Arbitration for Robertson May Be Blessing in Disguise for Dallas Stars

The 2025-26 season has come and gone, the offseason is almost half over, and the Jason Robertson saga in Dallas has still not reached its conclusion. After turning down multiple trades and contract extensions, including one with the Dallas Stars for $96 million, Robertson filed for arbitration, and the date of July 25 has been set.

That means that the two sides have until then to figure out an extension or a trade, and it also means that Robertson is no longer eligible for an offer sheet. In addition, the arbitrator has 48 hours to email them the decided number, and the Stars would have to either sign him to that number for one or two years, or let him walk to free agency.

So, where do the Stars and Robertson go from here?

Arbitration May Be a Blessing in Disguise For Both Sides

Typically speaking, both management and the player try to avoid arbitration at all costs. It can be messy, and feelings can be hurt. The player makes their case for as much money as possible, while the team lists every reason why he isn’t worth it. Doesn’t sound very fun, does it? But, in this case, arbitration might be a blessing in disguise for general manager Jim Nill and the Stars.

After turning down an eight-year deal at $12 million average annual value (AAV), Robertson’s ask appears to be in the $14 million-plus range, which is currently too rich for the Stars, who have $10.69 million in cap space remaining for the 2026-27 season. Beyond that, however, it is more than doable. According to PuckPedia, the Stars will have $41.16 million to play with in 2027-28, when the salary cap is projected to go up to $113.5 million, and will have a total of eight players coming off the books. The cap will be going up again in 2028-29 to $123 million.

If Robertson and the Stars can come to a resolution from arbitration and sign a one-year deal, he will be eligible to sign an extension on Jan. 1. Who knows what the final number will be, but the arbitrator could settle on anything between $9-$11.5 million. The Stars still have some cap shedding to do to make this work, but if they can, he will get his $14 million and maybe more, just a little down the road; that’s all.

It seems like Robertson wants to stay in Dallas, and Nill has been clear that the Stars want to keep him. As brutal and tedious as arbitration might be, this might be the way for both sides to eventually get what they want.

A Trade Is Still on the Table

I don’t know how realistic this is, but there is a world where the arbitrator comes to the conclusion that Robertson should get his $14 million-plus now. Obviously, the Stars wouldn’t be able to give it to him. That makes trading Robertson still very much on the table, whether it is now or after arbitration. If they trade him after, though, it makes sense that the return would be way less than it would be now.

Disgruntled Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin recently added the Stars to his list of teams that he would accept a trade to, and while he is a terrific hockey player, it only kind of makes sense, not fully.

Financially, it 100% makes sense. Larkin makes $8.7 million AAV until 2030-31, which wouldn’t only help the Stars now, but it would help them build their roster in the future. As far as the depth chart goes, it makes less sense. Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Matt Duchene make up the center position in the first three lines, with guys like Radek Faksa, Oskar Back, and Jamie Benn who can slot into that fourth spot. While Larkin would certainly be an upgrade on Duchene and Faksa, it would be solving a problem that they don’t really have.

Even if Robertson stays, the Stars don’t have enough top-six wingers. If they have to trade him, they should get the best player and return that they can. But, in a perfect world, they would be able to fill a need that they currently have, not add to an already deep position and leave current holes on the roster.

One Way or Another, We’ll Find Out Soon Enough

With the arbitration date of July 25 set in stone, we’ll have more clarity on the situation soon enough. In a previous article, I said that it’s hard to envision a world in which Robertson stays in Dallas. Well, this is it. If they can come to a one-year agreement, fully knowing that the Stars will back up the Brink truck for their best goal scorer on Jan. 1, then all will be right with the world. If not, he’ll be playing somewhere else.

Either way, there is a solution coming, one way or another.