NHL Draft War Room: Tampa Bay Lightning

by Eldon MacDonald

Potential Tampa Bay Lightning Picks

The purpose of this article is to give readers a feel for what the Tampa Bay Lightning might be looking for in the upcoming 2013 NHL Draft in New Jersey and to provide some idea as to who may be available and picked with each draft selection. To give the reader a fairly wide range of information, we have provided the following:

• Major Needs
• Likely Draft Positions and Potential Picks
• The Major Team Decision Makers
• The Big Club – Current Roster
• Top 10 Prospects
• The Last Three Drafts

Join the #TBLightning Girls & @ThunderBugTBL for an #NHLDraft Watch Party on Sunday, June 30th @Champps! Details: http://t.co/EdacQrcIPz

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 18, 2013

Other Posts in This Series (THW’s War Room Final Rankings)

• Round 1 – Prospects ranked 1 to 30
• Round 2 – Prospects ranked 31 to 60
• Round 3 – Prospects ranked 61 to 90
• Round 4 – Prospects ranked 91 to 120

You can use these posts to get more information on a player ranked 1 to 120 including the following on most prospects:

• Nicknames
• Audio
• Video
• Quotes
• Twitter
• Stats

Major Needs

1 – Replacement for Martin St.Louis – No, Martin is not out of the picture yet but you want someone else in place when he finally slows down. It usually takes even a high-end  draftee two to three years to be ready to take over. You don’t want to keep Steven Stamkos waiting.

2 – Shutdown defenseman with grit – Other than the occasional big hit from Radko Gudas, it is pretty tame on the back end.

3 –Grit on the front-end – Yes, TampaBay has offense but they need some sandpaper up front to make the offense more effective at even strength.

4 – Best player available – Best player available is always a good pick. However, when there are many players of similar value, it is usually the one who has the qualities your team values the most that comes out on top.

Likely Draft Positions and Potential Picks

“We know we’re getting a good player at the top of the draft. We think there are 5 elite guys & we’re going to get one of them.” -Al Murray

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 11, 2013

Round 1; pick 3 (The numbers in brackets are my rankings)

• Preference 1 – Jonathan Drouin (#3)
• Preference 2 – Valeri Nichushkin (#5)
• Preference 3 – Aleksander Barkov (#4)

Since Jones and MacKinnon are likely gone to Colorado and Florida, TampaBay is likely stuck with the perfect pick for them even if the other two were available. Sure Stevie Y likes his Russians and will likely consider Valeri Nichushkin, it is still inconceivable to me that he will bypass Jonathan Drouin and the 50, 60, 70 goals a year that he could set up Steven Stamkos for over the next 10 to 15 years.

2013 NHL Draft: Seth Jones may be available to Lightning after all http://t.co/SEHzC3xOvc

— Raw Charge (@RawCharge) June 19, 2013

Watch Now: #TBLightning scouts preview the top 5 players available in this year's #NHLDraft [VIDEO] http://t.co/VQsn9evE5K

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 18, 2013

Round 2: Pick 33 – Historical success rate = 33%

• Preference 1 – JT Compher(#38)
• Preference 2 – Dillon Heatherington (#43)
• Preference 3 – Ian McCoshen (#36)

Potentially available starting at 27 and ending at 38 are: Madison Bowey, Mirco Mueller, Chris Bigras, Morgan Klimchuk, Robert Hagg, Shea Theodore, Zach Fucale, Ian McCoshen, Justin Bailey and JT Compher – also Dillon Heatherington at 43. There is quite a bit of talent in this group and a team would be lucky with any one of them. However, JT Compher, a small but gritty center, or Dillon Heatherington, a 6’4 maybe 6’5 hard to play against d-man, would be my first choices for Tampa Bay in this group.

