In a few short games, Montreal Canadiens forward Christian Dvorak has gone from an arguable Professional Tryout (PTO) signee for some team short on veterans next fall to potentially having earned a multi-year deal once he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1… maybe even with the Habs.
Heading into 2024-25 such a sentiment would have been silly, as there was even a good argument for the Canadiens to trade Dvorak for pennies on the dollar then. They were relatively flush at centre. He had proven unable to stay in the lineup over an entire season. His offensive production had dried up from the 33 points in 56 games he had scored in a second-line role in his first season with the Habs in 2021-22, all culminating in him falling down the depth chart and scoring just five goals and nine points in 30 games last season.
Dvorak Hits New Career High
To be completely transparent, it’s not like Dvorak’s production has rebounded significantly this season. In 69 games, he has nine goals and 26 points, totals which have arguably been inflated by his recent surge in scoring, including the career-high four points (one goal, three assists) he scored in a critical win over the Ottawa Senators last week.
Dvorak also scored a critical insurance marker the previous game, in a 3-1 win over the Florida Panthers. And, in the Canadiens’ most recent game on Saturday, a 5-4 shootout loss to the visiting Colorado Avalanche, in which the Habs mounted an improbable third-period comeback from three down, Dvorak was the one who scored the game-tying goal.
It would be foolish to suggest Dvorak has all of a sudden rediscovered his scoring touch at Age 29. That’s simply because it was relatively modest to start, resulting in a career-high 18 goals in 2019-20 with the then-Arizona Coyotes. However, with Dvorak having been acquired to compensate for the departures down the middle of Phillip Danault and Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the summer of 2021, effectively to play on the second line, he never was able to adequately take his production up a notch. It’s gone down instead.
Related: Canadiens Get Short-Term Upgrade on Kotkaniemi in Dvorak
So, even after Dvorak’s best season with the Canadiens, his first, new-general manager Kent Hughes acquired Kirby Dach (and Sean Monahan). Three years later, with Monahan having gotten traded away as a pending unrestricted free agent and Dach having sustained another season-ending knee injury, his future down the middle and in general mired in uncertainty, Hughes is at a crossroads. He still needs a second-line centre. Re-signing pending-UFA Jake Evans, who’s the same age as Dvorak, with Owen Beck on the way, realistically as soon as next season, shows he needs several. Is Dvorak the answer? Logically speaking, still no.
Dvorak Remains a Bad Fit with Canadiens
The main hang-up must be with Dvorak’s contract. The Canadiens can’t possibly consider re-upping him to the same term (six years) or annual average value ($4.45 million) of his current deal, based on the lack of value he’s provided the Habs since ex-GM Marc Bergevin ill-advisedly sent two high draft picks to the Coyotes to acquire him. However, a short-term deal, maybe for one or two years, with a cheap cap hit, could help bridge the gap between the present and the point at which someone like Michael Hage, the team’s top prospect down the middle who projects as a top-six forward, is ready to make the leap to the NHL.
However, there are more hang-ups than just the one. With Beck and Evans (and Suzuki) conceivably filling up spots on the team next year, there wouldn’t really be room for Dvorak, at least not at the bottom of the lineup where he’s proven to belong. He’s obviously not the second-line centre the Canadiens really need, and, while he obviously offers value in the face-off circle with a team-leading 55.2% success rate since coming over, Hughes has made it clear he sees Evans (51.6% in his career) as more of a long-term fit. So, the only spot would be on the wing, where he could also be put in a position to take critical draws.
Even then, there may not be room. Just this season, prospect Emil Heineman has gotten promoted, realistically for good. Joshua Roy is seemingly in the process of re-establishing himself as a top-nine option. Ivan Demidov should shift everyone down a rung on the right and someone like Patrik Laine to the left (Dvorak, having exclusively for all intents and purposes been deployed at center while with the Canadiens, being a left-handed shot).
That’s of course assuming Laine stays in the mix. Some have suggested the Canadiens trade him as soon as possible, for seemingly not being a good fit with the team. The fact of the matter is Laine is more of a fit than Dvorak, having scored 12 points in 11 games played since having returned from the 4 Nations Face-Off. He’s effectively doing what he’s paid to do, i.e., score. Dvorak hasn’t over four seasons with the team and one stretch of four games shouldn’t convince Hughes of anything different.
Dvorak Brings Face-Off Ability to the Table
Maybe, if Dvorak keeps up his torrid scoring pace over the final 13 games of the season, it’s a conversation worth revisiting. However, realistically, if Dvorak would be paid for anything with a new contract, it would be to take face-offs. He’d obviously fill a slot at the bottom of the line-up, but probably at the expense of someone else with more overall offensive punch, so face-offs is what he brings to the table.
If you look at the same four-game stretch, in which Dvorak undeniably made a huge difference on the scoresheet, he simply put didn’t get the job done in the dot. In only one game, against the Avalanche, did he win over 50% of his draws. Overall, in those four games, he won just 30 of 62. That may not be horrible, but, if you’re drawing conclusions over whether or not to re-sign Dvorak based on his contributions over a single week, you need to assess his game as a whole, especially the aspect of his game on which he’d be most relied.
Fair is fair, no?
Dvorak has done a good job ingratiating himself to Canadiens fans over the last four games. He deserves all the credit in the world and they should of course wish him well with his next deal, but that it comes with another team. If he’s not even allowed to make it to July 1, Hughes re-signing him before then, both parties will have made a mistake.
It won’t be a big one on Hughes’ part, as he’ll have inked a useful spare piece, presumably on a cost-effective deal. However, if Dvorak signs a proverbial show-me deal, he’ll likely find himself on the outside looking in of the line-up next season more often than not, unable to prove himself. He ultimately won’t find as much of an opportunity to score like he has recently or at all. It should be in his best interest to move on too. Thankfully, it looks as though he’s earned himself the chance to do just that.
