While the Toronto Maple Leafs have won their last three games and are five points out of a playoff spot, it shouldn’t take away from the fact that this team remains inconsistent and can go cold for a long stretch in an instant. They have a 10% chance of making it, per Money Puck and a lot needs to go right. Seeing as they’re right back where they started before the Christmas break, it remains an uphill battle.
The reality is the playoffs are a long shot and general manager Brad Treliving shouldn’t steer away from being sellers at the trade deadline. Even if they do make it, they won’t get far. They have limited assets to be buyers and you don’t want to fully wipe out your prospect pool to remain competitive in a season where you’re not. They need to be sellers and there’s more talk surrounding Bobby McMann being on the move and getting a return.
However, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is truly the Maple Leafs’ best trade chip heading into the deadline and can bring in a sizeable return. Here is why.
Contract Extremely Friendly and Comparison
For one, his $3.5 million cap-hit is extremely affordable and team friendly that would instantly attract any suitor in the playoff hunt. Second, he’s under contract beyond this season for two more, that alone makes him even more valuable. Third, while he has a 16-team no trade list, there’s bound to be a couple of playoff contenders that would want to call and pay up for that kind of a contract and value. While he’s a left shot defenseman, he’s versatile in that he can play on his off-side and up and down the lineup.
It isn’t ideal to offload that contract and player as he has been extremely productive for the Maple Leafs this season, but they really have no choice in doing so as the team can get a sizeable return. If it were up to me, I’d keep him on the roster but the last few weeks has changed the narrative, for good or bad. If there’s a starting point in terms of what a return could look like, I point to what the Calgary Flames got in return for Rasmus Andersson– a first-round pick, a roster player (in this case Zach Whitecloud) and a B-level prospect.
Andersson is younger by five years and giving up a first-round pick makes sense. However, Ekman-Larsson has term beyond this season, which makes giving up a first-round pick reasonable. The Maple Leafs gave up a conditional one for Brandon Carlo– which has backfired– but Ekman-Larsson continues to prove to be more effective and have upside. He’s been just as productive as he has 34 points and Andersson has 33. They both have 16 primary points at five-on-five, but Ekman-Larsson does have an advantage as his 25 points at 5v5 is 11th among defenders and Andersson is 29th with 19. If Andersson was worth a first, so should Ekman-Larsson.
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If they’re able to land another serviceable player, ideally a defender, they could be inserted into the lineup right away. Will they have the same impact as Ekman-Larsson? Possibly. If the Maple Leafs can get another depth defender in the mold of a Whitecloud or maybe one with the same kind of mobility, that could be helpful. If they can also land a prospect that can be a depth add, that could also be beneficial as they need to bolster for their future.
Impactful for Playoff Run
If there was one positive to this season for the Maple Leafs, it was the production from their defense as Ekman-Larsson is leading the charge. If a playoff contending team is looking for a strong second or third pairing defenseman with offensive upside and production, he would be the best one on the market.
When he’s on the ice, the team has a high danger goals percentage for 60%, which is a fantastic rate for a defenseman. Even looking at his overall impact, he can be a difference maker and impact driver when it comes to the offensive side of the game. Ekman-Larsson remains a strong breakout and puck-moving defender and his playmaking remains a real strength to his game. He’s a steady defender but the numbers aren’t on his side this season as everyone on the Maple Leafs are getting hemmed within their own zone. He’s physical, can break up plays and can transition quickly.
Ekman-Larsson isn’t elite by any means, but he remains effective and teams would definitely love to add a depth defenseman of his caliber that can be that impactful on both sides of the puck. He already has a Stanley Cup to his resume with the Florida Panthers and can definitely be a strong veteran presence for a long run. That also makes him a valuable asset ahead of the deadline.
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While the Maple Leafs aren’t mathematically out the playoff race, it’s not likely given how strong the competition is in their division. They’re not good enough to contend and they need to gain assets and be in sell mode.
They do have some enticing players that can garner attention. However, Ekman-Larsson is the perfect trade chip to do just that and the return could be what they need in order to re-tool their roster.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Stats.
