2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 5.1 - The Hockey Writers - NHL Entry Draft

This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

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Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 5.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 5.1:

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Buffalo Sabres — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Montreal Canadiens — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

4) Ottawa Senators — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

7) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

8) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota sees Zary as the next-best centre, prioritizing that position and hoping he can become a productive second-liner. Zary is an older prospect for this draft class and could be NHL ready following next season, which is also appealing for the Wild, who will need replacements for Mikko Koivu and Eric Staal in the near future. Zary won’t likely be a top-line talent but should be able to play ahead of Joel Eriksson Ek and is a safer bet than Alexander Khovanov to make an impact. Zary could also form a connection with fellow WHLer Adam Beckman in the years to come.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg has drafted a few small forwards from Portland over the years — Nic Petan, Chase De Leo and Skyler McKenzie, who is still in the Jets’ system — so there is something of an established pipeline. Jarvis projects to be the best of that bunch, with his speed being the biggest difference. That sets him apart and should be his ticket to success as a pro. Jarvis is closer to Jack Roslovic as a comparison but has a higher ceiling than him too. Winnipeg hasn’t drafted a player from the WHL for the past two years — McKenzie was their last pick from that league as a seventh-round selection in 2017 — but that is out of character for Kevin Cheveldayoff and his staff, headed up by Marcel Comeau and now Jeff Finley, so expect a return to the Dub in 2020 and perhaps as high as the first round.

13) New York Rangers — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Holloway, wanting more strength down the middle behind Mika Zibanejad. Filip Chytil is progressing as a flashier type, but Holloway is a better version of Brett Howden as a heavy centre with more offensive upside. With the uncertainty surrounding Lias Andersson, centre remains a position of concern for the Rangers. Holloway would help shore that up and Chris Drury would surely be a fan of Holloway’s hard-driving game.

14) Florida Panthers — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: Florida has plenty of defence options here — including Jake Sanderson, who the Panthers took in mock 2.1, Kaiden Guhle from mock 3.1 and Braden Schneider from mock 4.1 — but Quinn is another scoring forward out of the OHL who netted 52 goals during his draft year. Quinn isn’t a pure sniper like Owen Tippett but is more diverse in his attack with a stronger all-around game. The Panthers’ top three lines could feature right-wingers from the OHL in the future with Tippett, Quinn and Serron Noel. That would be a nice trio to build around, especially if part of Florida’s savings plan is moving on from Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov as pending free agents. Quinn is an older prospect for this draft class and could make the jump relatively quickly.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Columbus may be thinking offence here, but the Blue Jackets couldn’t pass up Sanderson, who is sounding more and more like a top-10 pick. Sanderson could slot in behind Zach Werenski and ensure defence remains a strength for Columbus. That top pair of Werenski and Seth Jones carries the Blue Jackets, but the prospect pool is pretty bare on the back end, so Sanderson would absolutely be a welcome addition and an easy decision in this scenario.

16) Calgary Flames — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes Barron as a high-upside defender and potential future partner for Juuso Valimaki, who was taken at this same spot (16th) in 2017. Barron’s ceiling is higher than Rasmus Andersson, so he could ascend to the top of Calgary’s depth chart on the right side. The Flames are lacking in right-handed defence prospects, so Barron addresses an organizational need and could become a steal if he lives up to the hype he had prior to a disastrous draft year. Barron lost a lot of development time — sidelined long term by a blood clot that caused him to miss the World Juniors — but he was healthy to end the season and should be able to rebound going forward. This is a good fit as far as opportunity goes.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Gunler again as a repeat pick from mock 4.1. All the analysis is there, but it bears repeating that the Canucks won’t pass on this talented Swede as a potential linemate for Elias Pettersson and Nils Hoglander. Those three could work some Sedinery-level magic together for Vancouver in the years to come.

