Sharks’ Stenberg Will Outperform Past SHL Standouts in Rookie Season

Ivar Stenberg is coming off the fifth best point total for an 18-year-old in SHL history. Only Daniel Sedin (1998-99), Markus Naslund (1991-92), Tomas Sandstrom (1982-83) and Henrik Sedin (1998-99) have fared better than the newest Sharks lottery pick.

Todd Marchant, the San Jose Sharks director of player development told Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now that “There’s no doubt” Stenberg is ready for the NHL, but also understands “there’s a curve that each player has to go through.” 

On June 23, the Sharks stunned the hockey world by trading William Eklund, a pillar of San Jose’s rebuild up until that point, and a prospect to the Ottawa Senators for the ninth-overall pick in the draft. After trading the Swedish winger, the writing was on the wall that the Sharks would replace him with another Swede in Stenberg. 

Logically, it wouldn’t make sense for San Jose to trade Eklund, who is only 23 years old, if they weren’t sure Stenberg could slot into the NHL lineup immediately. The Sharks’ have indicated their rebuilding phase is done in San Jose by bringing in Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba and Mason Marchment to add much needed snarl to their group. 

Here are how the four other Swedish standouts’ with higher point totals in their 18-year-old seasons performed in their rookie seasons in the NHL, which should give some insight on Stenberg’s stats for 2026-27. 

Daniel Sedin

Daniel Sedin is at the top of this list with the best point total for an 18-year-old in the SHL with the now relegated MoDo Hockey club where it took him 50 games to hit 42 points in the notoriously defensive minded league. Sedin returned to MoDo the following year as well, improving to 45 points in 50 games before his rookie season with the Vancouver Canucks in 2000-2001.

The 20-year-old center played a solid 75 games, scoring 20 goals and totaling 34 points. Obviously 34 points isn’t Earth-shattering by any means, but hitting 20 goals for a playoff team is impressive enough to finish eight in Calder Trophy voting. 

Markus Näslund

The 16th-overall pick of the 1991 Draft, the first year of the Sharks existence where they selected Pat Falloon second-overall, made his debut in the 1993-94 season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Similarly to the Sedin twins, Markus Näslund played for MoDo in his 18 and 19-year-old seasons where he scored 40 and 39 points in 39 games both years before making the leap to the NHL as a 20-year-old. 

He struggled his rookie year, scoring just 11 points in 71 games and four points in 14 games in his sophomore campaign. Näslund spent time with the Penguins IHL affiliate Cleveland Lumberjacks those two seasons before figuring out his game in 1995-96 where the game finally slowed down. He scored 55 points in 76 games as a 22-year-old. 

Näslund did not appear in either playoff run for the Penguins and was shipped out in the middle of the 1995-96 season to Vancouver, where he would eventually become teammates with the Sedin twins. He would then spend 11 of the next 12 years with the Canucks before leaving the NHL. 

Tomas Sandström

Tomas Sandström scored 37 points in 36 games for Brynas IF when he was 18. He too would spend another year in Sweden before venturing to the NHL where he was picked 36th-overall to the New York Rangers. 

He impressed in his rookie year by scoring the fourth most points on the team. Sandström notched 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 74 games. In the opening round of the playoffs where the Rangers were swept three games to none by the Philadelphia Flyers, Sandström recorded two assists. His stellar rookie year earned him a spot on the NHL’s All-Rookie team for 1984-85.  

Henrik Sedin

The other Sedin twin was attached at the hip to Daniel in their extra year in Sweden and debuted for the Canucks the same year. They each scored their first NHL point on the same play when Henrik assisted Daniel on a goal in a 5-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. 

2000-01 foreshadowed the Sedin twins’ career at large, where Daniel would score more goals and Henrik would be more of a playmaker. Henrik experienced more of a learning curve scoring just 29 points with nine goals, which is obviously less than Daniel, but he played all 82 games. 

Projecting Ivar Stenberg’s 2026-27 Season

If Stenberg does indeed start the season with the Sharks, he will be the youngest of this select Swedish group to do so by a full year. The 2nd-overall pick in the 2026 Draft will turn 19 on September 30, which is primed to be the beginning of the season. 

While Stenberg is younger than the rest, he is also fortunate enough to play with more talented players than most of the list. Näslund did play on the same team as Mario Lemieux and Jaromír Jágr, but he struggled to stay in the lineup after immense growing pains his rookie year; The top point getter on the Rangers when Sandström was a rookie was Reijo Ruotsalainen, a Finnish defenseman who only played seven years in the NHL; and oddly enough the Canucks leading scorer in the Sedin twins’ rookie year was Näslund. 

Stenberg will get the opportunity to play with an incredibly skilled forward group headlined by players like Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Michael Misa and Igor Chernyshov. Sharks head coach Ryan Warsofsky is notorious for throwing new forwards on Celebrini’s wing to see what sticks, so he’ll get the luxury of being the third option on a line that the opposition has focused their entire gameplan on stopping Celebrini first, then Smith. 

If he plays with Misa, that will also open him up for scoring opportunities as teams will focus more on Misa, the 2nd-overall pick in the 2025 Draft, who has an NHL season under his belt already. Even if he slides to the third line, he will be with fellow Swede Alex Wennberg who is an underrated play driver in his own right. 

Stenberg’s offensive skillset with his hockey IQ, elite hands and vision will likely earn him power play minutes, where again he will be set up beautifully as a fourth or fifth option with Celebrini on the ice or as a pivotal member of the second unit. 

Other noteworthy comparisons for young forwards adapting to the NHL game can be found on his own team. The aforementioned Smith and Misa had their own learning curves in their rookie years. Smith had 45 points in 74 games but showed signs he was figuring out the tempo and toughness required in the second half of the year. Misa similarly found his game in the back half after recovering from an ankle injury. He returned post Olympic break, ending the year with a four-game point streak capping his season totals to 21 points in 45 games. 

The average games played for the other four Swedes in their rookie seasons was 75.5 and the average point total was 33. If you remove the Näslund outlier 11 point season, the average is 40.3.

The factors that should be considered for Stenberg’s rookie year is the performance of the other top Swedes, the talent Stenberg will be set up with, the fact he won’t initially be pressured to carry any lines, he is already skilled enough at his young age to potentially make the roster at 19 and there will be power play opportunity for the taking.

With all that considered, expectations for Stenberg should be to out perform his fellow countrymen. He should hit the high 40s if plays at least 76 games and realistically crack the 50s or 60s if he plays a full 84 games. Anything less would be slightly disappointing for such a gifted young player with ample opportunity surrounded by skilled playmakers. My final prediction for Stenberg is 58 points in 75 games finishing top three in Calder votes.