Dylan Larkin’s 10-Team List Has Only 2 Real Fits

Dylan Larkin has given the Detroit Red Wings far more room to work with. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski confirmed on Oct. 20 that the former captain has expanded his list to 10 teams, up from the original three of Florida, Minnesota, and Vegas.

The seven new names are the Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Utah Mammoth, and Washington Capitals. On paper, that looks like a real market. Once the salary cap enters the picture, only two of the 10 teams are realistic fits, and neither was on his original list.

Larkin’s Contract Shrinks the List Quickly

Dylan Larkin is in the fourth season of an 8-year, $69.6 million contract that carries an $8.7 million cap hit. Any team acquiring him has to fit that number under a $104 million ceiling, and most contenders spent their room long before October.

According to PucksandStats’ league-wide cap projections, updated Oct. 8, only one team on Larkin’s list has enough space to absorb his full cap hit without sending salary back. Another is close. The other eight are at or near the ceiling, and three of them are projected to be over it. Those figures do not include long-term injured reserve relief, which can change the math for a specific club, but they show where the market really stands.

Detroit, meanwhile, has about $16.8 million in projected space. That matters, because it means the Red Wings can take back salary in any deal without creating a problem of their own.

Hurricanes & Mammoth Are the Only Clean Fits

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes are the cleanest fit on the list. Carolina has roughly $9.3 million in projected space, enough to take on Larkin’s full $8.7 million cap hit without moving a roster player in return. That gives the Red Wings something they haven’t had since June: a partner who can build an offer entirely around what Detroit wants, rather than around what it needs to dump.

It also gives Detroit a way to keep the conversation focused on young assets and picks. A team that doesn’t need to send salary back has no reason to push veteran contracts into the package, and that is exactly the type of return a rebuilding club should be after.

Utah Mammoth

The Mammoth sit at about $4.8 million in space, meaning they would need to send back roughly $3.9 million in salary to make a deal work. That is a manageable gap. Utah also has the kind of prospect pool and draft capital that could interest Detroit, and its push to contend now makes Larkin a logical target.

There is a familiar face in Salt Lake City, too. Goaltender Sebastian Cossa, once viewed as part of Detroit’s long-term plan in net, was traded to Utah in June for the 23rd-overall pick, which the Red Wings used on forward J.P. Hurlbert. Our grades for the Cossa trade gave Detroit a B for the deal.

Larkin’s Other 8 Suitors Must Send Salary Back

The remaining eight teams can only make a Larkin trade work by moving significant salary to Detroit. Tampa Bay has about $1.9 million in space, so it would need to send back nearly $7 million. Minnesota, Colorado, Washington, and New Jersey are all within roughly $1.2 million of the ceiling.

Florida, Dallas, and Vegas are projected to be over the cap already. Vegas is the most extreme case at nearly $8.8 million over, which makes it hard to see how the Golden Knights could add an $8.7 million player without a much larger roster shakeup.

That doesn’t rule those teams out. It does change the shape of any offer. The Wild remain the most motivated suitor because of Quinn Hughes‘ contract situation, and we already explained why that gives the Red Wings real leverage in those talks. For every club in this group, though, Detroit should expect established NHL salary to be part of the return.

What the Expanded List Means for the Red Wings

The biggest change is competition. Interim general manager Shawn Horcoff spent the offseason working with a 3-team list, and according to ESPN, salary cap issues and the lack of an acceptable return kept Larkin in Detroit. Now he has one club that can bid without sending salary back, another that needs only a small adjustment, and eight more that can bid if they are willing to part with real players.

The list also removes one possibility for good. Despite Montreal Canadiens fans chanting “We Want Larkin!” at Bell Centre this month, an ESPN source said he isn’t looking for a trade to a Canadian team.

Elliotte Friedman recently raised the question of how long Detroit can afford to wait, noting the risk of an injury while the situation drags on, as covered in our latest NHL rumors on the situation. That risk is real. Even so, the Red Wings are not in a desperate spot. Larkin has five points in seven games, including two assists in a 4-3 shootout loss to Seattle on Oct. 20, and Detroit has picked up points in five straight games.

The expanded list doesn’t mean a trade is imminent. It means Horcoff finally has enough options to choose the right one, and the best place to start is with the teams that can afford to pay.