18) Nashville Predators — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville has drafted some of the franchise’s best defencemen from the WHL — Dan Hamhuis (12th) in 2001, Shea Weber (49th) in 2003, Cody Franson (79th) in 2005 and Seth Jones (fourth) in 2013 — so Guhle could be joining that illustrious list. His game resembles a prime Hamhuis, not overly offensive but a solid and smooth two-way defender who is effective in all situations and capable of logging big minutes. Guhle isn’t a super sexy pick, but the Predators could envision him as a future partner for Dante Fabbro, who was taken 17th in 2016. They could form quite the shutdown tandem as a second pairing for upwards of a decade. Nashville has some smaller, more offensive blueliners on the way, but Guhle would instantly become the Preds’ top defence prospect. Worth noting, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm are all 29 years old now, so Nashville needs to draft and develop their successors as those go-to guys enter their thirties.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Peterka after previously acquiring another German first-rounder in Dominik Bokk, who St. Louis drafted in 2018 but parted with for Justin Faulk. Bokk and Peterka were both standouts for Germany at the World Juniors, sharing an attacking mentality though Peterka is more of a scorer and Bokk a playmaker. Peterka doesn’t have the dangles of Bokk but does have breakaway speed and better finishing ability. They would be fun to watch as linemates in Carolina, potentially flanking 2019 first-rounder Ryan Suzuki in the future. Peterka will probably top out as a middle-six winger, playing behind Andrei Svechnikov with the Hurricanes.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton takes Mysak as a scoring winger who made an immediate impact in North America after crossing the pond following the World Juniors where he also made a positive impression for the host Czechs. Mysak has great offensive instincts and a wicked shot, which is an ideal skill-set for the Oilers to target at this spot. He can be a driver on offence but would become more of a finisher for Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid, fitting into Edmonton’s top nine in due time. The Oilers wouldn’t want to rush Mysak — and Ken Holland wouldn’t let that happen — but they would be in good shape with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyler Benson and Mysak down the left side for the years to come. Edmonton remains a work in progress on the wings, but the future is looking brighter with Kailer Yamamoto, Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov on the right side — plus Jesse Puljujarvi if Holland can lure him back into the fold. Mysak is more of a shooter than the playmaking Ales Hemsky — the last Czech winger the Oilers selected in the first round, 13th overall in 2001 as an import from the QMJHL’s Hull (now Gatineau) Olympiques.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes a swing on Chromiak, sensing a high ceiling on one of the youngest prospects in this draft class who will be playing on one of the OHL’s most potent lines next season with Shane Wright and Zayde Wisdom in Kingston. This would be a bit of a reach — and probably the highest Chromiak could possibly go — but the upside is huge. Chromiak has the potential to develop into the next David Pastrnak or a prime Marian Gaborik, though he doesn’t have the breakneck speed that Gaborik possessed in his younger years. If Chromiak can add that extra gear of acceleration and gain more explosiveness, he could wind up looking like a steal here in hindsight — much like Pastrnak, as the 25th overall pick from 2014. The Senators come away with three wingers in Raymond, Holtz and Chromiak, which wouldn’t be their best showing on paper amongst these scenarios but could still turn out quite well in reshaping that franchise for a bright future.

22) Dallas Stars — Jacob Perreault (RW/RC, Canada/USA, Sarnia OHL)

