It’s been one of the biggest headlines of the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs — what will happen with Mitch Marner? Reports have swirled all season long on his desire to remain with the Maple Leafs following the conclusion of his current contract, while other reports have noted the possibility of Marner testing free agency.
In a recent report from TSN’s Darren Dreger, the analyst stated that it seems more likely that Marner could test free agency this summer on the heels of what is shaping up to be a career-year for the 27-year-old.
It’s also noted that Maple Leafs’ general manager, Brad Treliving, isn’t bound by the rules of Marner’s agent Darren Ferris who has historically taken top free agents to the market to ensure full value. However, Treliving could put pressure on either the player or the agent and could directly speak to Marner to gain more understanding of his intentions heading into the offseason.
With that said, Marner’s future is up in the air and with every passing day, the expectation that he is going to hit free agency becomes more of a reality for Leafs Nation.
Marner’s Desire to Stay Could Influence Negotiations
Now, if nothing else, Marner has continuously shared his desire to remain with the Maple Leafs long-term. After all, he’s from the Toronto area and with the recent news that he and his wife are expecting a child, that could influence in decision.
That said, it’s still going to come down to Marner’s agent, Ferris. With the increase cap over the next few seasons and the overall regular season production that Marner has had with he Maple Leafs, chances are he’s going to be interested in a annual average value (AAV) in a range between William Nylander’s $11.5 million and Auston Matthews’ $13.25 million.
Related: Johnston Provides Update on Marner’s Future With Maple Leafs
While Morgan Rielly was the first real hometown discount we’ve seen with the Maple Leafs in recent memory, Marner’s desire to stay could help Treliving and Marner get a deal done for the right price. Would it be a hometown discount? The likelihood of that happening is small, but it could knock a half a million to a million off his annual AAV on this upcoming contract.
Marner’s Production Leads Negotiations in a Different Direction
On the other side of the argument, Marner’s production over the past five season would suggest he’s one of the top Maple Leafs and deserves to be paid as such.
Since the start of the 2020-21 regular season, Marner has 129 goals and 421 points in 333 regular season games. He leads all Maple Leafs players in points and sits fourth on the team in goals over that span.
Over that same timeline, Marner is sixth league-wide in points behind only Connor McDavid (586), Leon Draisaitl (515), Nathan MacKinnon (494), Mikko Rantanen (434) and Artemi Panarin (425). At the moment, he’s the 12th highest paid player in the NHL in 2024-25 based on AAV.
Related: Mitch Marner Is Bringing Back a Winning Mentality to Maple Leafs
While Matthews tends to be the goal scorer for the Maple Leafs, Marner is the main set-up guy and could command a similar number to the newest captain of the team. But with a $10.903-million AAV this season, it’s not out of the question that Marner will be looking for more than a $1.1-million raise — therefore $12 million per season isn’t out of the question.
What Happens if Marner Leaves?
Like any NHL general manager, Treliving surely has a contingency plan if Marner does go to free agency. That plan could unfold ahead of this trade deadline if an extension doesn’t become somewhat of a reality for Marner and the Maple Leafs.
Reports have swirled that the Maple Leafs could have interest in players like Brayden Schenn and Mikko Rantanen leading up to the deadline. And while both will come at a cost, Rantanen will surely command more.
However, Rantanen brings a similar issue as Marner in that he’s due for a pay increase and it will be in the same range as what Marner could command on the open market. So, contingency plan or not, the Maple Leafs might be better off finding a way to lock in Marner on a long-term deal that could reduce the AAV.
Now, if he decides to go to market and finds a home elsewhere to kick off the 2025-26 season, Marner would certainly be looking at a major pay day. If he decides to follow his self-proclaimed desires, he may see a smaller pay raise, but with the chance to remain with his childhood team long-term.
One thing’s for sure, it’s looking more and more like we could see a free agent Marner come July 1.
