I’ll be the first to admit when I’m wrong. Matvei Michkov has not been able to win over head coach John Tortorella despite objectively being one of the best players on the Philadelphia Flyers this season. I originally believed the likelihood of a player-coach clash was low. Time and time again, though, the 20-year-old rookie has been dealt a bad hand. However, he’s making the most of it.
Michkov Playing Well Relative to Teammates; Tortorella Isn’t a Fan
At this point, everyone is aware that Michkov isn’t getting a lot of ice time—just 15:56 per night. Some have defended it, saying it’s deserved, but I am not one of those people. To explain why, let’s take a look at what the San Jose Sharks are doing with Will Smith.
Michkov and Smith are similar in a few ways. For one, they were top draft choices in 2023. Both spent their 2023-24 campaigns away from the NHL, too, and neither had a large workload. Their Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) seasons were both between 40 and 50 contests, a step below the 82-game Goliath that is the NHL.
With this in mind, their usage may come as a surprise, especially considering one is vastly outplaying the other. If you are a believer in expected goals, Michkov is demoralizing his foes at 5-on-5. He’s scoring points at a rate of 1.09 standard deviations above the Flyers’ forward average, too. Smith is being outplayed at 5-on-5, even relative to his teammates, and is only scoring points at a rate of 0.32 standard deviations above the Sharks’ forward average. So then, why is he playing more?
I didn’t include it in the graphic because I felt my point was being made, but Michkov’s on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5 is actually holding him back points-wise. His puck luck has largely been subpar, creating the illusion that he’s heavily regressing and is fatigued. But that’s not the case. He is 1.33 standard deviations below the Flyers’ forward average in the metric this season, while Smith is 0.81 standard deviations above the Sharks’. Even that discrepancy doesn’t make up for the gap in performance here—Michkov is simply the better hockey player, at least right now.
Getting back to the “fatigue” point, I’ve seen that a lot. That Michkov is playing gassed right now, so his usage has been cooled as a result. This would make sense if it were true, but statistically, it’s not.
Among the 241 forwards with 200 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time since Dec. 29, Michkov ranks fifth in expected goals per 60 (3.74) and seventh in expected goal share (62.29%). It is impossible to have an expected goal share of 62.29% over a month-and-a-half span and simultaneously be tired from start to finish. Tortorella calls it a “mental tiredness”, which is more reasonable, but wouldn’t limited ice time make the problem worse? Fewer opportunities can lead to more second-guessing.
The reality is that, recently, Michkov has been one of the best drivers of 5-on-5 offense. The scoring isn’t there due to the on-ice shooting percentage factor I mentioned earlier, but that doesn’t mean the scoring chances aren’t happening. Tortorella doesn’t see it that way, though, because the kid isn’t playing. Every ounce of public data we have says Michkov should see his usage soar, but it’s been the opposite.
Why Doesn’t Michkov Play with Konecny?
Oh, you thought we were done? Not yet.
This season, four 2023 draftees are scoring at least 1.50 points per 60 minutes of ice time: Connor Bedard (2.59), Michkov (2.41), Adam Fantilli (1.98), and Smith (1.93). That’s quite a list! Let’s take a deeper dive.
Aside from himself, Bedard’s teammate with the most points is Teuvo Teravainen (36). Michkov’s is Travis Konecny (58). Fantilli’s is defenseman Zach Werenski (57), who has played at a Norris Trophy level this season. Finally, Smith’s is Mikael Granlund (45), who recently departed for the Dallas Stars. Now, the question I want to examine is, what percentage of the 2023 draftees’ ice time is being spent with these players?
At 5-on-5, here are the numbers:
- Fantilli with Werenski: 42.12%
- Smith with Granlund: 28.71%
- Bedard with Teravainen: 23.04%
- Michkov with Konecny: 18.43%
Unfortunately, Michkov finds himself as an outlier in the wrong direction. In my eyes, the best way to maximize Konecny’s impact while he’s still in his prime is to have him be sort of a safety blanket for Michkov. A veteran presence to lean on. Instead, the kid has been all on his own.
Anthony Richard, who has been an American Hockey League (AHL) staple since 2015-16 with 38 NHL contests under his belt, has spent 33.93% of his 5-on-5 ice time by Michkov’s side. Does that put it in perspective a bit? With all due respect to a player who has been through the gauntlet, that just seems backward.
It’s been a rookie campaign of adversity for Michkov. That’s been the story of his life.
Michkov Will Dominate Once He’s Free
I’m not advocating for one of the most accomplished coaches in NHL history to lose his job. That’d be childish. But I don’t think Tortorella will be behind the bench next season. At 66 years old and with the Flyers hinting at an aggressive 2025 offseason, running it back just wouldn’t make much sense. He’s served his purpose—keeping the team out of the basement and establishing a culture.
This makes me hopeful for Michkov’s 2025-26 campaign. With talented teammates coming, the natural progression of a player his age, and a coach who may let him run wild, something special could be on the horizon. Like, he might go ahead and become a superstar—that’s a very real possibility.
Related: Philadelphia Flyers’ Matvei Michkov Could Be a Prolific Producer in 2025-26
Not if, but when Michkov becomes a superstar, the Flyers will start playing truly competitive hockey again. They haven’t hosted a second-round playoff game in 12 years, eight months, and 29 days. Perhaps just like you, I’ve been there the entire way—it hasn’t been a fun sixth-of-a-lifetime to be a Philadelphia hockey fan. But this is a player who will change that someday, and I suspect it won’t be long until he does. Michkov will dominate once he’s free.
While the Flyers’ offseason plans are anyone’s guess, there’s a sense that things could be looking up soon. That will be led by Michkov, the team’s young franchise star who has dealt with adversity throughout his rookie campaign. We may agree to disagree on whether or not he’s being treated fairly, but the sky’s undeniably the limit for his future.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
