Projecting Senators’ Contract Extensions for 2026

The offseason has officially arrived, and the Ottawa Senators are going to be busy. There is plenty of trade speculation, we are looking ahead to the draft, and wondering if the Senators will be making any moves in free agency. One thing to be sure to include in their offseason to-do list is looking internally and dealing with the upcoming free agents, as well as the extensions they could hand out.

Using the projected contracts from AFP Analytics, let’s have a look at what they suggest the eligible Senators should be signing for, and whether or not the team should sign that kind of deal.

Projected Contracts for 2026 Free Agents

The Senators have a bit of work to do internally with their restricted and unrestricted free agents. Some of these deals will be much easier to get done than others.

Claude Giroux, UFA – 1 x $2.496 Million

While the 38-year-old veteran has been a huge addition for the Senators since signing as a free agent in 2022, he has started to slow down with age. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t an effective player still, but his days as a top-six producer may be behind him.

Much of the value Claude Giroux brings comes off the ice with his leadership. Captain Brady Tkachuk has stated many times how helpful it has been to have Giroux around. In addition to his leadership, Giroux has been a key faceoff-taker for the club.

Despite playing on the wing all season, Giroux is still taking plenty of faceoffs and has had one of the best success rates in the league at 63.1 percent. In a third-line role, there is still certainly value in bringing Giroux back, and he could be one of the players who could jump into the top-six when needed.

At just under $2.5 million, that could certainly be a deal worth signing. The caveat to that is, where is he going to fit?

The Senators currently have Ridly Greig, Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto, and Warren Foegele, who work best in a third-line role. Adding Giroux to the mix would give the Senators five third-liners. If there could be an agreement about two of them spending time on the fourth line and having one of the strongest bottom-six groups in the league, it could make sense.

Contractually, the deal would be great value for Ottawa. They just need to be clear about what the expectations are. In a perfect world, none of those five players are regular staples in the top-six, but they make for an excellent bottom-six.

Verdict: Deal

Jordan Spence, RFA – 1 x $3.1 Million / 4 x $4.882 Million

There are two proposed extensions from AFP Analytics, one short-term and one at four years. If the Senators are going to sign him, the expectation would be that it would be four years or more.

There has been a strange amount of trade talk regarding Jordan Spence, but the Senators don’t seem to be actively shopping him.

Spence played very well at the end of the season when given an elevated role. A lot of the trade talk with Spence could be coming from the fit with the team. Playing alongside a left-shot defenseman like Kleven makes a lot of sense, but alongside Chabot, it isn’t as strong a fit.

Spence has established himself as a legitimate top-four option. He moves the puck well, has strong skating, and can play well on the defensive side of the puck. If the Senators were to move him, it would certainly be for better value than they acquired him for, being a third and sixth-round draft pick.

At under five million dollars, the Senators should be more than happy to bring him back. There were no problems with his play whatsoever – it’s just a matter of the right roster construction.

Verdict: Deal

Lars Eller, UFA – 1 x $1.217 Million

The conversation about Lars Eller has to piggyback off of where we ended with Giroux. There are only so many roster spots, and the place for Eller would be the fourth line. Throughout the 2025-26 season, Eller was a great fit for the fourth-line centre spot, but with Stephen Halliday knocking on the door, it might be time to move on.

Of the five third-line-calibre players mentioned, most are wingers. Pinto is a lock for the centre spot on the third line, and Greig, another centre option, could be used in the top-six.

If the Senators think that Eller is a better fit for the fourth-line centre role than Halliday can be, or they don’t think they could find a better option in free agency, they could bring Eller back, and just over $1.2 million isn’t a bad price for him.

Verdict: No Deal – run with Halliday instead

Nick Cousins, UFA – 2 x $2.148 Million

Here we are again, looking at another bottom-six winger the Senators will need to make a decision on. Cousins is generally a great presence in a fourth-line role. He plays physical hockey and is the most hated player in the league.

The Senators have been working toward that kind of identity for a while, and Cousins was a perfect match for that.

Since Steve Staios started building the roster his way, it has been leaning toward a more defensively responsible bottom-six and a hard-nosed, skilled top-six.

Cousins may not fit that kind of style the Senators are building. He did well in his short stint with the Senators, but it might be time to move on.

Verdict: No Deal

Leevi Merilainen, RFA – 1 x $1.05 Million

There is a lot to like about Leevi Merilainen. He didn’t have the best showing in 2025-26, however, his play in 2024-25 got a lot of people’s hopes up. There is certainly an NHL future for him, but the Senators need a backup goalie they can rely on.

Merilainen is almost certainly going to get a deal that is very close to this projected one, but with no waiver exemption for 2026-27, it puts them in a difficult spot.

While the goalie situation is a conversation for another day, signing this deal would be a no-brainer for the Senators.

