There are no two ways about it. The Montreal Canadiens got outclassed thoroughly by the Carolina Hurricanes on April 1. They may have lost by a relatively respectable 3-0 final score, but the way they were outshot 50-14 at home paints a starkly different picture. Enter your own April Fools’ Day joke here in reference to the Habs not showing up, but the fact of the matter is it’s just one game.
Granted, it was one game during a non-playoff season rife with many other losses, including seven straight at the end of December, start of January (during which the Canadiens got outscored 36-12). However, by and large, they have competed consistently from the opening whistle.
There’s little reason to believe the same won’t be true to the eventual closing buzzer on the season as a whole. In fact, there are at least three reasons to believe the same phenomenon will come to pass in 2023-24, perhaps to a greater extent, as the Habs look to potentially compete for a playoff spot:
3. Close Losses to Boston Bruins
Yes, the Hurricanes are among the league’s elite, and, at face value, it doesn’t exactly bode well for the Canadiens that they’ve lost all three of their match-ups this season. However, the Habs have also lost both of their games to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Boston Bruins, one of the most dominant teams in league history, but those individual results shine a different light on the Habs’ chances moving forward.
On Jan. 24, the Canadiens were still tied 2-2 with the Bruins midway through the third period on the strength of two Kirby Dach goals. The Bruins only pulled ahead for good late, when Patrice Bergeron scored at 17:05. David Pastrnak scored into an empty net to seal the 4-2 final score. Meanwhile, on March 23, the Canadiens similarly lost 4-2 in what might have been a more impressive effort, seeing as the Habs outshot the opposition 31-21 in the game, on the road no less.
There is admittedly one factor that plays in the Canadiens’ favor in games like these. The Bruins are arguably their biggest rival, making it easier to get up for them, all the while adding an unpredictable element to the outcome. For example, the Habs authored huge first-round playoff upsets over the Bruins in 2002, when they were the first and eighth seeds, and 2004, when they were the second and seventh.
Related: Most Impressive Canadiens Games of 2022-23 so Far
You may also argue it’s possible the Bruins simply didn’t bring their best and played down to the competition. It’s possible… for it to happen once. For them to take their longtime rivals for granted twice in a row? Logically, if the Bruins fail to show up in any of their games against the Canadiens, it’s likelier to be on April 13, when the Canadiens close out their regular season, as they’ll have little to fight for and probably won’t even be dressing their best lineup ahead of the playoffs. However, considering the Bruins have failed to bury the Canadiens twice now, they may see it as a point of pride. The Canadiens likely will too, even if just considering how they beat the Florida Panthers 10-2 to end 2021-22.
2. An Atlantic Division in Flux
It’s maybe safe to assume the Bruins represent one of the big powers in the Atlantic Division. The same may be true of the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they’re yet another historic rival that, in head-to-head match-ups at least, shouldn’t scare the Canadiens. Traditionally there’s been at least a third in the Tampa Bay Lightning and that could still be the case in 2023-24. However, they’ve undeniably taken a step back to the point many analysts see them as ripe for the plucking in Round 1… by their locked-in opponents, the Leafs… who haven’t won a series in 19 years. Let that sink in for a moment.
All that to say, the Lightning are far from playoff shoo-ins from here on out, even if due to the fatigue that’s set in from extended playoff runs over the last half-decade, plus. That’s also true of the Panthers, who won the Presidents’ Trophy last season but are suddenly on the playoff bubble and may not so much as clinch a berth this time around. So, there’s conceivably a path to playoff contention opening up for the Canadiens as we speak.
Maybe the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings are on the rise. However, the Canadiens can be too. It’s not so out of the realm of possibilities the Canadiens improve by leaps and bounds in just one season. The Habs have done it before and they’ll probably do it again, maybe even in 2023-24, especially seeing as the team with which they’ve regularly competed this season has been far from their best.
1. Greater Organizational Depth and Flexibility
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that the Canadiens are incredibly injured. They’re leading the league in man-games lost for the second straight season, and, while injuries aren’t an excuse, they are a reason behind a lack of competitiveness. So, the Habs are theoretically due to win more next season by doing nothing (unless you count getting healthy a huge undertaking, which it may very well be for this group).
However, they’re also set to shed unwanted contracts, as unrestricted free agents like Jonathan Drouin and Paul Byron presumably move on. They’re conceivably set to make defenseman Joel Edmundson trade bait this summer, further adding flexibility to general manager Kent Hughes’ offseason plans. If the idea is in fact to contend for a playoff spot next season, he needless to say has the cap space to make a few signings to help make it happen.
If on the other hand, Hughes deems it too early in his plan for this team to hit free agency hard, he need only look internally for players poised to fill holes. Prospects like Rafael Harvey-Pinard up front (an improvement over Evgeny Dadonov) and Justin Barron on defense (an improvement over Chris Wideman) seem like good bets if not locks to make the team next year, having proven themselves as arguably too good for the Laval Rocket in the American Hockey League. They’d be players who have proven themselves as being in the mix for roster spots even in spite of the injury situation.
Due for a second straight high draft pick, the Canadiens are also poised to add to their depth potentially immediately (judging by 2022 first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky’s jump right to the NHL). Since the 2023 NHL Entry Draft is seen as especially deep and top-heavy to boot, you’re looking at an elite talent, at least in principle. True, there are no guarantees regarding how quickly their next first-round pick develops, but Hughes and company undeniably find themselves in a position to plug another hole in their lineup, if not for next season then soon thereafter.
Keep in mind though, the Canadiens are already vastly improved over last season when they captured just 55 points in the standings. Now at 66 with five games to go entering Tuesday night action, they’re trending higher in spite of all the bad luck with which they’ve had to deal. Even with just a little luck the other way, you have to believe they’ll be right there at this time in 2023-24.
Maybe it’s the start of the season when fans are generally optimistic, not the end of a non-playoff campaign. However, the Canadiens have shown enough from on the ice to in the boardroom to warrant confidence in this team’s future. That future is right around the corner, technically as soon as next season.
