We’re less than a month away from the 2024-25 season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning will be back in action with a new dynamic to the roster. The team added and subtracted at forward and defense this offseason. Players like Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Mikhail Sergachev, and J.J. Moser were involved in transactions.
Related: Lightning’s Hedman Talks Stamkos Departure & Captain Potential
With all the changes, let’s focus on some critical pieces heading into the season. We will review their performance from last season, their role for the upcoming season, and expectations for them. Today, we will cover one of the X-factors on the back end for the Lightning this season in Darren Raddysh.
Recapping Raddysh’s 2023-24 Campaign
Following a solid rookie season, the late bloomer notched six goals and 27 assists for 33 points in 82 games. Raddysh started the season on the third pairing alongside Sergachev, but the two struggled together. He also spent minutes on the third defensive pairing with Calvin de Haan, but he was well above that role about halfway through the season. Ultimately, he became Victor Hedman’s perfect partner. Hedman started the season with his part-time partner from 2022-23, Nick Perbix, but the duo struggled because Perbix had a down season.
Raddysh flourished in a defensive role alongside the veteran Hedman. He was one of two Lightning defenders to finish with an on-ice expected goals percentage (xGF%) above 50% at 5-on-5 (via NaturalStatTrick). Furthermore, he posted solid results against “elite” competition, controlling 49.8% of the on-ice Corsi share (CF%) in those 420 difficult minutes (via PuckIQ). Hedman’s on-ice Corsi for percentage (CF%) dropped four percent against the elite competition without Raddysh on the ice in roughly 258 minutes. Meanwhile, Raddysh’s on-ice CF% jumped above the 50% threshold in 172 minutes without Hedman.
Raddysh worked well with Hedman due to his ability to defend the rush. While Hedman jumped in the play and took risks offensively to generate high-danger chances, Raddysh sat back as a safety net. Raddysh exceeded the league mean (50th percentile) in zone entry defense denials per 60 (via AllThreeZones). Moreover, he thrived on Tampa Bay’s sound breakout plays, ranking above the 68th percentile in zone exits with possession per 60 amongst defensemen. For a guy who looked like a career American Hockey League (AHL) player a couple of seasons ago, the Lightning struck gold with Raddysh on their blue line.
Raddysh’s Role for the 2024-25 Season
With these unique tools and the ability to quarterback the second powerplay unit, the plan is for Raddysh to start the season with Hedman again on the first defensive pairing. Luckily, by re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh, the Lightning can throw him and his partner Erik Cernak out against the opponent’s top-six forwards, giving Hedman and Raddysh more free rein to play to their strengths offensively.
Raddysh might see a slight decrease in his time-on-ice this season as McDonagh and Cernak operate together again. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has a stellar bottom pairing with Moser and Perbix, possibly one of the best third pairings in the NHL. Regardless, the Lightning will have multiple candidates to pair with Hedman if Raddysh goes into a sophomore slump similar to Perbix last season. They can bump Moser up to the top of the lineup or give Perbix another try with Hedman. Now, what are reasonable expectations for Raddysh this season?
Expectations for 2024-25 Season
With the structure of the powerplay evolving, Raddysh might get more opportunities with the second powerplay unit this season. A time-on-ice boost on the special teams units may raise his point totals. We wouldn’t be shocked to see Raddysh around the 40-point mark if pucks bounce his way this season.
Raddysh is one of those cost-effective late bloomers that Tampa Bay finds through its organizational depth. Despite being a 26-year-old rookie, the blueliner has become a valuable option to the back end. Anywhere in the five to 10 goal and 30 to 40-point range are reasonable point projections for Raddysh in his sophomore season.
