Even before the trade deadline had come and gone, the New Jersey Devils were still one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and the NHL. With a playoff berth looking like a safe bet, general manager Tom Fitzgerald made a big move, acquiring Timo Meier from the San Jose Sharks for a package of futures.
Meier has settled in well in New Jersey, totaling nine goals and 14 points in 20 games since the acquisition. His 20th game with the team came in their 6-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on April 11. And as Fitzgerald said at the time of the trade, it takes about 20 games for a player to get comfortable with a new team and system. How has Meier fared? Let’s take a look.
Meier Has Been as Advertised
The Devils being a quality team before the trade was evident in their five-on-five numbers, as they ranked fourth in Corsi for percentage (CF%) and second in expected goals percentage (xG%). Adding a player of Meier’s caliber should only improve their roster, and it has to this point.
In his first 20 games with the Devils, Meier has been one of their best play drivers at five-on-five. He has a 55.52 CF% and 60.06 xG%, meaning the team has controlled the quantity and quality battle when he’s been on the ice. Not only have his on-ice numbers been impressive, but his individual stats have been some of the best among Devils skaters.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Devils’ 6-2 Victory Over the Sabres
Part of the appeal of acquiring Meier wasn’t just a need to add a physical presence. At 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, he hasn’t been afraid to throw his body around in his time with the Devils. But it’s rare to find a player in today’s NHL who can play physically and score at the rate of a first-liner.
Meier can do that because he’s one of the highest-volume shooters in the NHL. During the 2021-22 season with the San Jose Sharks, he finished with 324 shots on goal in 76 games, an average of 4.26 per game. He hasn’t been quite at that level with the Devils, but he has averaged 3.45 shots on goal. His 69 shots on net since his team debut on March 5 are second only to Jack Hughes, who has 74 in that span.
The shot volume has been there, so why hasn’t Meier scored as much as he was in San Jose? Nine goals in 20 games is a 37-goal pace over 82 games, so the goal-scoring has been there, even if it may not feel like it, but he’s also had some bad luck. His individual point percentage (IPP), which measures how often a player picks up a point when he’s on the ice, is 41.18 percent with New Jersey.
Before the trade, Meier had an IPP of 69.05 percent with the Sharks. In his previous two seasons, that number was 82.81 percent and 68.97 percent. His current number is an unsustainably low rate, so I’d expect his overall scoring to pick up once his linemates start converting on more chances when he’s on the ice.
There’s plenty to like about Meier’s game by the numbers, but he’s also doing things that aren’t showing up on the scoresheet. His net-front presence was a significant factor in the Devils picking up a 5-2 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 19. He was using his frame to provide screens in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy like this:
With the Devils’ first-round playoff opponent going to be either the Florida Panthers or New York Rangers, providing screens like that in front of their netminders, especially if it’s Igor Shesterkin, will prove crucial to the team advancing past the first round.
Meier’s Different Elements
The Devils are a fast, skilled team that likes to play off the rush. But Fitzgerald knew heading into the playoffs that they would need to add a different element to the lineup. Meier’s physical presence is one of those different elements, but how he scores his goals is another.
Unfortunately, I don’t know of a website where you can isolate shot maps from team to team in a season. But to give you an idea of where Meier creates shots and chances, here’s his 2022-23 five-on-five shot map via Evolving-Hockey. As you see below, most of his looks are coming from the slot and right around the crease (as are his goals):
Players like Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier can score goals at a high level, but they’re not the types to get the dirty areas of the ice around the net. Every team needs that type of player, and that’s what Meier provides. And even though we can’t isolate a shot map, Meier has 29 high-danger chances at five-on-five since the trade, tied for second with Hischier among the team’s skaters.
Meier hasn’t just created high-danger chances at five-on-five, either. He’s done so on the power play and has converted on a few goals around the crease. One example would be his power-play tally against the Columbus Blue Jackets on April 6, which came on a sweet pass from Hughes to an open Meier right outside the blue paint.
Another example of Meier helping on the power play would be in the Devils’ 5-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on April 4 when he scored on a five-on-three from right around the blue paint again. Since the trade, the Devils have converted on 23.4 percent of their man-advantage opportunities and are now in the top half of the league on the power play for the season. So not only has Meier made a difference at five-on-five, but his added elements have also made an impact on the power play.
Optimizing Meier in the Lineup Has Been Tricky
I’ve mentioned this in my takeaways posts of Devils games in recent weeks, but at times, it feels like head coach Lindy Ruff has struggled with where to place Meier in his line combos. He’s been on the third line with some combination of Erik Haula, Jesper Boqvist and Yegor Sharangovich, depending on who’s available to play, for the last few games.
Optimizing Meier in the lineup will be crucial, with the playoffs being less than a week away. The line of Meier, Haula and Boqvist has been decent, posting a 51.25 xG% in 46 minutes together while breaking even in goals for and against (4-4). But it also feels like Meier’s least impactful games have come when he’s been on the third line.
At the same time, getting favorable matchups could have its advantages with Meier on the third line and home ice sealed for the first round of the playoffs. He’ll be going against other teams’ depth players, and as we’ve seen in his time in New Jersey, he can drive his own line. He can play off the rush, but he’ll get in on the forecheck and do the dirty work to create time and space for his teammates. Still, it wouldn’t hurt to see him get more minutes in the top six. But other than that, there aren’t many complaints about him. And it’s not like that’s something in his control, either.
The Devils didn’t acquire Meier for him to be a rental. He’s a restricted free agent this summer, so the time will come to deal with that. But in the short term, he’s been what they’ve hoped for when they traded for him. The team plays their final regular-season contest tomorrow night before getting set for their first playoff game in five years. It won’t get any easier from here on out, but with Meier, perhaps he can help make things a bit easier. And his play with the team certainly suggests that’s possible.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