Name to watch for No. 33: MT @Jerome_Berube: NHL draft tracker: William Carrier | Buzzing The Net – Yahoo! Sports http://t.co/sZYZTqqKXE

— Bolt Prospects (@BoltProspects) June 18, 2013

Round 5: Pick 124 – Historical success rate = 11%

• Preference 1 – Ben Harper(#129)
• Preference 2 – Carter Verhaeghe(#121)
• Preference 3 – Tyler Lewington (#122)

Potentially available starting at 121 and ending at 129 are: Carter Verhaeghe, Tyler Lewington, Alexandre Coulombe, Marcus Högberg, Connor Rankin, Cole Cassels, Spencer Jensen, Luke Johnson and Ben Harpur.  At 124, you have a one in ten chance of hitting oil. Personally, at this stage I would go for the gusher and select the 6’5 Ben Harpur. Carter Verhaeghe, however, is a safer choice and he will get big time minutes next year in Niagara Falls with Ryan Strome gone – played very good at times in the playoffs this year.

Round 6: Pick 154 – Historical success rate = 9%

Round 7: Pick 184 – Historical success rate = 10%

Round 7: Pick 186 – Historical success rate = 10%

• Me 90 – NHL 156 – Matt Murphy
• Me 97 – NHL 211 – Peter Trainor (3^rd time available)
• Me 109 – NHL NR – Jesse Lees
• Me 114 – NHL 230 – Miro Aaltonen (3^rd time available)
• Me 119 – NHL >290 – Markus Søberg
• Me 124 – NHL 200 – Marcus Högberg
• Me 125 – NHL 165 – Cole Cassels
• Me 131 – NHL 175 – Steven Harpur
• Me unranked – NHL Unranked – Albert Yarullin (3^rd time available)
• Me unranked – NHL Unranked – Mitchell Theoret (re-entry prospect)

It is virtually impossible to tell who might be available from 154 on  so what I did was list those personnel who I have ranked in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds which the NHL has ranked greater than 154that still have a decent chance of still being available. As this is as good time as any to make sure you take the best player available, I have listed the prospects in ranking order. I have also added Albert Yarullin, Nikita Nesterov’s(148 – 2011) usual defense partner on Russian international teams, who has a big shot on the power play and Mitchell Theoret (6’2, 212) who looked very good for Barrie in the OHL playoffs.

The Major Team Decision Makers

1 – General Manager: Steve Yzerman

2 – Head Scout: Al Murray

3 – Coach: Jon Cooper

The Big Club – Current Roster

No.	Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
1	Ryan Malone	Steven Stamkos	Martin St. Louis
2	Benoit Pouliot	Vincent Lecavalier	Teddy Purcell
3	Alex Killorn	Nate Thompson	Brett Connolly
4	Richard Panik	Tom Pyatt	BJ Crombeen
5	Pierre-Cedric Labrie	Dana Tyrell
	Prospect	Prospect	Prospect
1	Nikita Kucherov	Vladislav Namestnikov	Brian Hart
2		Tyler Johnson

 

No.	Defense	Defense	Goal
1	MattiasOhlund	Victor Hedman	Ben Bishop
2	Eric Brewer	Sami Salo	Anders Lindback
3	Keith Aulie	Matthew Carle	Mathieu Garon
4		RadkoGudas
	Prospect	Prospect	Prospect
1	Nikita Nesterov	Slater Koekkoek	Andrei Vasilevsky
2	Mark Barberio	Dylan Blujus	Jaroslav Janus

Top 10 Prospects

1 – 2011 – 058 – Nikita Kucherov

2 – 2012 – 010 – Slater Koekkoek

3 – 2012 – 019 – Andrei Vasilevsky

4 – 2009 – 027 – Vladislav Namestnikov

5 – 2011 – 148 – Nikita Nesterov

6 – 2009 – 162 – Jaroslav Janus

7 – 2008 – 152 – Mark Barberio

8 – 2008 – FA – Tyler Johnson

9– 2012 – 40 – Dylan Blujus

10 – 2012 – 52 – Brian Hart

The Last Three Drafts

No	2012	2011	2010
1	010 Slater Koekkoek	027 Vlad Namestnikov	006 Brett Connolly
2	019 Andrei Vasilevsky	058 Nikita Kucherov	063 Brock Beukeboom
3	040 Dylan Blujus	148 Nikita Nesterov	066 RadkoGudas
4	053 Brian Hart	178 Adam Wilcox	072 Adam Janosik
5	071 Tanner Richard	201 Matthew Peca	096 Geoffrey Schemitsch
6	101 Cedric Paquette	208 OndrejPalat	156 Brendan O’Donnell
7	161 Jake Dotchin		189 Teigan Zahn
8	202 Nikita Gusev