Maple Leafs News & Rumours: McKenna, Matthews & Great Expectations

The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into a season with two very different questions surrounding two very important players. Gavin McKenna is about to begin his NHL career with enormous expectations attached to being the first overall pick, while Auston Matthews is entering a season in which there may be more scrutiny on him than at any point since he arrived in Toronto.

For McKenna, the question is how quickly he can adjust to the NHL and what kind of production would represent a successful rookie season. For Matthews, it’s whether he can get back to being the dominant offensive player Toronto needs after a disappointing season by his standards.

What Should the Maple Leafs Expect From McKenna as a Rookie?

Now that Gavin McKenna is a Maple Leaf, the obvious question is what we should expect from him in his first NHL season. It’s tempting to look at the fact that he was the first overall pick and immediately start thinking about a huge rookie season.

But recent history suggests that somewhere around 50 to 65 points would be a very respectable target. Macklin Celebrini had 63 points as a rookie, Connor Bedard had 61, while Auston Matthews put up 69 points in his first season with the Maple Leafs. Nathan MacKinnon also had 63 points as a rookie, while Mitch Marner, who arrived in Toronto alongside Matthews, had 61.

For McKenna, I think the number to watch might be 50 points. If he gets there, the team should be pretty happy with what they’ve seen from their young star. That doesn’t mean 50 points is some sort of ceiling. McKenna’s talent suggests he could eventually become a much more productive offensive player. But there is a big difference between dominating university hockey and producing consistently against NHL players every night. There will be adjustments, tough matchups and nights when the game moves faster than he’s used to.

Of course, there is always the temptation to compare a first overall pick with the greatest rookie seasons in NHL history. Seven players have recorded 100 points in their first NHL seasons: Teemu Selanne, Peter Stastny, Alex Ovechkin, Dale Hawerchuk, Sidney Crosby, Joe Juneau and Mario Lemieux.

That’s an impressive list, but it isn’t a particularly useful standard for McKenna. The Leafs don’t need him to get 100 points as a rookie. They need him to learn, contribute, and show that the player they drafted can eventually become one of the cornerstones of the franchise.

Auston Matthews Has a Lot to Prove in the Upcoming Season

Mats Sundin arrived in Toronto as a first overall pick and went on to produce at a Hall of Fame level, averaging 1.06 points per game during his 13 seasons with the Maple Leafs. Matthews, another first overall pick, is currently scoring at a 1.13 points-per-game pace in his Toronto career. Matthews has played 292 fewer games as a Maple Leafs player than Sundin did, yet he has already passed Sundin in career goals with the franchise. Those numbers put Matthews in some pretty impressive company.

But last season was a different story. Matthews posted career lows in goals, points and points per game, which makes the coming season a particularly important one for the Leafs captain. He’s now entering the next stage of his career, and there will be plenty of attention on whether he can get back to the offensive level we’ve come to expect from him. The team doesn’t necessarily need Matthews to prove he’s an elite NHL player, but they do need their captain to look more like the Matthews we’ve seen at his best.

There’s another interesting wrinkle this season, too. Matthews will be playing under Sundin, who is now back with the organization in an advisory role. For a player who has spent much of his Toronto career being compared with Sundin, having the former captain around could make this season particularly interesting. Matthews has already established himself as one of the great goal-scorers in Maple Leafs history. Now he has another opportunity to show that his best hockey may still be ahead of him.

What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?

The expectations surrounding McKenna and Matthews are obviously very different, but both will be central to the Maple Leafs’ season. McKenna represents the future and the excitement that comes with adding a first overall pick, while Matthews represents the present and the responsibility that comes with being the captain and one of the franchise’s established stars.

For McKenna, patience will be important. A 50-point rookie season would be an excellent beginning, particularly if his game continues to improve as the season progresses. For Matthews, there is less patience available because Toronto already knows what he can do. After a down season, the Leafs need him to get back to being one of the league’s most dangerous offensive players.