More grit. More jam. However you want to put it, the New Jersey Devils might look to add a little more toughness to their lineup up front this offseason. That would’ve meant adding a bruiser or enforcer many years ago, but that doesn’t work in 2023. Forwards have to be able to score, especially in a system like the Devils’ under head coach Lindy Ruff.
Adding a hard-to-play-against forward becomes more of a priority since there doesn’t seem to be a path to the Devils re-signing Miles Wood before July 1, making him an unrestricted free agent. One player general manager Tom Fitzgerald could target to replace him is Tampa Bay Lightning winger Ross Colton.
Colton, a New Jersey native who grew up a Devils fan, could be a cap casualty, as the Lightning only have $450,000 in cap space (without LTIR usage) entering the offseason. That could present Fitzgerald and the Devils an opportunity to take advantage and a quality depth player to the roster’s middle-six.
Colton Would Add a Different Element
The Devils have their skill players in Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt, while Timo Meier gives them a bit of both in someone who can score 35-40 goals but also throw the body around. Dawson Mercer isn’t physical like Meier, but he’s showing he can be annoying to play against while scoring 25-30 goals as a top-six winger.
Assuming the Devils get Bratt and Meier — their two main restricted free agents — signed to new deals, they might not need to acquire a big-time scorer this summer. Adding some depth to complement them lower in the lineup could be the plan, and that’s where Colton could help. He’s averaged 21 goals per 82 games in his three NHL seasons, but he’s also not afraid to throw his body around; he had 188 hits in 2022-23.
Colton has posted an expected goals percentage (xG%) above 51 percent in each of his three NHL seasons. And he’s been an efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.99 points per 60 minutes. His goal-scoring did fall off a bit in 2022-23, but that’s mostly due to his shooting percentage at full strength falling below ten percent.
Still, Colton had a solid year, and when looking at his microstats, he’d bring something different to the Devils. He still excels on the rush, ranking in the 91st percentile in shots off the rush. Even when it comes to zone entries and exits, he’s shown an ability to move the puck efficiently with possession. Ruff’s system is primarily rush-based, so he’d likely fit in with what the Devils want to do offensively.
But where Colton will add something different is on the forecheck. There’s the physical presence and ability to hit, but he is a high-end forechecker; that’s no surprise, given how the Lightning have built their roster. Colton ranked in the 88th percentile in recoveries and 77th percentile in pressures:
There are a couple of weaknesses in Colton’s game, one being he struggles defensively. The Devils like forwards with sound two-way games, so that could be an issue. The other is that he’s not a great passer by any stretch. He doesn’t create much in the offensive zone or on the rush through his passing, nor does he generate breakouts from the defensive zone by passing.
But given what else he offers — shooting, forechecking, physicality — there may be more to like about his game than there isn’t. There’s a fit for what the Devils need, and given the Lightning’s cap situation, he may not cost much to acquire.
Colton Should Be Affordable Through a Trade
Because of the Lightning’s cap situation, they may have trouble keeping Alex Killorn and Colton; the former will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1. They spent a boatload to acquire Tanner Jeannot — who’s also an RFA — at the trade deadline, so they’ll want to clear money to re-sign him this summer.
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If the Lightning decide to move Colton for cap reasons, it shouldn’t cost the Devils much to acquire him. Based on his production and the Lightning’s cap situation, he’d probably command a third- or fourth-round pick and a lower-level prospect or cheap NHL player like Jesper Boqvist. Boqvist is an RFA also but projects to land a two-year deal at around $1.5 million. The Lightning need to fill out their roster with cheaper players, and if the Devils acquire Colton, there might not be a place for Boqvist on their roster moving forward.
From the Devils’ perspective, they should have the money to re-sign Colton to a new deal. Assuming Bratt and Meier take up about $16-17 million of the $34-million-plus the Devils have in cap space, they’ll still have the money to make some modest additions. They also should be able to re-sign Erik Haula and Yegor Sharangovich (if they don’t trade him), who should come in around $3 million on new contracts.
Per Evolving-Hockey, Colton has a 29 percent chance of landing a four-year deal at a cap hit of $3.351 million. He also has a 24 percent chance of signing a three-year contract at a cap hit of $2.859 million. Either of those numbers is doable, but given the type of player he is, trying to find common ground on a three-year pact makes the most sense for the Devils.
At a $2.859 million cap hit, Colton would be more affordable than Wood as a UFA, and the Devils would be getting someone with better impacts across the board. Even through Wood’s struggles this past season, he was a regular in the lineup, so Ruff clearly values that type of player.
The Devils will have to replace Wood if he signs elsewhere in July, and Colton seems to be the perfect fit. They’d get a bottom-six forward who fits their style of play and has 20-goal upside, much like Wood before he had hip surgery a year ago. It shouldn’t cost much to acquire him in a trade, nor should re-signing him. Fitzgerald would have to clear a bit of money to make more additions, but that should be doable since the free-agent class is so weak and teams will be looking to improve their rosters through trades. Colton isn’t a no-brainer addition, but he’s certainly one that makes sense for where the Devils are after their 52-win season.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, contract projections from Evolving-Hockey