Avalanche’s Aging Core’s Window to Win is Slowly Closing

Despite bowing out a bit earlier than anyone thought, a sweep at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights, the Colorado Avalanche remain on the shortlist of contenders going into the 2026-27 season. They are not without their questions, but have the kind of talent that few others in the NHL do.

One of the biggest problems facing the Avalanche isn’t one that becomes a problem this season or even beginning in 2027-28. No, the Avalanche are starting to look at a closing contention window because the majority of their core is on the wrong side of 30 and getting closer to the end of the line with each passing day.

The Core is Getting Older

Like it or not, Father Time catches up with virtually all of the greatest athletes. Sure, it took someone like Tom Brady to hit 45 before he had to move on, but it happens all the same. For the most part, the drop off comes far sooner, often in a player’s mid-30s.

For that reason, the Avalanche no doubt see the problem forming down the road. Though they have a couple of potential Hart Trophy candidates in their midst, that level of performance can only go on for so long.

Nathan MacKinnon is about to turn 31. Gabriel Landeskog will turn 34 in November. Devon Toews, Josh Manson, Logan O’Connor, Brock Nelson, Artturi Lehkonen , Nazem Kadri , Mackenzie Blackwood, and Scott Wedgewood are all either over 30 or turning 30 during the season.

In the short term, that’s grizzled experience. Two or three years down the line? That’s a serious issue. There are anomalies and MacKinnon seems to be one of them who perform at an elite level until their final day in the league. For most others, this is the point where a precipitous fall-off begins happening.

The $20 Million Cale Makar Problem

The obvious solution is to add youth throughout the lineup. That said, the Avalanche are facing mounting issues on that front as well. Part of that has to due with the looming contract extension due to all-world defenseman Cale Makar.

Entering the final season of a six-year, $54 million contract, Makar is going to be realistically seeking double his current $9 million-per-year contract. Given the premium paid to defensemen, not to mention Macklin Celebrini’s new $18.8 million-per-season extension, and it feels reasonable to say that Makar will command nearly $20 million per season.

Even if he settles for something in the $16 million range, that still severely limits an Avalanche team already facing the cap crunch. They had to part with valuable depth pieces like Valeri Nichushkin, Jack Drury, and Ross Colton this offseason. The Avalanche are projected to have roughly $32 million in cap space for next season but have Makar, Wedgewood, Lehkonen, and Nicolas Roy to re-sign as well, not to mention Nelson coming up for free agency the following summer.

It is going to take a good bit of work by Colorado general manager Joe Sakic to make all the pieces fit while supplementing the group with enough youthful talent to keep the Avalanche in contention. That is far easier said than done.

Limited Trade Capital

Another factor that hinders the Avalanche is their limited capital and prospect pool. Like other teams with major aspirations, the Avalanche have made a regular habit of trading future assets for pieces that can help them capture another championship. They are finding their limits, however.

They don’t have a first round pick until 2029, plus they have traded their 2028 second-round and 2029 third-round picks. The only reason they have a second-round pick in 2027 is because of the Charlie Coyle trade from last June.

In terms of prospects, the Avalanche are ranked 28^th according to The Athletic, with Gavin Brindley being their best prospect. He looks ready to take a full-time NHL spot, but only goalie Ilya Nabokov look like solid NHL bets. The rest of the pool is filled with talented players that have real question marks.

Brindley and Nabokov are the only real assets Sakic could trade for an impactful player. Combined with a shortage of picks, it becomes easy to see a drained pipeline becoming a major hindrance for the Avalanche.

The Time to Capitalize is Now

The simple fact of the matter is that the Avalanche have a lot to prove. Another elimination short of the Stanley Cup Final won’t be tolerated and will no doubt ratch the pressure facing the management team currently.

In the end, the Avalanche are going to remain contenders in the immediate future. But if they continue on this path for another two or three seasons, it is going to catch up with them fast. The fall will not be pretty to watch.