The Florida Panthers are one round away from defending their Eastern Conference crown, but they have a tough task ahead. The New York Rangers have been excellent these playoffs and have a contrasting style of hockey that will give the Panthers their most difficult challenge of the playoffs yet. Let’s preview this year’s Eastern Conference Final, which begins at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night (May 22).
Panthers Have the Edge at 5-on-5
As was the case for the Carolina Hurricanes, the Panthers come into this series against the Rangers as the better five-on-five team. The Panthers have an expected goals share (xG%) of 50.7 percent compared to 47.25 percent for the Rangers during these playoffs. That hasn’t mattered for the Rangers, as they’ve gotten by with special teams and goaltending, which we’ll get into in a bit.
Surprisingly, the Panthers haven’t been a dominant five-on-five team in the playoffs, at least not to the level they were during the regular season. They’re only averaging 2.48 expected goals per 60 minutes, so offense has been somewhat difficult to generate.
The Rangers might be the right opponent to change that, though. They’ve been allowing 2.64 expected goals per 60 minutes during the playoffs, and their rush defense has been a problem all season. I wouldn’t call their defense awful, but it’s definitely not their strength. The Panthers will have to look to take advantage, even though they aren’t primarily a rush team offensively.
Related: 2024 Eastern Conference Final: How Well Do the Rangers Matchup Against the Panthers?
Where the Panthers do excel offensively is in creating in-zone offense. They get to work on the cycle and wreak havoc on their opponents. They ranked first in in-zone shots this season and could give the Rangers some problems that way. Stylistically, they’re not much different than the Hurricanes. They just have better finishers than the Hurricanes in Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, etc.
The Panthers also have a deeper forward group than the Rangers, with their fourth line of Nick Cousins, Kevin Stenlund and Kyle Okposo/Ryan Lomberg factoring into some of their wins. The Panthers’ third line of Eetu Luostarainen, Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues should be an advantage over Alex Wennberg, Kaapo Kakko, and whoever is the third winger on the Rangers’ third line.
That bottom-six depth helped the Panthers put the Tampa Bay Lightning away in five games, and they will need them to outplay the Rangers’ depth. If they can, that will go a long way in helping them defeat a red-hot Igor Shesterkin, who’s been outstanding in the playoffs.
Panthers Rush Defense vs. Rangers Rush Attack
You could argue that Shesterkin vs. Sergei Bobrovsky is the matchup to watch, but I’m looking at something more niche. Though the Rangers are not the best five-on-five team, their rush attack was one of the better ones in the NHL this season.
The Rangers ranked sixth in rush shots and were efficient entering the offensive zone cleanly with possession. I expect them to get rush chances this series, but they have met their match in the Panthers, one of the best rush defense teams in the NHL.
The Panthers finished ranked first in rush shots against in 2023-24, and their five-on-five defense was generally tremendous. As you’ll see in the graphic below, they were a top-two team in preventing attempts, chances and one-timers. They were also elite at defending passes in almost every category:
Something else that could also stifle the Rangers’ rush attack is the Panthers ranking first in preventing zone entries with puck possession. In my opinion, this is the key to the Panthers winning the series and advancing to the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive season. It’s how they defend the Rangers’ rush attack on the counter.
Though the Rangers don’t usually tilt the ice in their favor at five-on-five, their offense thrives on counter-attacking via the rush. Even in-zone, Artemi Panarin can create a scoring chance out of nothing with his elite cross-ice passing. The Panthers defend that and the rush very well. If they continue to do that, this series should be theirs.
Panthers Need to Neutralize Rangers’ Power Play
The Rangers’ power play torched the Washington Capitals and Hurricanes in Rounds 1 and 2. If they do the same to the Panthers, it might not matter what they do at five-on-five. They can cash in on the man advantage and bank on Shesterkin holding down the fort, something they can rely on because it works.
Fortunately, the Panthers might have a power play that can at least go toe to toe with the Rangers. Florida’s power play is generating 11.02 expected goals per 60 minutes in the playoffs, just a tick above the 10.34 xGs per 60 the Rangers’ power play is averaging.
The Panthers’ power play is converting on 22 percent of their chances, a solid enough number but nowhere near the 31.4 percent clip the Rangers have. The key for the Panthers isn’t necessarily to win the power-play battle. It’s to neutralize the Rangers’ advantage. They can do that by scoring on a few, but they’ll also need their penalty kill to step up.
Their PK has been excellent through these playoffs, killing 86.1 percent of the power plays they’ve faced. The Rangers present the most difficult challenge for their penalty kill yet, so they have a tough task ahead. That’s why they need to be disciplined and stay out of the box. No matter how good their penalty kill is, the Rangers will make them pay if they get enough opportunities. They probably won’t win this series if they play undisciplined hockey and let the Rangers cook while up a man.
Bobrovsky vs. Shesterkin
You might look at Sergei Bobrovsky’s .902 SV% during the playoffs and think he’s not playing well. The truth is that the Panthers have made life pretty easy for him. He’s only faced 264 shots in 11 playoff games, an average of 24 shots on goal per game. But overall, his underlying numbers show he’s playing well.
Bobrovsky has a quality start percentage of .636 in the playoffs, a number considered good in Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract. Bobrovsky has saved 2.6 goals above expected and has a five-on-five save percentage of .916. Because the Rangers are not the best five-on-five team, I expect his workload to look similar to the first two series of the playoffs.
On the other side, Shesterkin has been nothing short of amazing in the postseason. He has a five-on-five save percentage of .928 and has saved 8.8 goals above expected. Only Jeremy Swayman has saved more goals than expected during the playoffs.
The good news for the Panthers is that they managed to get past Swayman in Round 2 despite him saving nearly six goals above expected in that series. The Panthers shouldn’t be intimidated by Shesterkin, even though he presents another stiff challenge, since they’ve already gotten past Andrei Vasilevskiy and Swayman.
Based on these two teams’ outputs at five-on-five, Shesterkin should face more quality looks than Bobrovsky. The latter will have his work cut out on the penalty kill. But as long as Bobrovsky doesn’t give up untimely soft goals, the Panthers will have a chance. If he does, that Panthers’ challenge only gets that much more difficult.
Prediction
Despite the Panthers having some clear advantages at five-on-five, this should be a pretty even series. The Rangers’ power play and Shesterkin will give them a chance as they have all season long. The key for the Panthers will be neutralizing the Rangers’ rush attack on the counter at five-on-five and limiting New York’s power-play opportunities. They will lose the series if they can’t do either of those things. But given that their rush defense and penalty kill are strengths, they should have enough to come away with the win in what looks like a coin flip of a series.
Panthers in 7
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Money Puck. Microstats from JFresh Hockey, data tracked by Corey Sznajder via his A3Z project
