There is a theory about the illusion of choice. It’s where, despite all the decisions and free will in life, the result in the end is the same regardless. Hockey is a great proof of this theory, as some things appear inevitable. The Toronto Maple Leafs can make all the moves they want and change up the roster, but at the end of the day, they’ll still lose in the first round (maybe a coaching change will change that). The Carolina Hurricanes will face the New York Islanders in the first round and control the series from start to finish.
The Islanders are still on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in, but they trail the New Jersey Devils by only a few points, so they could still face the Hurricanes. The third spot in the Metropolitan Division is still up for grabs, and the same can be said about the wild card, as multiple teams in the Eastern Conference are fighting for the last two spots.
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The Hurricanes and the Washington Capitals are locked into their spots, and barring a late-season hot streak or a collapse, the Capitals will end the season with the division’s best record while the Hurricanes will finish second. Both teams could face the Islanders or the New York Rangers, but the one team they won’t want to face is the Devils.
Devils Can Slow the Series Down
The Devils are far from the juggernaut many expected them to be early in the season. They were an underwhelming group, and that was before Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Jonas Siegenthaler suffered season-ending injuries. Now, the Devils are a team stumbling into the playoffs and hoping the other teams in their division don’t go on a run and pass them.
The thing about the Devils is that they still win games with their defense and goaltending. Johnathan Kovacevic and Brenden Dillon are having great seasons on the defensive end of the ice, while Luke Hughes has taken on a bigger role in recent games and become the unit’s top two-way player (something Donnah Campbell chronicled here).
On top of that, the Devils have a goaltending tandem they can rely on to win games. Last season, the position was their weakness and this season, it’s become a strength. Jacob Markstrom is the workhorse who started the majority of the games, while Jake Allen has stepped up in recent games with some dominant performances, allowing only seven goals in his last four starts.
Winning with defense is not a blueprint for a playoff run, at least not with a non-existent offense to go along with it. However, it can give a contender fits in the first round and possibly steal a series. It makes the Devils a tough out for the Capitals or the Hurricanes, two teams with great defenses who can win low-scoring games but won’t want to for a seven-game series.
Islanders Are an Easy Team to Figure Out
The Hurricanes are well aware of how the Islanders like to play, and it’s why they’ve easily defeated them in the 2023 first round and the 2024 first round series. The Hurricanes can go toe-to-toe with them defensively and by playing the physical game, but they can also speed up the game and win with their offense. The Islanders have no answers when the games become high-scoring ones, and they won’t this season either, as they average only 2.72 goals per game.
It’s the same reason the Capitals would easily defeat the Islanders in a playoff series if the two teams met. Sure, they are the new team in the contention conversation, as they’ve been the pleasant surprise and are dominant in the Eastern Conference. They can win in multiple ways, and while the Islanders would want to make the series a defensive battle, it would still be a one-sided one.
The Islanders not only lack scoring, but they are also a one-dimensional team. The forwards are one-trick ponies, and when they are asked to pivot, they struggle to do so. Bo Horvat is proving this season that he can make a difference as a scorer and a passer, but the rest of the group hasn’t. It’s why if the Islanders get in, they’ll struggle to go on a run or pull off an upset altogether.
Rangers Have Shesterkin & Not Much Else
Igor Shesterkin is playing at a high level and proving he’s one of the elite goaltenders in the NHL. His .908 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.80 goals-against average on 1,558 shots and 11.0 goals saved above average (GSAA) have kept the team afloat despite struggles everywhere else. Outside of Shesterkin, the Rangers aren’t a good team. They’ve played 72 games, and it’s still hard to say what they do well.
Sure, the Rangers have played well against the Capitals and Hurricanes in recent years, notably defeating both teams last season in the playoffs to reach the Eastern Conference Final. The Rangers also added J.T. Miller in a blockbuster trade, and the star is playing at a point-per-game pace and, more importantly, is a playoff-proven player who can be a difference-maker in a series. However, they are a beatable team this time around, and the Capitals and Hurricanes wouldn’t mind facing them in the first round.
Why the Capitals & Hurricanes Wouldn’t Mind Facing the Devils
The Devils can win a low-scoring series and pull off an upset with great defense and goaltending leading the way. The problem is that they can’t score. They average only 2.99 goals per game, and since the Hughes injury on March 2, they’ve averaged only 2.75 goals per game.
The Capitals and Hurricanes often win with possession and controlling the puck in the offensive zone, and that’s how they’ll look to make a deep playoff run. If needed, they’ll speed up the pace and look to run up the score, knowing they can win high-scoring games, and that’s what they’ll do if they play the Devils.
Are the Devils still the team the Capitals and Hurricanes don’t want to face in the playoffs? Let us know in the comments section below!
