Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck Deserves to Be a Hart Trophy Finalist

Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is having an outstanding season and is deservedly right in the thick of the Hart Memorial Trophy race. Could he be the first netminder to be named the NHL’s most valuable player in a decade?

Hellebuyck Has Reached Yet Another Level of Dominance

The Jets are used to Hellebuyck being one of the league’s best in the crease — he has two Vezina Trophies on his resume already — and they’ve had a front-row seat to his heroics since his NHL debut in 2015. This season, though, fresh off his second-Vezina win and in the first year of a seven-year extension he signed last October, he has found yet another level of dominance.

The 31-year-old has a 27-6-2 record, 1.99 goals against average (GAA), .929 save percentage (SV%), six shutouts, and a 27.2 goals saved above expected (GSAA) in 35 starts this season. His win, GAA, SV%, shutouts, and GSAA are all best in the league among qualified goaltenders.

Hellebuyck has also reached three significant career milestones this season at a relatively-young age that show his impressive larger body of work. He made his 500th-career start in October, captured the 40th shutout of his career in November, and won his 300th-career game on Jan. 7. He is just the 41st goaltender in NHL history and the seventh U.S.-born one to reach the 300-win mark, and he did it in 538 games, the third-fastest of all time. He will also be the United States’ starting goaltender at the 4 Nations Face-Off next month.

Winnipeg and its players are sometimes overlooked by the league in general, but media (other than THW, which has brought extensive Jets coverage for years) and oddsmakers alike are starting to take note of the special season Hellebuyck is having in the frozen prairie burgh.

The FanDuel Sportsbook odds not only have him as the heavy favourite to repeat as the Vezina winner, but also has him tied for first in the Hart race (at +360) with the Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl as of Jan. 14. TSN recently did a segment on the increasing Hart buzz around him.

Just How Valuable Is Hellebuyck to the Jets Success? Where Would They Be Without Him?

Draisaitl and other Hart frontrunners Kirill Kaprizov, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid are all incredible talents who stir their teams’ offensive drinks, but the modern NHL is an offensive paradise whose equipment and rule changes over the past number of years have all been made to increase goal scoring. That a goaltender is dominating to Hellebuyck’s degree is something that’s becoming even rarer and more impressive as time goes on.

It’s one thing to say Hellebuyck stole this game or that game, but another to try and quantify exactly how valuable he is to the team (especially considering “most valuable” is a subjective measure and the Hart is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association.)

It’s a tricky exercise to determine exactly where the Jets would be without Hellebuyck between the pipes or to compare his contributions to high-powered forwards. It’s an even trickier one to compare a Jets team without Hellebuyck directly to another team considering every team’s player personnel and tactics are different and some divisions are weaker than others. The Jets, even without Hellebuyck, are a better and deeper team than many others.

Connor Hellebuyck Winnipeg Jets
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets (Photo by Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images)

There are a few numbers to look at to get an idea. Hellebuyck’s wins above replacement (WAR) is a league-leading 4.59, meaning he has won the team four-and-a-half more games that a statistically-average goaltender would have. Four-and-a-half wins equals nine points.

If we round up his GSAA to 27 and consider what the Jets’ goal differential would be with a bog-standard goalie who sports an exact zero GSAA, their goal differential would be plus-26 instead of plus-53. Teams with goal differentials in the plus-20s such as the Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils, and Los Angeles Kings are all in playoff spots but all trail the Jets in points and none are first in their division.

Related: Top 3 Jets from First Half of 2024-25 Season

With a goalie with a zero WAR, the Jets would not be in first place in the Central Division and would have 54 points instead of 63. 54 points would have the Jets fourth in the Central and in the second Western Conference wild-card spot.

Hellebuyck’s Numbers Compare Well to Last Goaltender Hart Winner

The Hart now generally goes to either the player with the most goals or most points and no goaltender has won it since the Montreal Canadiens’ Carey Price in 2014-15. Price had a 44-16-6 record, 1.96 GAA, .933 SV%, nine shutouts, and 36.7 GSAA in that outstanding campaign, where the Canadiens finished first in the Atlantic Division with 50 wins and 110 points.

Carey Price Montreal Canadiens
Carey Price is the last goalie to have won the Hart. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Hellebuyck’s numbers aren’t far off Price’s and are arguably equal considering the average number goals each team scored per game a decade ago was lower (2.66 then compared to 3.00 this season entering play Jan. 15) while the average SV% was higher (.915 then compared to .901 this season entering play Jan. 15) because of the offense-friendly rule changes and players simply being better than ever before.

Hellebuyck (Still) Not Focused on Personal Accolades, But Says Winning Hart Would Be “Cool”

Sportsnet’s Sean Reynolds asked Hellebuyck after he shut out the Colorado Avalanche on Jan. 11 if the Hart chatter meant anything to him.

“It would be cool,” he said. “Just to being in the conversation is pretty cool and I’ll definitely cherish that when it’s all said and done. Right now, I just want to win some teams, and get this team where it needs to go, and try to push for a Cup.”

Hellebuyck’s understated response is not too surprising. He has made it clear for years now he doesn’t care too much about personal accolades and is firmly focused on hoisting Lord Stanley’s Mug. It’s why, when the Jets looked destined for a rebuild after losing in the first round in 2023, many considered him as good as gone when he became an unrestricted free agent in 2024. History shows that Kevin Cheveldayoff and Rick Bowness were able to convince him Winnipeg is a place to win and to ink the new long-term deal.

Time will tell if Hellebuyck will ultimately win the Hart or even be a finalist. Regardless, Hellebuyck is having a special season and will continue to be the Jets’ most valuable player.