Welcome to THW’s 2022-23 Hart Trophy tracker. Using a mix of traditional analysis and newer analytical tools, this list will serve as a ranking of the NHL’s top Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidates over the course of the regular season. Just to get out ahead of the crowd, here’s an explanation for why points aren’t everything, in case some players aren’t ranked as high as you may believe is warranted.
Before the final top 5 is unveiled, a few qualifying criteria should be established. First, skaters must have appeared in at least 65 games to qualify for these rankings. For a goaltender to qualify, they must make a majority of their team’s starts. A player’s per-game production or performance will be considered, but staying healthy is crucial in determining which individual provided more overall value to their team over the course of the season.
Lastly, those who provide greater relative value (due to a weak supporting cast, for example) will be ranked higher except in rare cases where a player is clearly above the pack. With those stipulations in place, let’s dive into the final edition of the Hart Trophy rankings.
March Rankings: 1. Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers); 2. David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins); 3. Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders); 4. Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils) 5. Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)
5. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
2022-23 Stats: 71 Games Played (GP) – 42 Goals (G) – 69 Assists (A) – 111 Points (PTS) – 22:19 Average Time on Ice (ATOI)
Of the skaters within the top five, Nathan MacKinnon played the fewest games at (71) but that discrepancy didn’t kept the Colorado Avalanche superstar from climbing the NHL’s scoring leaderboards and eclipsing the 100-point mark for the first time in his career.
Related: 2022-23 Norris Trophy Tracker
MacKinnon’s year-end totals place him ninth in goals, eighth in assists, and fifth points, while having also fired a league-high 5.2 shots per game.
Only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl scored at a higher points-per-game (P/G) clip, but MacKinnon’s 77 even-strength points lead all skaters, despite playing in at least seven fewer games this season than every skater in the top 20 by that measure.
The Avalanche have famously dealt with a number of significant injuries to several of their stars including captain Gabriel Landeskog (now out for the season), Cale Makar, and MacKinnon himself.
Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen deserves a shout as well given that he shouldered much of the offensive workload on his own to start the year, setting a new franchise record for goals in a season (55).
Still, it’s hard to ignore what MacKinnon accomplished on a per-game basis and without being flanked by his most reliable linemates for much of the year.
If everyone stays healthy next season, MacKinnon could mount a more inspired assault on the Hart Trophy but for now, he’ll have to settle for the outskirts of the MVP race.
4. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers
2022-23 Stats: 79 GP – 40 G – 69 A – 109 PTS – 20:26 ATOI
After last summer’s seismic trade between the Calgary Flames and the Florida Panthers, many wondered if Matthew Tkachuk could replicate his 42-goal, 104-point season without his chief playmaker, Johnny Gaudreau, by his side.
Instead, Tkachuk blew away all expectations, even as the Panthers’ top center in Aleksandr Barkov missed 14 games this season.
Related: 2022-23 Calder Trophy Tracker
Tkachuk tallied 40 goals and set new career-highs in assists and points, ranking sixth in the league in both of the latter two departments. Showing his importance to the Panthers’ offensive strategy is the fact that he finished 31 points ahead of Barkov in team scoring, one of the biggest differences in the league this season.
The winger was also one of five players to exceed 70 even-strength points on the season (fifth with 72), while also finishing fourth in points per game (1.38).
Beyond his impressive counting stats, Tkachuk’s impact at 5-on-5 truly elevates his Hart Trophy case. When the American star takes the ice, the Panthers accounted for 60.7% of all shots, 61.5% of expected goals, 61.8% of scoring chances, and 61% of high-danger chances.
Those percentages are among the league’s best on their own, but they’re even better when analyzed through a relative lens.
In each of the aforementioned categories, Tkachuk’s relative metrics (how much better the team performs when he’s on the ice compared to not) rank fifth or higher among qualified NHL forwards (minimum 300 minutes played at 5-on-5). Considering that Patrice Bergeron is one of the only players to rank higher relative to his teammates, I’d say that’s fairly good company.
The Panthers may have significantly underwhelmed compared to their Presidents’ Trophy-winning campaign of last season, but that’s not because of Tkachuk, who showed without a doubt that he was more than a fortunate beneficiary with the Flames.
3. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
2022-23 Stats: 82 GP – 61 G – 52 A – 113 PTS – 19:34 ATOI
Despite being without the services of Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy to start the year, the Boston Bruins ripped through the league and rode that momentum to set new NHL records for wins (65) and points (135) in a season.
Beyond their unbeatable goaltending tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman and the play of established leaders in Marchand, McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron, and David Krejci, winger David Pastrnak was arguably the primary driver of the Bruins’ success.
Related: 2022-23 Selke Trophy Tracker
The 26-year-old became the fifth player in the salary cap era to score 60 or more goals in a single season, trailing only McDavid for the league lead this season. Pastrnak also finished in a tie for third in scoring with 113 points while leading all skaters in even-strength goals (43) and sitting second with 76 even-strength points.
