one of the best scorers in the game and looks to only improve on a 47-goal season. From the snap on his shot to his movement and ability to use his size to his advantage, he’s starting to enter the conversation as one of the few skaters who can take over a game and put a team on his back if needed. Along with Thompson, the Sabres have Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, two skaters under the age of 22, who are gradually becoming stars at the NHL level. The defensive unit also has a handful of playmakers on the offensive end with Rasmus Dahlin playing at an elite level while Owen Power is heading into his second full season in the NHL and is already a great two-way player.
Youth is the driving force in the Sabres roster with only four skaters over the age of 30. That said, there are plenty of veterans that balance them out as well. Kyle Okposo and Jeff Skinner are the two elder statesmen while Alex Tuch, who grew up in the area, has emerged as one of the leaders and best skaters since he joined the team in the Jack Eichel trade during the 2021-22 season. Eichel helped lead the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup but the Sabres also benefitted from the deal. The additions of Tuch, Peyton Krebs, and a draft selection that became a top prospect in Noah Ostlund can all be significant contributors for a team contending in the Eastern Conference.
The question mark is on the defensive end of the ice as the Sabres allowing 3.62 goals per game last season was the primary reason they missed the playoffs. The issues were in the net as they struggled to find a reliable goaltender and the weakness can plague them once again. That said, it looks like the Sabres finally found their starter with Devon Levi expected to be with the team from the first game of the season. He is only 21 years old and still has plenty of room to improve but last season, he had a .905 SV% and a 2.94 GAA, albeit on only 222 shots. If he is the primary goaltender throughout the season, this team can not only be a good one but one of the best in the Eastern Conference.
The Sabres have been through some brutal seasons during their playoff drought and the fans are due for some success. Fortunately, GM Kevyn Adams has put the pieces in place for the team to take that next step. They will have their hands full in a competitive Atlantic Division but with the young skaters starting to enter the prime of their careers, they can become the team to beat for years to come.
Honorable Mentions
The team that was mentioned surprisingly enough, was the Arizona Coyotes. They seem like one of the furthest teams from contention but in the latter parts of their rebuild, they have some intriguing pieces that could make them a team to watch. They have a young and exciting core and this season is the one where Logan Cooley, the third overall selection in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, is expected to make his mark at the NHL level. Additionally, some of the skaters they brought in this offseason will raise their floor, especially veteran defenseman Mathew Dumba and forward Jason Zucker. While they might not contend for the Cup, they will be a team that shocks the NHL landscape.
The Red Wings were notably left absent from teams that are at the tail ends of rebuilds that could take the next step. They have a good forward unit and a reliable defense but like a lot of teams looking to improve, they have questions in the net. On top of that, they lack the elite presence that the above teams have. While they added DeBrincat to the forward unit this offseason, they are a roster built on depth and not star power. Unfortunately, depth can only take them so far, making a playoff berth a possibility but a playoff run unlikely.
The Vancouver Canucks are a sleeping giant in the Pacific Division. They went 20-12-4 under head coach Rick Tocchet with an offensive-minded but balanced roster. They have a top-heavy lineup that can make them one of the best teams in the Western Conference but there are question marks on the defense and in the net that prevent them from joining the elite teams in the conference.
With the season around the corner, it’s easy to write off the teams that missed the playoffs last season. They seem like non-factors and teams that won’t make a significant impact on the standings. Some are ready to bounce back after rough seasons while a few are ready to join the league’s best, making a run at the Cup.
Is there a team that missed the playoffs last season that you think can win it all this season? Let us know in the comment section below.
