In the eyes of some, the NHL’s Calder Trophy race is tighter than ever. As New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer has started to slow down offensively, Montreal Canadiens winger Ivan Demidov has begun to take flight. The tides are seemingly shifting.
But that’s missing a lot of key context. As it stands, Schaefer should be the runaway favorite for the award, and that’s not because Demidov is doing anything wrong, either.
Schaefer Is Already a Franchise Defenseman
Let’s set the scene. Schaefer is averaging 23:53 of ice time per night, ranking 21st in the league among defensemen—he’s the Islanders’ top guy. Across 41 games, he has 10 goals and 16 assists, putting him on pace for a 52-point campaign.
Related: Islanders’ Matthew Schaefer Is One of a Kind in NHL History
However, it’s the defense that really sets the 18-year-old apart. In 5-on-5 action, Schaefer has outscored opponents 34–22 and is allowing less than two goals per 60 minutes. Goaltending has certainly helped in that department, but this is an elite two-way impact.
New York isn’t exactly a world-beater when he’s off the ice, showcasing his impact. Here are the team’s goal and expected goal differentials with and without Schaefer on the ice at 5-on-5 this season (also known as “WOWY”).
| 5-on-5 Stats | Schaefer On-Ice | Schaefer Off-Ice |
| Goal Differential (%) | 34–22 (60.71%) | 36–48 (42.86%) |
| Expected Goal Differential (%) | 29.65–28.77 (50.75%) | 46.99–59.10 (44.29%) |
Short and simple, the Islanders are a basement-dweller when Schaefer is resting on the bench. Outscored by 12 goals with an ugly 44.29% expected goal share, those results contrast starkly with a plus-12 goal differential and 50.75% expected goal share.
This franchise-level two-way play can be quantified. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ranks 21st in the league at 1.93, and fourth among defensemen. Only Zach Werenski, Moritz Seider, and Jakob Chychrun are ahead—three stars in their prime.
For reference, Lane Hutson had one of the best rookie defenseman seasons of all time in 2024–25. His WAR was 1.68, finishing 37th for blueliners.
Demidov’s Usage Is the Elephant in the Room
Now, there’s Demidov. He has 10 goals and 25 assists in 40 games, putting him on pace for 72 points. Only seven rookies have reached that mark this century, and he’s been especially hot of late. Most impressively of all, he’s a borderline point-per-game player while averaging just 15:03 a night.
But the ice time is kind of the issue here. To be the league’s top rookie, you have to have the most significant on-ice impact. Due to his usage, that opportunity just hasn’t been there.
Revisiting the WOWY chart from earlier, Demidov is quite good, but not franchise-level. Take a look:
| 5-on-5 Stats | Demidov On-Ice | Demidov Off-Ice |
| Goal Differential (%) | 28–25 (52.83%) | 58–62 (48.33%) |
| Expected Goal Differential (%) | 19.78–20.68 (48.89%) | 65.73–67.31 (49.41%) |
If Demidov were playing more, we could theoretically expect the on-ice vs. off-ice gap to widen. But for goal differential, it’s only a gap of four percentage points compared to Schaefer’s 18.
Looking at WAR, Demidov is at 1.01, an impressive 70th among forwards. That doesn’t compare to fourth among defensemen, though.
You can only impact the game so much when you’re playing 15 minutes a night. It’s the same reason why rookie netminder Jesper Wallstedt isn’t a frontrunner. He’s one of the most efficient goalies in the game, sporting a .928 save percentage, 2.21 goals-against average, and an 11–2–3 record with four shutouts. But he’s a tandem guy, not the No. 1.
Considering his lack of usage, Demidov is defying the odds, continuing to prove why he has best-in-the-NHL upside. However, he’s on a Habs team that is relying more on Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki to carry the load.
A Reminder: The Calder Trophy Race Doesn’t Dictate the Future
Right now, Demidov should be a distant second in the Calder Trophy race, in my eyes. It’s important to remember, though, that the future of these two studs won’t be impacted in the slightest.
There’s a world where, in a few years, Schaefer is the NHL’s best defenseman, and Demidov is the NHL’s best forward. Their rookie campaigns are proving that.
The point-scoring is trending downward for Schaefer and up for Demidov. But even if the latter finishes 25 points ahead, the overall impact should still heavily be in Schaefer’s favor. It’s hard to compete with a generational run.
Stats courtesy of Hockey Stats