Pastrnak’s 407 shots on goal this season are the most since 2005-06 by someone not named Alexander Ovechkin, and he finished within the top 25 of all skaters in terms of assists. The winger’s 2022-23 campaign all but confirmed that he is one of the pre-eminent dual threats in the league today, and he should rightfully garner a handful of Hart Trophy votes for his efforts.
Pasrtnak also grades out well when looking at his per-60-minute rate stats, as opposed to strictly assessing him by volume. Even when adjusting for minutes played, he ranks second in goals per-60 and fifth in points per-60 at 5-on-5, showing his production is more than just a reflection of high usage and powerplay deployment.
If it weren’t for McDavid, Pastrnak would be getting much more praise for his outstanding offensive campaign. He’ll just have to settle for unparalleled regular-season team success and individual satisfaction after becoming a member of the 60-goal club. There are worse fates in the NHL, to be fair.
2. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
2022-23 Stats: 48 GP – 22 Wins (W) – 18 Loss (L) – 6 Overtime Loss (OTL) – .925 Save Percentage (SV%) – 42.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)
Given his workload and the team in front of him, there’s an argument that no one has been as valuable to their team’s success as New York Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin.
Among goalies to have played in at least 41 games this season, Sorokin ranks second in SV% and third in GAA behind only Ullmark and Ilya Samsonov (for GAA), but it’s his playing environment which makes his season that much more impressive.
Using Evolving Hockey’s GSAx metric which better accounts for the quality of a goalie’s workload, Sorokin eclipses Ullmark by more than 10 goals above expected, and has saved about five goals more than Juuse Saros in second.
In fact, Sorokin’s current GSAx total ranks as the second-best season ever since the stat started being calculated in 2007-08, behind only Henrik Lundqvist’s 2009-10 season (51.7).
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Islanders rank 21st or lower in all situations in terms of the rate at which they concede expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities. When only 5-on-5 play is taken into account, those numbers drop even more.
The current goalie metrics that are publicly available aren’t perfect and lack important context that could help more accurately estimate workloads.
With what we do have access to however, Sorokin has lapped almost every netminder in recent memory, and that should carry more weight than raw SV% or GAA, especially when accounting for the quality of chances he faced on a nightly basis.
Without Sorokin, the Islanders would not be anywhere near the playoffs. Instead, they hold the top wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference and have a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Carolina Hurricanes in Round One. That storyline might not carry as much weight as setting new NHL records, but Sorokin has been spectacular given the wider context.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
2022-23 Stats: 82 GP – 64 G – 89 A – 153 PTS – 22:23 ATOI
For almost the entirety of the 2022-23 NHL season, the Hart Trophy favourite has been the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid and judging by the campaign he just authored, it’s difficult to see anyone but him taking home the award this season.
Not only did McDavid become the first player since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 to eclipse 150 points in a single season, but he did so while falling one goal shy of Ovechkin’s cap-era record of 65 in 2007-08.
McDavid’s full-season tally of 153 points is the highest by any player not named Lemiuex or Gretzky since 1991, and only serves to highlight how dominant he has been in all facets of the game this season.
Not only did he finish 25 points ahead of his teammate in Leon Draisaitl, but he outscored third-place Pastrnak by 40 points. For reference, he only finished eight (2021-22) and 21 (2020-21) points clear of the second-highest scoring skater over the two previous seasons, so this year’s outburst is on another level.
Beyond goals, assists, and points, McDavid also leads the league in powerplay points (71), and sits third in shorthanded (seven) and even-strength points (75), while leading all forwards in average ice time this season.
McDavid also posted very strong shot- and scoring chance-shares at 5-on-5 this season despite facing the best his opponents had to offer, controlling possession and the run of play at one of the highest rates of his career.
Unsurprisingly, McDavid has also drawn the most minor penalties in the league this season (45) and owns the second-best penalty differential at plus-27, behind only Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks. He’s rightfully faced criticism for his defensive shortcomings in the past, but even those appear to have been eliminated.
McDavid is the complete player and submitted one of the best offensive performances of the past several decades. When you imagine a player being named a unanimous Hart Trophy winner, it’s this iteration of the Oilers’ superstar pivot.
2022-23 Hart Trophy Honourable Mentions
Here are five additional honourable mentions — in no particular order — to round out the last edition of the Hart Trophy rankings: Erik Karlsson (San Jose Sharks); Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils); Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers); Mikko Rantanen (Colorado Avalanche); and Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars).
The 2022-23 Hart race was unique in that, despite a clear front-runner, the rest of the field was loaded with worthy candidates. As a result, several names have been left out so let me know in the comments who deserves more praise for their performance this season.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, MoneyPuck, and Natural Stat Trick.