ANALYSIS: Dallas has been drafting quite heavily from the OHL in recent years — including their past two first-rounders, Thomas Harley and Ty Dellandrea — so Perreault could certainly be on the Stars’ radar. His skating has been knocked — reminiscent of Jason Robertson — despite winning the fastest-skating events during the testing portion of the CHL Top Prospects Game. It is a pace issue for Perreault, but his ability to slow the game down could work well on an all-OHL line with Robertson and Dellandrea. They would be attacking with precision rather than pure speed to generate offence for the Stars.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers make a repeat pick, selecting Amirov for the third time — previously taking him 13th in mock 2.1 and here at 23rd in mock 3.1. Like Gunler with the Canucks, it is hard to imagine Amirov getting past the Rangers — especially with their second pick of the first round. This just feels like a logical fit, particularly at this spot.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh takes a new name in Brisson, the son of super agent Pat Brisson, who represents Sidney Crosby and has strong ties to the Penguins’ organization. Brendan Brisson will want to make his own name in the hockey world and he has legitimate first-round talent, but those connections are helping connect the dots to Pittsburgh as a team of interest. As for the player that the Penguins would be getting, Brisson projects as a winger with a wicked one-timer who does his best work on the power play. He has top-six upside and should score his share of goals as a pro — especially if he ends up flanking Crosby in the future.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia has their choice of three QMJHL forwards and surprisingly takes Bourque over Dawson Mercer and Hendrix Lapierre, who they took in mock 3.1. Those two have had more hype at different times during the draft year, but Bourque has been a steady riser and might be the best fit for the Flyers. Bourque has similarities to Morgan Frost in terms of offensive tools and should develop into a productive middle-six forward.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Thomas Bordeleau (LC, USA/Canada, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Colorado doesn’t have many needs from a prospect perspective, so the Avs can continue to stockpile skilled forwards like Bordeleau. He led The Program in scoring this season and would be a surefire first-rounder if he was a few inches taller. Bordeleau is essentially a shorter Shane Bowers but with more offensive upside — a higher ceiling per se. Bordeleau isn’t on Alex Newhook’s level but somewhere between those two. And he has NHL bloodlines, with his dad Sebastian Bordeleau playing more than 250 games and falling just short of 100 career points.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Jaromir Pytlik (RC, Czech Republic, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose is going to have some holes at centre — with Joe Thornton nearing retirement and Barclay Goodrow traded away — so the Sharks are taking Pytlik to address that organizational need. He could fill one of those spots in the not-too-distant future as an older prospect for this draft class and a mature two-way pivot. Pytlik has good size and decent skill but is nowhere near as dynamic as Tomas Hertl, with Radek Faksa being the better comparable among Czech first-rounders. But Pytlik should develop into a solid middle-six centre, strong on the forecheck and effective around the net, with many of his goals coming from rebounds and redirections. He wouldn’t be relied on for offence in San Jose — playing behind Hertl and Logan Couture on the depth chart — but Pytlik could chip in as a net-front presence on the power play while contributing through a responsible 200-foot game.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Vegas would be shocked to see Schneider still on the board and Kelly McCrimmon’s connection to Brandon makes this an obvious selection. Even if he didn’t own the Wheat Kings, this would be an easy decision since the Golden Knights are lacking in right-handed defencemen. Some might suggest Schneider is too similar to 2019 second-rounder Kaedan Korczak — both being shutdown types — but Vegas would be much stronger on that side with those two in the system. There isn’t much offensive upside with Schneider — there is potential for more with Korczak — but Schneider should be a defensive stalwart for a decade, along the lines of Brandon alum Travis Hamonic. Vegas previously reached for gritty forward Ridly Greig from Brandon in mock 3.1, but Schneider is a consensus first-rounder and could be something of a steal this late.

29) Washington Capitals — Marat Khusnutdinov (LC, Russia, SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington has enjoyed a lot of success with Russians drafted in the first round since the turn of the century — Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov as current Capitals, Alex Semin and Semyon Varlamov as former Capitals, plus Ilya Samsonov and Alexander Alexeyev as top prospects, not to mention Dmitry Orlov as a second-rounder. Khusnutdinov could join that impressive list, rising towards the first round as a two-way centre who flashed more offensive upside as the draft year progressed. His ceiling isn’t as high as Kuznetsov — the 26th overall pick from 2010 — but Khusnutdinov’s creativity shone through as he became more confident, which wouldn’t have gone unnoticed by the Capitals.

30) St. Louis Blues — Ryan O’Rourke (LD, Canada, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis is tapped into the OHL as one of their scouting strongholds, so O’Rourke won’t be flying under the radar for the Blues. He is a budding blueliner with a lot of similarities to Vince Dunn, who was a second-rounder in that very deep 2015 draft. O’Rourke would have had a key role for Canada at the under-18 worlds, which could have turned him into a consensus first-rounder. Without that showcase, many are still sleeping on O’Rourke — along with Lukas Cormier, another option here if St. Louis goes defence. At forward, there is also Tyson Foerster from the OHL, who is gaining more traction as a first-rounder, but O’Rourke is the right choice for the Blues.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim is astonished to be choosing between Lapierre and Mercer, with one of them slipping to the second round in this scenario. Faced with an unexpected decision, the Ducks roll the dice on Lapierre, who has the higher ceiling but also more risk with his history of concussions. The potential reward is worth the risk with Lapierre, who was considered a top-10 talent coming out of the Hlinka Gretzky Cup last summer where he starred alongside Cole Perfetti — the Ducks’ previous selection at seventh overall. As a result, Mercer will have to wait until the second day of the draft to hear his name called — presumably early in the second round, as a similar situation to Raphael Lavoie last year.

Recapping Results for Mock 5.1