With Patrik Laine now in the fold, expectations as to whether or not the Montreal Canadiens earn a 2025 playoff spot must be reassessed. It’s still unlikely, after a fifth-from-last finish in 2023-24, but history says it’s at least possible. Now, with a legitimate ex-40-goal scorer in the lineup, the Canadiens at least have a better chance.
No one should be saying the Canadiens are automatically a playoff team. No team really is. The Canadiens admittedly have a lot of work to do to get there specifically. However, as such, Laine’s low-risk, high-reward potential fits in perfectly, with the low-risk element corresponding to suggestions Laine can be a distraction in the locker room.
Whenever you add a new high-profile piece, you’re obviously taking a risk the team’s chemistry changes. With Laine now on his third team at Age 26 following two trade requests that were ultimately honoured, some may see the risk level as high. However, coming out of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Laine is in the midst of rebuilding his career. He will realistically be looking to do everything he can to make this new professional relationship work, with two years left on his current contract, before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Furthermore, if expectations the Canadiens make the playoffs are low to begin with, can Laine even be considered a risk factor in all seriousness?
As a result, Laine himself doesn’t constitute an obstacle the Canadiens face in the way of a playoff spot in 2025. He can realistically only be considered an asset as they look to take the next level together. Here are the top three however, with the Canadiens facing a lower amount of obstacles relative to last season (further reflecting the rebuild’s progression):
3. Canadiens’ Goals Against
One thing Laine will help out with is goals scored, with the Canadiens having finished with a 26th-ranked 232 markers in 2023-24. As a renowned offense-first forward, he won’t really with goals against (27th-ranked 281), with the Canadiens also having given up a 30th-ranked 33.4 shots per game.
Goalie Samuel Montembeault still has a lot to prove as a No. 1. However, stats like that (and his 7.7 goals saved above expected at five-on-five, per MoneyPuck.com) say he can provide decent goaltending. Sure, his .903 save percentage doesn’t scream elite. However, as long as it’s in line with the league average and the Canadiens aren’t building a team dependent on their goalie, he won’t be what costs them a spot (with 16 of 32 teams making it in the end).
You can’t really say that regarding the team’s young defense, unfortunately. It is set to comprise some combination of Justin Barron (23), Kaiden Guhle (22), Jayden Struble (23) and Arber Xhekaj (23). Of course, the hope is they limit shots against through organic growth and development, as each is one year older with the accumulated experience to match. You can’t really say that in the cases of Logan Mailloux (21) and Lane Hutson (20), though… if suggestions they could each make the team out of training camp come to fruition, though.
To be fair, nothing is certain, especially before training camp where jobs can be won. Furthermore, general manager Kent Hughes at least indicated they weren’t afraid of sending Hutson down to the American Hockey League if need be, talking to Tony Marinaro (translated from French):
“If he needs to improve certain aspects of his game and he would be better served playing in the American Hockey League, we’ll send him there, but we’re not going to keep him in the NHL just to make him a power-play specialist.”
The same should hold true for Mailloux, whose defense could still use some work. In the unlikely event both fail to make the team (following the departure of Jordan Harris with the Laine trade), the defense should be significantly better just by virtue of everyone having additional experience under their respective belts (with perhaps sole exception to 34-year-old veteran David Savard, whose value lies more in his leadership at this point). However, a) logically at least one of them will and b) even if the defense does it may not improve enough.
There are other factors to consider.
2. Canadiens’ Atlantic Division Competition
Having just finished last in the Atlantic Division, the Canadiens obviously have at least three teams to leapfrog just to qualify for the playoffs. Each of the non-playoff teams above them are in similar positions in that they’re each rebuilding, albeit at different stages.
Related: NHL Rebuild Rankings: 2024-25 Preseason Edition
However, as alluded to at the top of the piece, the Canadiens could be seen as having taken a huge step forward in their rebuild efforts by acquiring Laine. On top of that, there is a legitimate argument that, compared to the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators, the Habs had even improved more significantly this offseason (even before Laine).
So, seeing as the Canadiens operate independently and don’t directly rely on their competition to determine where they finish in the standings, this isn’t as much an obstacle as a reality check. It’s unlikely they’ll have improved so significantly that they’ll overtake so many teams looking to similarly end their own playoff droughts. However, It’s still a possibility, one that has only gotten stronger the way the postseason has played out.
1. Another Injury-Plagued Canadiens Season
Even with Kirby Dach playing just two games last season due to injury, the Canadiens were significantly healthier than they had been from 2021-23, leading the league in man-games lost for two straight seasons. In 2023-24 though, they ranked third. In terms of Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP), they may have ranked 12th, but that stat doesn’t accurately reflect how much a player like Dach ($3.36 million cap hit) means, as someone many saw as eventually usurping Nick Suzuki for the role of No. 1 centre.
Following a No. 1-centre-esque season on Suzuki’s part, Dach usurping him has become unlikely. However, that one-time assessment of Dach’s value shows to what degree he was missed. Ultimately, as a third-overall pick (2019), Dach has the skill to be an above-average No. 2 centre, not to mention a proven penchant to make linemates better, which is why he won the job out of training camp last season.
In case it wasn’t apparent, Dach has done nothing to lose it. As a result, safely assuming the plan is to play Laine on his second line, because why would you not play an offense-first forward with a history of scoring 40 goals in an offensive role, Dach and not Laine could hold the key to this entire operation taking the league by surprise and storm in 2024-25.
The argument the Canadiens will be better as long as they are healthier is just logical. That is most true with specific regard to Dach. The Habs had to play all of 2023-24 without a second-line centre for all intents and purposes. They still improved in the standings by eight points (after having improved by 13 in 2021-22, Dach’s first with the team). Another boost in the standings should take them from 76 points to the precipice of playoff contention at the very least. That too is just simple math. Put simply, adding a rejuvenated Dach (and Laine) only bodes well for the team’s potential playoff aspirations.