Verdict: Deal

Arthur Kaliyev, RFA – 1 x $850,000

The start of Arthur Kaliyev’s career was very promising. He lit up the Ontario Hockey League, scoring 200 points across his final two seasons, and as an American Hockey League (AHL) rookie, posted 31 points in 40 games.

Kaliyev has some strong offensive abilities. Through his first two NHL seasons with the Los Angeles Kings, he posted 27 points, followed by 28 points, with the latter coming in just 56 games. Since then, the wheels have fallen off a bit. He spent time in the AHL with the Kings’ organization and has ended up with the Senators.

In 2025-26, Kaliyev spent the year in the AHL with the Belleville Senators, leading the team in both goals and points. Not only that, but Kaliyev finished first in goals with 40 and third in the whole league with 70.

The Senators need more offense in their lineup. Does he finally get a shot?

The problem is that the offense the Senators need is in a top-six role. Kaliyev likely isn’t going to be placed there, but it could be worth a shot, especially at that price.

Best case, the Senators find a spot in the lineup where Kaliyev can chip in offensively without a heavy defensive workload. Worst case, they could sign this deal and be able to bury his contract in the AHL if it comes to that.

Verdict: Deal

Nick Jensen, UFA – 2 x $3.316 Million

On paper, the Jakob Chychrun trade looks bad, and maybe it just simply is bad, but Nick Jensen was the exact kind of player the Senators needed to add for the 2024-25 season. He played very well defensively, was a great anchor alongside Thomas Chabot, and helped them get to the playoffs.

The 2025-26 season was a different story. Jensen struggled a lot, and whether it was age catching up to him, lingering injuries, or anything else, it didn’t work as well.

Jensen couldn’t be trusted for large parts of the season, and after the Olympic break, through seven games, he looked like the former version of himself. Unfortunately for the player and team, he was shut down for a knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus.

That marked the end of Jensen’s time in Ottawa. Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch has reported, multiple times, that the Senators are going to let him go to free agency. (from ‘Steve Staios will continue push to be Stanley Cup contender after Senators make early exit’, Ottawa Sun, April 27, 2026)

Verdict: No Deal

Dennis Gilbert, UFA – 1 x $850,000

At the tail end of the season, everything was going very poorly for the Senators’ defense group. They lost almost all of the NHL regulars and needed their depth options to step up. Dennis Gilbert was one of the players to step up.

With six games played in March, Gilbert was a very good presence on the blue line in lieu of Tyler Kleven. The Senators’ left side is quite stable with Jake Sanderson and Chabot there, along with Kleven, but depth is always needed.

The Senators have Jorian Donovan and Tomas Hamara on the left side, who could be getting closer to jumping into NHL action if needed, but having Gilbert around could be helpful.

As it stands now, the seventh defenseman on the roster would be Nikolas Matinpalo, which would put Gilbert on track to hit waivers during training camp.

The Senators would be in a better place with him in the organization, so signing him to a deal and hoping to keep him could be a good plan.

Verdict: Deal

James Reimer, UFA – 1 x $850,000

James Reimer was brought in as a panic move, and while it worked out fairly well, there is almost no chance he returns. The Senators are going to be looking at bringing in a much more reliable backup goaltender.

Verdict: No Deal

Lassi Thomson, UFA – 1 x $850,000

This one will be short and sweet. Lassi Thomson, who was a first-round pick by the Senators in 2019, stepped up when they needed him, but has already signed a new deal with HC Lugano in the Swiss National League.

If he hadn’t, for what it’s worth, this would be a good deal to sign.

Verdict: No Deal

Alex Formenton, RFA – No Projection

Another simple one here. Garrioch reported that the Senators have filed the paperwork to remove Alex Formenton from the team’s reserve list, and he will be an unrestricted free agent. (from ‘Senators cut ties with Alex Formenton, making winger an unrestricted free agent’, Ottawa Sun, June 18, 2026)

Garrioch added, “The Senators had been trying to deal the rights to Formenton elsewhere after he was among five players on the 2018 Canadian world junior team found not guilty of sexual assault in a London, Ont., trial that ended in July 2025.”

Verdict: No Deal

Mads Sogaard, UFA – 1 x $850,000

Like Thomson, Formenton, and Jensen, there are reports that the Senators are going to let Sogaard go to free agency.

Garrioch wrote, “Mads Sogaard is a restricted free agent. The expectation is he won’t be back, but the Senators may give him a qualifying offer to retain his rights. The club tried to trade him at the deadline last year.” (from ‘Who can back up Linus Ullmark? Breaking down the Senators’ goalie options’, Ottawa Sun, May 19, 2026)

Verdict: No Deal

2026-27 Cap Situation Following Expiring Deals

Based on this column, taking back Giroux, Spence, Merilainen, Kaliyev, and Gilbert, that would run the Senators roughly $9.5 million in cap space, if all players were on the NHL roster. That would leave them with about $7.5 million in cap space for 2026-27 and projected to have over $40 million for 2027-28.

