Likeliest Canadiens Candidates to Regress in 2026-27

Few if any people had the Montreal Canadiens reaching the Eastern Conference Final on the strength of 106 points in the standings on their bingo card for this past season. Call it a pleasant surprise, but nevertheless one in line with a trend they established since bottoming out with a last-place finish in 2022.

Every subsequent season since then, the rebuilding Canadiens, who were the youngest team in the NHL to start last season, have improved in the standings. So, the success they enjoyed was at least a logical next step in their progression as a team on the undeniable rise.

Any critics who act as though they came out of nowhere are only fooling themselves and will continue to play the role of fools the longer they refuse to acknowledge what’s plain as day: The Canadiens have entered their window to contend for the Stanley Cup. And, with that, it may be somewhat foolish to bet against them… but, if one absolutely must (say, if you’re a Toronto Maple Leafs fan), these, the likeliest candidates to regress in 2026-27 are the ones to bet against specifically:

Cole Caufield

Add an asterisk beside Cole Caufield’s name, because, as the 25-year-old enters his prime, having just hit point-per-game territory for the first time in his career with 88 on the season, he’s just getting started in some respects. That having been said, after he became the first Canadiens player to score 50 goals (51) since 1990 (Stephane Richer), it will be hard for him to replicate that level of success.

It’s always difficult to hit 50 goals, based on the historical accuracy of that last sentence. If you need further proof to that effect, Caufield trailed only Nathan MacKinnon (53) of the Colorado Avalanche in that department. They were the only two to score 50 this season, and MacKinnon, a perennial Hart Memorial Trophy candidate, had only reached the highwater mark once before in his 13 professional seasons (2023-24). Based on Caufield’s unsustainably high 19.8% shooting percentage, when he has one of 14.2% in his career, he’s more so a candidate to regress here.

Mike Matheson

Defenseman Mike Matheson is coming off something of a rebound season after scoring seven goals and 37 points. In 2024-25, he scored six goals and 31 points after hitting a career-high 62 the previous season. Call it the Lane Hutson effect. As the sophomore defenseman has established himself as the team’s premier offensive blue-liner, there’s less ice time in the offensive zone to go around on the back end, especially with the acquisition of Noah Dobson last summer.

So, Matheson, fresh off a $30 million, five-year extension that comes into effect next season, faced having to reinvent himself as a shutdown defenseman instead. He should be commended for doing so, and was with a Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy nomination. Results were however mixed. Not only did Matheson not have any business winning that award, which recognizes the player who best exemplifies qualities like perseverance (and obviously didn’t), but the penalty kill, which he was charged with managing game in, game out (with a co-league-leading 3:56 time on ice each contest), ended up with a mediocre 78.1% success rate.

Full voting table for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, won by Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog. #GoAvsGo #NHLAwards

Link to all ballots from @thePHWA: https://t.co/sW2vfFIfJd pic.twitter.com/VfSTZQnnGk

— NHL News (@PuckReportNHL) June 9, 2026

That’s not bad per se. However, when it takes away from Matheson’s clear strength as a puck-carrying and moving defenseman, it’s something that should be reconsidered. Chances are it won’t be though, and the now 32-year-old’s offensive production will continue to suffer as time goes on, with him scoring just four points over his last 18 games of the season.

Oliver Kapanen

Life certainly isn’t fair. In a just world, rookie-forward Oliver Kapanen, who scored a third-ranked 22 goals in an overwhelmingly successful first full NHL season, deserves more recognition for his accomplishments and respect in general. In reality, he was effectively sat in the playoffs as the warts in his game became apparent (or hit a wall as a rookie, according to the official narrative). Whatever the case may be, amid a constant barrage of reports that the Canadiens will look for a No. 2 centre this offseason to play with Ivan Demidov, who was seen as the primary driver of Kapanen’s success on the second line, the latter will probably slide down the lineup.

I'd be worried if the model said Kapanen was driving his line… He's playing his role well enough right now, finishing and filling in blanks. His results away from Demidov are catastrophic, and I don't know that his 22.5% sh % with Demidov is refelctive of his true talent. https://t.co/eYdysLWZX6 pic.twitter.com/0BIaEAKOqA

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 15, 2026

To be clear, Kapanen isn’t a bad player, and, to his credit, when the Canadiens were without someone to play the position in question, he emerged as the best option over most of last season, which, again, was a huge success from an organizational perspective. It’s not like anyone can step into that role and have the season he did, because G-d knows the Habs have tried. As the rebuild takes on a new dimension though, the Habs can’t be satisfied with the status quo as they look to strengthen their lineup from outside sources more and more. That means replacing Kapanen with someone who represents more of a legitimate, long-term solution.

It’s a question of whether Kapanen goes the other way in any such hypothetical trade. If he does and is put in a position to succeed, he definitely has the tools to build on his 2025-26. If he stays put, he’ll logically end up a victim of circumstance and drop down the lineup, which would negatively impact his production, but certainly bode well for the team’s chances to continue to improve overall. Playing someone like Kapanen as a bottom-six forward is a luxury only contending teams typically have. That’s the only objective way to look at it.