Avalanche Have a Scott Wedgewood Problem

The Colorado Avalanche have solved their Scott Wedgewood problem the easiest way possible, by handing Mackenzie Blackwood the crease night after night. The schedule is about to make that arrangement a lot harder to keep.

Wedgewood hasn’t played since Nov. 3, when the Columbus Blue Jackets chased him after four goals on nine shots in a 7-2 loss. Colorado is 10-3-1 when Blackwood gets the decision and 1-3-1 when Wedgewood does, so head coach Jared Bednar’s recent choices are easy to understand.

The coming weeks will test how far a team can lean on one goalie, though. Colorado has to decide if Wedgewood deserves a fairer chance to recover or if one of the goalies in Loveland has earned that chance first.

Wedgewood’s Losing Streak Hides One Good Night

Wedgewood has lost three straight starts, but calling them three identical failures skips over his best game of the season. He stopped 37 of 40 shots in New Jersey on Oct. 20, and the Avalanche still lost 4-3, which is about as much as anyone can ask of a backup on the road.

The two starts that followed were a different story. The Blue Jackets and Nashville Predators were rough enough to sink his save percentage (SV%) across the skid to .845, even with the Devils game propping it up. The results deserve scrutiny, yet the game log asks for more nuance than a list of losses.

His season line, an .867 SV% and a 4.02 goals-against average, would set off alarms for any contender. To his credit, the track record behind those numbers points to a higher floor. PuckPedia’s model had him at 23.12 goals saved above expected last season, an estimate of the goals he kept out beyond what the quality of shots against him predicted.

A season like that buys him some patience, although it can’t buy him a permanent pass. Colorado needs proof that last season’s goalie is still in there, and he can’t provide it from the end of the bench.

Jared Bednar Owes Wedgewood a Fairer Test

Four of Wedgewood’s five starts have come on the second night of a back-to-back, with road assignments in Calgary, New Jersey and Columbus among them. Fatigue doesn’t explain every goal, but it does put an asterisk on any comparison with Blackwood.

The offense hasn’t done him many favors, either. Colorado has scored 78 goals in 19 games, and only nine came in Wedgewood’s last four starts, a thin cushion for a goalie fighting out of a slump.

Granted, the tired-legs theory has a hole in it. His one rested start was the rough night in Nashville on Oct. 25, when he allowed six goals on 35 shots. A friendlier schedule would make for a fairer test without promising a cure.

On the other side of the rotation, Blackwood has started 14 of Colorado’s first 19 games. Keep that share across the NHL’s new 84-game schedule, and he lands somewhere around 62 starts, a heavy load even if he stays healthy.

The smarter move is to hand Wedgewood a rested start before making any permanent change. Bednar would learn more from that night than from another evening behind a lineup running on fumes, and Blackwood would get a planned breather.

Ilya Nabokov and Trent Miner Give Colorado Options in Loveland

Ilya Nabokov made a case of his own on the same night the Avalanche won in Toronto. The 23-year-old stopped all three Abbotsford shooters in the shootout as the Eagles won 4-3 on Nov. 10, and he arrived in North America with a Gagarin Cup and a Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) playoff MVP award.

His .927 SV% through nine American Hockey League (AHL) appearances strengthens the case for a closer look. Still, AHL numbers don’t prove he can handle NHL shooters, and Colorado has to weigh regular development starts in Loveland against occasional backup duty in Denver. Any promotion needs a real plan for playing time, or he would mostly be watching Blackwood work.

Trent Miner belongs in the conversation, too. He posted a .933 SV% in four NHL appearances last season before helping the Eagles reach the Western Conference Final, a small sample but a second internal option all the same.

Looking inside the organization makes sense after the Avalanche sent Toronto conditional first- and fifth-round picks for Nicolas Roy. Wedgewood’s $2.5 million contract expires after this season as well, so Colorado can sort out the backup job without committing to another long-term purchase.

The back-to-backs on Nov. 18-19 against the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks, then Nov. 27-28 against the Minnesota Wild and San Jose Sharks, give Bednar natural spots to run that test. If Wedgewood answers, the problem takes care of itself, and if he can’t, Colorado’s fix sits a short drive up Interstate 25 in Loveland.