Beyond a shadow of a doubt, the Montreal Canadiens are in a better position to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. In fact, they’re probably in their best position to reach the playoffs, dating back to 2021, right after they reached the Stanley Cup Final, which says something.
Granted, considering they ended up finishing last in the entire league that season, it’s maybe only that the rebuild, which unofficially started that season, is progressing nicely. However, it also doesn’t mean general manager Kent Hughes’ rebuild is over, nor does it mean the Canadiens will end up making the playoffs in the end.
In fact, even if the Canadiens end up being more competitive this coming season, there are no guarantees that translates to a playoff spot. They probably will fall short of earning one, just to temper fan expectations. Here are the top five obstacles they face in front of them (and why), in increasing order of significance:
5. Inexperience
The Canadiens ended 2022-23 as the tenth-youngest team in the NHL. They haven’t exactly tried to gain more experience, having traded away Joel Edmundson, one of their oldest players, by all appearances just for the sake of giving their younger defensemen the experience they currently lack (which was arguably the right move).
Related: Top Canadiens Options to Replace Edmundson as Alternate Captain
So, if you’re someone who believes in intangibles like experience being critical to success, you’d have to acknowledge the deck is stacked against the Canadiens from the get-go. Of course, keep in mind a lack of experience isn’t a death sentence, with two teams with a younger average age having made the playoffs last season (Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils).
It should be pointed out those two teams each made the playoffs by a healthy margin, hitting over 100 points on the season. The Devils even reached Round 2. So, as long as the Canadiens have the right horses, they have a chance. The first question is do they, though? The second: If they do, will they hold onto them?
4. Calls for the Rebuild to Continue
It’s easy to fall into the trap of wanting the Canadiens to keep on tanking to continue to stockpile top picks and subsequently prospects. However, 2022-23 was a special case, during which the Canadiens, in spite of their internal, outward-facing calls to the contrary, were still in full-on rebuild mode. On top of that, there was a lot at stake in the form of potentially franchise-altering, generational talents at the top of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
True, a lot of those signs of rebuilding still apply. However, there comes a time when the Canadiens have to start getting better. And, by all appearances, after one significant year-over-year jump in the standings, they’re primed for another.
Now, one of those signs? The initial acquisition of Sean Monahan. Logically, Hughes didn’t acquire Monahan to help with any playoff push, due to his injury history. Few could have predicted Monahan would have the positive impact on the roster he did.
All signs point to the Canadiens purely taking on his contract for the first-round pick they got in the trade too. And there’s nothing wrong with that, when you’re rebuilding, just like there’s nothing wrong with re-signing Monahan, now that he’s proven himself as being capable of being a valuable second-line center… as long as you’re looking to make a playoff push.
In such an instance, you’re hypothetically foregoing an additional first-round pick (or whatever you can get for Monahan) at the trade deadline by holding onto him. And, if the Canadiens are still in the playoff hunt come the deadline, there’s no logical reason to trade a valuable member of your team, unless you’re bowing to pressure to continue the rebuild.
That doesn’t seem like it’s Hughes in all fairness, but not because of how it would be indicative of a tank job. He may not have actively tanked last season, but any suggestion that tanking is beneath him or the Canadiens conveniently ignores how he made a conscious decision to forego the opportunity to improve his goaltending with the cap space he got by putting Carey Price on long-term injured reserve (from ‘’Disheartening’: Canadiens’ Price could miss entire season, GM Hughes say,’ Montreal Gazette, Aug. 19, 2022).
Hughes acquired Monahan instead (when he had already acquired Kirby Dach to fill the hole at center on the second line). Consequently going with a tandem of Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault? One a career back-up and one a third-stringer for all intents and purposes? It was an indirect way of kneecapping the Canadiens before the season even began, even if it arguably backfired based on their relatively strong play, especially Montembeault’s.
