Fantasy Hockey Preview: Pacific Specific?

This is the first of a six part series that focuses on the players in a divisional format.

Part 1: Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, Dallas Stars, Phoenix Coyotes, San Jose Sharks

Part 2: Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers

Part 3: Colorado Avalanche, Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers

Part 4: Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators

Part 5: St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks

Part 6: New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins

 

Have you ever wanted to do a little “California Dreamin’”? The Pacific Division is truly a little out there and yet the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings ran wild and pillaged their way to the top prize. The other four teams are far from slouches when it comes to fantasy circles and our 10-10-5 approach is a little different given our divisional format. There is some pretty good firepower within this group of five teams.

Just because we go from 1-10 for the forwards and defensemen does not mean there were players that could crash the party. Goalies are ranked 1-5 because honestly, in the Pacific there are no real goalie battles. When the numbers roll out, one will see how sometimes scientific analysis just does not quite cut it here. Points, including goals and assists, were not just the bottom line but intangibles and circumstances had at least a little to do in the mix.

The first batch of players involves the Forwards. When looking at the Forwards, some are multi positional but most of them are not. There was a look to see if potential spikes or dips existed first and foremost. Early forecasting tools do not take into account the possibility of a lockout. For now, we will not go down that road but revisions will be in the works. Again, here are our Top 10 Forwards from the Pacific Division. Of course, this assumes there will be an 82 game season.

Top Ten Forwards*:

1. A. Kopitar LAK   35    51    86    24    8    21:25    225    Down
2. C, Perry    ANA    42    43    85    29    10    21:32    276    Up
3. J. Benn    DAL    31    52    83    17    7    20:05    240    Up
4. R. Getzlaf    ANA    25    58    83    23    4    21:00    150    Up
5. L. Couture    SJ    35    45    80    20    6    20:05    260    Up
6. B. Ryan    ANA    30    36    75    22    5    19:45    215    Up
7. J. Pavelski    SJ    32    40    72    19    7    20:00    262    Down
8. L. Eriksson    DAL    29    43    72    20    5    19:50    195    Up
9. J. Thornton    SJ    21    50    71    28    4    20:10    140    Down
10. T. Selanne    ANA    30    38    68    26    7    18:00    210    Down

* = Our numbers here go in order (Goals-Assists-Points-PP Points-GWG-ATOI-SOG and Up/Down)

There are going to be a lot of questions here. First off, what the heck does the Up/Down mean? This is simple. We took a look and sometimes a sneak look at predictors and indicators then gave an honest description of where the player actually lands compared to expectations. Loui Eriksson and Jamie Benn are going to be up simply because of Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney. The big benefactor will be Benn as he gets to learn from two of the best 40 year olds anyone could ask.

The next will be why Anze Kopitar is considered down? This does not mean he is going to have a down year by any stretch but for some that are predicting a 90-100 point season, they may want to consider that Kopitar always has a bad stretch and that is just the way it goes. He is going to have a great year but I think he only plays 73 or 74 games. His points per game is going to be around 1.15 though so keep that in mind.  Also, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau for that matter will be passing the torch to Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture, who expect to benefit nicely going forward. San Jose had to do this because Couture is not only the best player on the team but is a potential perennial 40-40 guy. Thornton only hangs on this list because he still is a force on the man advantage and those passes still turn into goals.

Shifting to the defense in the Pacific, we find that once again there are the usual suspects along with Drew Doughty, who now has a Stanley Cup along with a lot of money in his back pocket. He is likely the cream of the crop when it comes to defensemen in this division but value still exists in the top ten and from several different directions. Is this the year Cam Fowler and Luca Sbisa make the jump? Does Dan Boyle still have it for San Jose? There are an awful lot of questions to answer from this division and the answers are not quite so crystal clear.

Undaunted, we move on to our top ten defensemen for this fantasy season from the Pacific Division. No one is really sure if there will be a full season. Once again, these are all projections based on a full 82 game docket. Again my criteria includes intangibles so there may be some disagreements. Enjoy.