Not every one of these deals is a guarantee, but bringing all of those players back would leave a potential backup goaltender job available, and either a chance for Carter Yakemchuk to make the team, or the addition of another right-shot defenseman. This would leave them in a pretty good place.

Projected Contract Extensions for 2027 Free Agent Class

The Senators have more than this offseason to worry about. On top of the players they have to take care of for this season, there are a number of core players who become extension-eligible this summer, and Staios is going to have to take a hard look at some of those.

Drake Batherson, UFA – 6 x $9.82 Million

I recently wrote a piece looking at why Drake Batherson could be the next $10 million man in the NHL, and that the Senators should sign him to that kind of deal. The team needs more offensive play in the top-six, and Batherson does that.

With Batherson’s consistently growing offensive output, he has reached the 70-point threshold and is a staple of the top-six.

The need right now is for another top-six winger. Not an upgrade on Batherson, not for him to step up more, but an additional winger.

In the current landscape of the salary cap, Batherson is more than within his rights to seek a new deal pushing the $10 million range.

Verdict: Deal

Warren Foegele, UFA – 3 x $3.07 Million

While his production wasn’t outstanding after joining the Senators, Foegele scored some big goals for the Senators in the last quarter of the season, and that isn’t even his primary job.

Foegele joined an already strong defensive bottom-six group, and made it that much better. The impact he has on most nights is stellar, and for a role player, he can be quite flashy. Foegele has topped out around a 40-point player in the right spot, and with a tight bottom-six, he might be a better bet for the 30-point range with the Senators.

If they can bring him back on a new deal with a bit of term like AFP Analytics suggests, the Senators should be all over that.

Verdict: Deal

Michael Amadio, UFA – 3 x $3.76 Million

All of the same things said about Foegele can be said about Michael Amadio. He has been an excellent asset on the third line and is the exact type of player the Senators are trying to build their team with.

Amadio earned 31 points in Selke Trophy voting this season, which included two second-place votes. While that is far from being a true contender for the trophy, it is an honour for a winger to get that recognition. Only five wingers across the league finished higher than he did, and every one of them had more ice time than Amadio.

If the Senators can bring him back on this type of deal, I think they will do it without much question.

Verdict: Deal

Artem Zub, UFA – 4 x $5.07 Million

Since joining the team as a free agent in 2020, Artem Zub has been the best shutdown defenseman on the Senators. He plays alongside Sanderson, and the two of them make for one of the best defensive top-pair duos in the league.

Zub will be 31 years old when this extension kicks in, and the Senators wouldn’t want to go much further than four years.

To be honest, this projection feels low. Zub will likely be closer to the $6.5 million mark if he were to sign for four years or less.

If this is the kind of deal on the table, the Senators should certainly be on that. There is a chance his play starts to slow down, but even so, if Zub becomes the number four on the team, or even on the third pair, he will more than likely still bring this kind of value.

Verdict: Deal

Tyler Kleven, RFA – 1 x $3.79 Million / 4 x $5.46 Million

The Senators are very fortunate to have Sanderson locked down to such a great contract for quite a bit of time. The Senators’ biggest strengths are the left side of their defense and their centres. Back to the Chychrun trade, part of the problem with keeping him was that he would have to play behind the top two defensemen, and he ended up signing for a $9 million annual cap hit. There was no way they were doing that for another leftie.

Is over $5 million more stomachable? For sure, but that is still a lot. Is he worth that money? Probably, but a left side worth $22 million is a bold bet.

There is a chance that the club projects Kleven as a legitimate top-four option, and with Chabot only having two more seasons under contract, could there be a change on the back end?

This could be a very situational deal. Nobody will know what is going on in the head of Staios, and moving on from Chabot is likely far from the forefront of his mind, so a one-year deal could make more sense as he would be a restricted free agent, and they could have one more season to evaluate him.

Verdict: Deal (short term)

Nikolas Matinpalo, UFA – 1 x $1.9 Million

Like Zub, Nikolas Matinpalo was a European free agent signing, and he has worked out pretty well. While he hasn’t become a full-time regular, he has played 91 games over the past two seasons, and with great skating and the ability to move the puck out of the zone, he has been a reliable option.

He is about as good as you need a seventh defenseman to be.

It would make sense if Matinpalo looked to go elsewhere and aim for a bigger role. He may very well be capable of it.

If Matinpalo is coming back as the seventh defenseman for this price, and he is happy to stay in the role he is in, this deal could make a lot of sense.

Verdict: Deal

Long-Term Cap Outlook

So with this list, a lot of it is keeping things status quo. That is very unlikely to happen. Some of these players will undoubtedly move on, whether it be via trade or departing to free agency. These projections and verdicts were on a case-by-case basis and not necessarily dependent on each other.

With that being said, what if the Senators did make all of these deals?

As established above, the Senators would have over $40 million heading into the 2027-28 season, and with these contract extensions all kicking in, they would take up $25 million of that.

Even if the Senators go all-in on their own players, they could be in a pretty good spot with their cap space.