The New York Islanders weren’t a playoff team all season. They weren’t when they got off to a slow start, as was true by American Thanksgiving, the midseason break, and the trade deadline. Last week removed all doubt. Their 4-3 shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers officially eliminated them from playoff contention.
Related: Would the Islanders Be Better Off if They Kept Trotz?
This team is now playing out the string with some meaningless hockey games (although some fans might claim the losses can go a long way when it comes to the draft). However, the bigger questions loom this offseason as it’s going to be a long and consequential summer on Long Island.
Changes are coming for the Islanders, but it’s unknown how much change. A retool can happen, but so can a teardown. What makes the most sense? It depends on how the past season was perceived and how ownership views the state of the Islanders, a team that has regressed in recent seasons and doesn’t have a clear path to contention.
Retool on the Fly
The Islanders have a lot of intriguing pieces on their roster, so it’s easy for one to talk themselves into a retool, especially one that doesn’t require many players to move. Ilya Sorokin is a bright spot and has proved he can provide stability in the net, and a healthy Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat connection can lead the top line. Pair that with a good, not great, defense, and the Islanders can head into next season looking like a playoff team, assuming they make a few good signings as well.
The first issue is that this essentially leaves the Islanders in the same spot they’ve been for the past few seasons. With minimal changes, they look like the same team that, at best, can make it to the playoffs only to lose in the first round and, at worst, is where they are currently. Unless they start over or overhaul the roster significantly, they’ll have a low ceiling.
The other issue with a retool on the fly is that it signals that general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello will still be around. If this season proved anything, it’s that Lamoriello’s time in the NHL is running out, or it’s best to move on from him altogether. The Islanders have been in a steady decline in recent seasons, and a change at GM might be needed to fix that.
A retool is contingent on whether Lamoriello is around or not. If he stays, there’s a good chance the Islanders, who will have some salary cap space to work with, will look to add this summer. If he’s gone, then they can take a different path, one better suited for the team at the moment.
A Teardown With Roy Leading the Way
If Lamoriello is gone, there’s a good chance head coach Patrick Roy will have a stronger say in roster decisions and be second in command to the GM. He’ll be at the forefront of fixing an otherwise broken farm system and will notably hire a head coach to instill an identity in the Bridgeport Islanders, the American Hockey League (AHL) team that is historically bad (four home wins all season bad).
More importantly, Roy will change how the Islanders evaluate talent. He wants consistency and players who show up with a maximum effort night in and night out. Sure, bursts are great, but he wants constant production, and the players brought in will reflect that. The Islanders can hire a new GM, but only one who is willing to work with him and allow the team to be built in the head coach’s vision.
The question is whether the Islanders want to be built in Roy’s vision, and if they will be better off if they are. This is a team that looked awful at the end of the season, and most notably, they looked mentally checked out in some lopsided losses, which included a 9-2 defeat to the New York Rangers on April 10. If Roy isn’t the answer behind the bench, he shouldn’t be in the front office, either.
Islanders Start From Scratch
If the Islanders choose to fire Lamoriello, they can take the most extreme path and clean house. Doing so allows them to start over from the front office all the way down. They can bring in a new GM and a new coach, and if needed, overhaul the roster and start over.
This would set them up for a rebuild if they want. The Islanders don’t need a rebuild per se, as much as they need a retool of some kind, but moving on from both Lamoriello and Roy would allow them to do that. It would be a tough process to go through, yet it would set them up for long-term success.
The Islanders, if they want, can move on from everyone this summer, except the players with long-term contracts (and some, like Pierre Engvall, can have their contracts bought out as well). With a good core to build around, the Islanders have a starting point for a successful rebuild, and it won’t leave them at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for a long time as a result.
Which Path Makes the Most Sense For the Islanders?
If ownership wants to take their medicine, the best move is to start from scratch. A new GM comes in and hires a new head coach to start a new chapter. While Roy has proven he can be a great coach, it’s easy to have a clean break, and recent history suggests a holdover coach isn’t a great idea. The Philadelphia Flyers kept John Tortorella around when Daniel Briere was hired in the middle of the 2022-23 season, but eventually, Briere wanted to make his own hire. The same was true about the Toronto Maple Leafs when Brad Treliving took over as GM in the 2023 offseason, as he fired Sheldon Keefe the next offseason.
If the Islanders bring in a new GM and head coach, then they can look at the roster and decide which players to keep and build around. At the very least, Barzal, Horvat, Sorokin, and either Noah Dobson or Alexander Romanov are the building blocks and everyone else the Islanders can look to move on from one way or another. It’s also possible the Islanders will only trade one or two players but keep the roster intact for the most part and work from there. Regardless, if this team wants to make changes, starting at the top is the best way to go.
