In a world full of “hot takes” that really are more mild, here is one that could get sizzling: the Vegas Golden Knights may miss out on the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Say what? The Golden Knights are currently on pace for 104 points (before games played on Dec. 11, 2025). This is likely enough to get them into the top three in the Pacific Division and a playoff spot if they maintain the pace. But the NHL is not this cut and dry.
Related: Vegas Golden Knights News & Rumors: Hart, Dorofeyev & More
We look at four factors and underlying numbers on why the Knights should have cause for concern. Will they be the reason they miss the playoffs? At worst, yes. But at best, these are issues that could still stunt this would-be contender’s potential.
The Injury Bug That Never Leaves
Guess what? The Golden Knights are atop the NHL when it comes to man-games lost to injuries yet again. Per the NHL Injury Viz, the Golden Knights are sitting near the top of the league in total impact lost. This is not just the number of games missed, but the quality of the players missing them. It’s a familiar storyline at this point.
Center William Karlsson, defenseman Jeremy Lauzon, and goaltender Adin Hill are three notables on the injury list. Captain Mark Stone has only played in half the games. Defenseman Noah Hanifin also had to miss time with a lower-body injury, and center Brett Howden has been banged up.
If all of this sounds familiar, it’s because the last time the Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the only time in franchise history, it happened for the same reason. That 2021-22 season completely fell apart under the weight of nonstop injuries. Stone was in and out of the lineup, and the goaltending carousel never stabilized.
This season already has shades of that. The difference is that the Knights are tougher, deeper, and have banked enough early wins to stay afloat. Still, the injury bug is one that the franchise can’t seem to shake.
Growing Woes Seen in One-Score Games
The Golden Knights have a real problem closing out tight games, and it’s killing them in the standings. Their point percentage in one-goal games is 41.2%, which ranks 26th in the league. That’s a red flag, especially since this was a similar woe last season. Whether it’s late breakdowns, missed chances, or shaky execution, they’re letting some wins slip.
Their actual goal differential (minus expected differential) tells the same story. At minus-11, they’re tied for the fourth-worst differential. This could be due to bad luck or an underlying issue that the team is struggling to convert scoring chances while also failing to prevent opponents. It’s not just a goaltender issue.
Further numbers back it up: a 0.986 PDO at 5-on-5 means both the team’s shooting percentage and save percentage are below league average.
If these numbers don’t stabilize soon, the Knights could continue to leave points on the board. And with how close the playoff picture has gotten, losing even just a couple could be the difference.
The Division Is Suddenly More Competitive
The days of the Golden Knights lording over their division could be at an end. This franchise has won the Pacific Division in five of its eight seasons, thanks in part to dominating franchises like the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks. The Knights have points percentages of 77% or better against four divisional opponents, which include these Californian teams. They are 56-9-8 against them all-time. But these two are getting better, and suddenly, the Pacific looks a lot tougher to win.
The Knights have already dropped their two games against the Ducks (0-1-1). And while they won both against the Sharks (2-0-0), both were one-goal contests. The Ducks now lead the division and look to be the most-improved team thanks to their major offseason changes. The Sharks, on the other hand, are flirting with playoff contention and have a record close to .500 thanks to their red-hot young talent.
The Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames look destined for the basement, while the Seattle Kraken have quickly crashed back down to Earth after a seemingly-promising start. The Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers continue to contend for one of the three divisional spots.
All-in-all, we count five or six teams contending. And sure, the Knights do not need to win the division to make the playoffs. However, the Pacific is not the only division that’s seen new competition.
New Contenders Clog Up the Wild Card Race
The Sharks are not the only hot new kids on the block. Connor Bedard’s Chicago Blackhawks are also in the thick of the playoff race. The first-overall pick is on pace for 52 goals and 113 points, effectively shutting up all the haters and making his team a legitimate threat. Not far behind are the Kraken, Utah Mammoth, and Winnipeg Jets.
The Kraken may have cooled off, but we cannot count them out entirely. If the playoffs started now, they would have one of the Western Conference wild-card spots. What they lack in offense (last in the NHL in goals), they make up for in defense and clutch playmaking (ranked in the top four in high-danger shooting percentage and high-danger save percentage).
The Mammoth have been inconsistent, but boast a top-10 offense and an intimidating group of young stars. They may be one hot goaltender away from making a strong push. Meanwhile, the Jets have made a habit of proving doubters wrong. They won the Presidents’ Trophy and have gone over their regular-season point projections in three-straight seasons (projected with 97.5 this season per Hockey Reference).
There are also the St. Louis Blues. They have fallen behind, but have shown in the past that they can go on a run like no other. Jordan Binnington mainly shows up when things get serious. We won’t be surprised if he goes on a tear closer to the 2026 Winter Olympics in February.
The Knights Can’t Afford to Show Weakness
This is the NHL, which is maybe the most cutthroat league in the world. The line between a contender and a bubble team is razor-thin. The Golden Knights are still a strong club, but the landscape has changed. The Ducks and Sharks aren’t “freebies”, the Central Division has multiple teams pushing for wild-card spots, and the Knights don’t have the health or cushion they used to lean on.
All it takes is one bad month or one hot run from a rival for the standings to flip. That’s the danger: not that the Knights aren’t talented enough, but that they’re vulnerable in a race where the margins are now slimmer, and many around them have gotten better.
If things tighten down the stretch, the Golden Knights could absolutely find themselves as the odd team out. In this league, nothing is guaranteed.