Top Ten Defensemen*:

1. D. Doughty    LAK    17    37    54    20    4    25:05    180    Up
2. O.E. Larsson    PHX    20    32    52    19    5    23:50    195    Up
3. K. Yandle    PHX    10    40    50    13    2    23:00    180    Down
4. S. Voynov    LAK    15    31    46    13    3    21:00    125    Up
5. B. Burns    SJ    13    32    45    17    3    23:55    210    Up
6. C. Fowler    ANA    10    34    44    16    2    24:00    150    Up
7. D. Boyle    SJ    9    31    40    15    2    24:50    220    Down
8. A. Goligoski    DAL    9    29    38    12    2    23:40    160     Up
9. L. Sbisa    ANA    8    27    35    9    1    19:45    125    Up
10. S. Souray    ANA    10    20    30    12    2    19:55    180    Up

* = Our numbers here go in order (Goals-Assists-Points-PP Points-GWG-ATOI-SOG and Up/Down)

 

These are not easy lists when one looks at it, by division. Oliver-Ekman Larsson was almost ranked above Drew Doughty of the Kings actually but not just yet. Why? Simply because Doughty has those intangibles from winning the title last year. That will serve him well as his game continues to round out. Who has the bigger upside? That would be Larsson of course. People should not be shocked at seeing a 20 goal campaign out of the youngster from Phoenix. It is blatantly obvious that he has more upside than his teammate, Keith Yandle, who is number three on this list. Yandle is being pegged for a bigger bounce back season but with the departure of Ray Whitney and the usual uncertainty in Phoenix, hedging is prudent here.

The list has intriguing value with Slava Voynov at number four. There are quite a few people who think that Voynov has close to Doughty upside and while that may not pan out right away, it is something to keep an eye on. His ice time will keep rising as the season goes on, much like last year. The late season production should intrigue many Voynov owners. As for Anaheim, do not sleep on Cam Fowler and especially Luca Sbisa. People forget that Sbisa is still only 22 and has a lot of time to grow. This is going to be a very nice fantasy duo or at least a nice surprise.

Brent Burns will be the offensive blue line force but the scoring will shift more to the forwards in San Jose. Alex Goligoski may be pegged down a bit much here but with injury concerns and chemistry fears in Dallas, it is expected. The wildcard in all of this was Sheldon Souray. If he can stay healthy, Souray can be an excellent mentor while still contributing on the power play. The Pacific is going to be really nice to watch as far as growth.

Last but not least there are the goaltenders and a point of some controversy in this division because of certain goaltending situations. Whether there are contract years or new talent, the net will be an uneasy place in more ways than one, even for incumbents. The key in our list was simply to do a Top Five for the guys that are the last line of defense. Goaltenders in fantasy hockey are truly like gold. If you have a number one that can be counted on, then there is a footing in your league that will be gained. Are you ready for the five goalies on our list? Hopefully you are.

Top Five Goalies*:

1. J. Quick    LAK    70    40    20    10    8    2.28    .922    Down
2. M. Smith    PHX    66    33    25    8    5    2.42    .920    Down
3. K. Lehtonen    DAL    63    31    25    7    4    2.45    .919    Down
4. A. Niemi    SJ    53    25    22    6    3    2.52    .907    Down
5. J. Hiller    ANA    60    29    22    9    6    2.44    .916    Up

*= (Our numbers go in order. Games played, wins, losses, OT losses, shutouts, Goals Against Average, save perentage, and up/down)

People are going to ask how Jonathan Quick and Mike Smith could both be down. Why? This is simple. They played at such a high level last year that their numbers have to inevitable come back to Earth a bit. Their expectations are higher than almost any other goalie in the league not named Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist won the Vezina Trophy last year but keep an eye on a potential lockout because goalie numbers were just not that good after the two previous work stoppages. Kari Lehtonen is in a tough spot with an aging D and an offense that will need to score more goals. Antti Niemi may ultimately wind up losing his job to Thomas Greiss at some point in the year. Then there is Jonas Hiller, who could not play any worse than last year but faces stiff competition from Viktor Fasth. Both goalies are 30 but Fasth is going to turn some heads in Anaheim.

Los Angeles, in theory, seems to have the most talent from a hockey and fantasy hockey point of view but remember these are only projections. Next up will be the Southeast Division and a potential changing of the guard. Stay tuned fantasy hockey fans because much more is yet to come.