Predicting Will Smith’s Extension With the Sharks After Macklin Celebrini’s Record-Breaking Deal

The San Jose Sharks inked franchise cornerstone Macklin Celebrini to a five-year, $94 million deal with an $18.8 million average annual value (AAV), eclipsing Leo Carlsson’s $18 million AAV for the highest in NHL history. Now that Batman is secured in teal, the Sharks’ attention shifts to Robin. What could an extension for Celebrini’s wingman Will Smith look like?

Celebrini earned the league’s highest cap hit by breaking the Sharks franchise record for most points in a season, previously held by Hall-of-Famer Joe Thornton, and led Team Canada in goals at the Olympics. After a game where Jon Cooper played Celebrini a team-high 25:53 time on ice, the Canada head coach said, “I’m surprised I didn’t play him more.” If San Jose’s franchise player wanted the max value, he was going to get it. Celebrini was always calling the shots.

The NHL salary cap increase is looming, and the market for the next generation of stars has flipped on its head now with the Carlsson offer sheet drama, Celebrini’s extension and Connor Bedard’s contract in Chicago. Smith’s magic number isn’t quite as obvious, so here are some factors to consider when projecting his next contract in San Jose. 

Comparable Contracts in Other Markets

As Smith looks to sign an extension following Celebrini’s deal as San Jose’s number one player, there are some comparable recent deals for teams who signed their number twos. 

Jason Robertson is a great example of a competitive team’s number two best player who signed a deal that should be higher than whatever Smith gets because he is, at this moment, someone the Sharks hope his play can ascend towards. Robertson’s first deal after his entry-level contract (ELC), which he signed in 2022, was for $7.75 million AAV for four years. The kind of performance that earned that number was 125 points in 128 games, including a breakout 2021-22 season where he scored 41 goals.

On July 21, he signed a one-year, $12 million deal to stay in Dallas for 2026-27, walking him right to the open market next summer. The looming cap increase is drawing a lot of interest and speculation from teams around the NHL, causing big deals to be shorter in term for star talents so they can re-test the market when the cap is confirmed.

Lucas Raymond for the Detroit Red Wings is another comparable player who is one of the closest to Smith’s play at the time of contract, and was in a similar situation in Detroit where the team was on the rise and he was their next young forward behind then-established leader Dylan Larkin. In 2023-24, Raymond played 82 games, scoring 31 goals and 72 points total that got him an eight-year deal with an $8.075 million AAV.

Now, a player who had hype but not to the degree Smith currently has is Trevor Zegras. The former Duck signed his first extension in Anaheim for three years at $5.75 million AAV. The season preceding that deal was just shy of Smith’s 2025-26 production. He played 81 games, scoring 23 goals and 65 points.

Smith has played two years of his three-year ELC. Raymond and Zegras completed their entire rookie deal before getting a new contract, while Robertson played two full years like Smith after just a three-game cup of coffee for his first NHL action in 2019-20. If Smith signs this summer like his teammate Celebrini, his money-making season would be 2025-26, where he scored 24 goals and 59 points in 69 games. That number may not jump off the page, but his points per game (P/G) is at 0.86. Robertson was at 1.07, Raymond at 0.88, and Zegras at 0.80 P/G before signing their extensions.

San Jose’s Cap

Taking similar player performance around the league and their contracts into consideration, the Sharks’ cap situation is another factor that obviously will come into play when predicting Smith’s extension. 

San Jose just filled their last remaining roster hole by re-signing restricted free agent (RFA) Collin Graf to a three-year deal carrying a $4.25 million AAV. The Sharks now have just a touch over $3 million left on the cap for the upcoming season, but that won’t be a problem regarding Smith since he still has his last year on his rookie deal before an extension would begin in 2027-28. 

Sharks general manager Mike Grier recently said, “Smitty is someone we’d like to lock up long-term as well,” when discussing Celebrini’s extension. He noted the Sharks would like to get a deal done in the summer, but is also confident they can figure something out during the season. 

Three of the game’s youngest stars have recently cashed in on high AAV contracts, each for five years, as Celebrini, Carlsson and Bedard have all signed for $18.8 million, $18 million, and $15 million respectively. What helps Smith is that the market for top talent has just been reset by those contracts, changing the landscape for contracts in the near future. What hurts Smith is that all three of those players are centers. He was notably drafted as a center himself but has primarily played wing in the NHL, so his deal won’t reach that tier. Part of why Robertson, Raymond and Zegras were good comps for a contract is that they are also all wingers. 

Will Smith’s Projection

Smith’s extension is contingent on the deals of the aforementioned similar players above, Celebrini’s extension and the Sharks’ cap situation. 

Robertson is the player comp that is clearly ahead of Smith that should not be surpassed, in theory. His $12 million cap hit with the Stars for 2026-27 was backed by a 96-point season on top of a 109-point season and a couple 80-point campaigns under his belt.

Raymond is close to Smith in production, even though his ceiling isn’t as high, and was also a fourth-overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Factoring in the cap that is rumored to rise all the way to $113.5 million in 2027-28, that will likely inflate Smith’s number above Raymond’s $8.075 million AAV. It should also get his number above both Zegras’ first contract with a $5.75 million AAV and the extension he just signed with the Philadelphia Flyers that is for four years at $9.125 million AAV.

The sweet spot for Smith and the Sharks, if both sides play nice, would be a contract with an AAV of $10.5 million for five years. Since Smith has shown a lot of improvement over the course of his two seasons, it seems likely that he won’t want to leave money on the table by signing an eight-year max term when his stats, and a potential return to playing center, could boost his value in the near future.

The rising salary cap and the reset market for top talent is fresh, so these numbers can still be jarring. Bowen Byram being the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL for the Chicago Blackhawks is still hard to believe, but that contract should be surpassed relatively soon since players like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are due for new deals soon and contract numbers are only going to continue to climb. 

The Sharks should be able to get a deal with Smith done that doesn’t hamstring their financial situation. Smith obviously won’t make anywhere near as much as Celebrini, who did finish with almost double the amount of points as him and is the best young player in the sport that is already often likened to Sidney Crosby. $10.5 million is still a respectable number that indicates he is a budding star in his own right, but also gives the Sharks flexibility to keep other young talents like Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, Yaroslav Askarov, Igor Chernyshov and Ivar Stenberg if they all take the kind of leaps that are expected of them in the next few seasons.