3. Question Mark in Net with Montembeault
One season later, Montembeault has theoretically earned the starter’s job at Allen’s expense. After all, he finished among the league leaders in goals saved above expected. However, on the flip side, he also put together a statistically mediocre season, looking at it all from a bird’s eye view: 16-19-3, with a 3.42 goals-against average and .901 save percentage. Those aren’t starter’s numbers, let alone a starter on a playoff team.
It stands to reason Montembeault’s numbers will improve drastically if the team in front of him does. However, there’s always a chance, a pretty good one in fact that Montembeault, a soon-to-be 27-year-old with more American Hockey League than NHL games under his belt, is a flash in the pan.
It’s hard to even characterize Montembeault as such, when he didn’t even own a .500 record. In the end, all he did was display potential. He still has to realize it, and, as alluded to earlier, especially regarding his eventual record in 2023-24, it largely depends on the team in front of him. At least on paper, it should be extremely capable. So, there’s that.
2. Another Injury-Plagued Season
At the risk of kicking a dead horse, the Canadiens suffered through a second straight injury-plagued season, to the point Nick Suzuki was the only skater to play in all 82 games. The chances are obviously in the Habs’ favor such an occurrence fails to happen again, but you never know.
Now, to their credit the Canadiens have taken steps to prevent the injuries from piling up again, by firing head athletic therapist Graham Rynbend and head physiotherapist Donald Balmforth. However, it should be pointed out neither Rynbend nor Balmforth were Tonya Hardying players.
In many ways, the move seemed like more of a way to try to change the apparent team culture of playing injured (thereby exacerbating said injuries). Ultimately, that’s on the players… and you can’t fire players. In the case of injury-plagued players like Brendan Gallagher, you’d find it hard to even trade them.
So, it remains to be seen how the injury situation plays out in 2023-24, with the generally accepted understanding injuries are never an excuse for missing the playoffs, in that how a team is managed and their organizational depth each play into its success or lack thereof. It can be a reason why the team can’t compete on a regular basis, though.
1. Atlantic Division Competition
Even if everything above goes right, the Canadiens still have to win their games. They’re in an especially tough Atlantic Division, though. There are a maximum of five spots up for grabs and it’s hard to pinpoint which of the four Atlantic playoff teams from last season will fall in the standings, if any especially when the one wild-card team, the Florida Panthers, reached the Stanley Cup Final.
Granted, that was the Canadiens back in 2021. So, it is possible the Panthers struggle. However, operating under the assumption the Panthers make it, as do the record-setting, 135-point Boston Bruins, as it’s unlikely they completely collapse entirely after the retirement of Patrice Bergeron?
That leaves the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. Even if the Lightning stumbled to the finish line, they’re still recent repeat Stanley Cup winners. All the hockey they’ve played over the last few seasons may have caught up with them in Round 1, and a relatively full offseason of rest will do wonders to offsetting any remaining fatigue.
Meanwhile, regarding the Leafs, is anyone willing to bet against them (at least in the regular season)? Especially after they’ve (finally) won a round, it looks like they’ve got the momentum (and players) to make another go of it… not to mention the motivation with Auston Matthew and William Nylander entering the last seasons of their contracts.
So, it’s quite possible the Canadiens find themselves in a battle for fifth place. And, even in such an instance, there are cases each of the three remaining teams above them are primed for playoff contention to a greater extent. Nevertheless, that shouldn’t take away from the fact the Canadiens proved themselves to be a playoff-caliber team over the first month of last season, before injuries caught up to them.
If Montembeault keeps on progressing alongside the team’s younger players, now with another year of experience under their belts, if Hughes is resolute in trying to make the playoffs… those are admittedly a lot of “ifs.” So, no one should realistically be expecting a playoff finish in 2024. However, a playoff finish wouldn’t necessarily make for a successful season. It would more so be symptomatic of one.
As an illustration, the Canadiens competing regularly every night in 2022-23 after consistently getting blown out the previous season? That made last season a success… and it stands to reason they’ll regularly compete to an even greater extent in 2023-24. That should theoretically keep the Habs the in the playoff hunt for a while… and that’s all fans should reasonably expect: a chance, however small.
