The knock against the Ottawa Senators until last season was their struggles to win one-goal games and their failure to close out winnable contests, often blowing a lead. That started to change late last season when they were one of the hottest teams in the NHL over their final 20 games. Nine of those matchups were one-goal games, of which they won six.
After 29 games this season, the Senators are again finding it difficult to win one-goal games. In their last 10 contests, four of their six losses were by a goal to teams they, arguably, should beat. If they don’t make adjustments soon, this will become a problem for their playoff drive.
Tight Games Matter in the NHL
Given the parity in the NHL, games are now low-scoring affairs. The number of NHL games decided by just one goal is hard to find, but NHL.com estimated that in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 NHL season, games decided by a one-goal margin (or multiple goals with at least one empty-netter), accounted for 69.7% of all games.
That figure may be too high, but keep in mind that 64% of the Senators’ games this season have been decided by one goal. The same stat for other top teams in the Atlantic Division at the time of writing was 50% for the Boston Bruins, 48% for the Tampa Bay Lightning and 42% for the Detroit Red Wings.
If around half of the NHL’s games are decided by one goal, teams had better figure out a way to score them. As former Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock put it, “You look at those one-goal losses – a goal here, a goal there turns those losses into ties or overtimes or wins.”
Judging by last season’s record of winning one-goal games, the Senators seemed to have figured out how to compete in what many call a one-goal league. It was a sign the team was maturing and taking the next step to becoming a contender. But this season, they’ve taken a step back.
Senators’ One-Goal Game Record in 2025-26 Compared
The Senators’ struggles to win close games were on full display in their recent three game homestand that featured a 4-2 loss on Dec. 4 to the New York Rangers, a 2-1 loss on Dec. 6 to the St. Louis Blues and a 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Dec. 9 – and it’s been like this all season. Here’s a look at their record on one-goal games this season compared to 2024-25.
| Metric | 2024-25 | 2025-26 to date |
| Total games played | 82 | 28 |
| One-goal games | 34 (41%) | 18 (64%) |
| One-goal game record | 21-6-7 | 8-6-4 |
| One-goal game win % | 62% | 44% |
Last regular season, the Senators were among the very best in the Atlantic at winning one-goal games. The table below shows how they compared to the division’s five 2025 Playoff seeds on one-goal wins.
| Team | One-goal game win % |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 71 |
| Florida Panthers | 68 |
| Ottawa Senators | 62 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 54 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 44 |
It’s clear that, for the most part, playoff teams consistently win coin-flip games and protect narrow leads in the third period to eke out a win. Nobody is accusing the Senators of doing that this season.
Blown Leads: The Senators’ Old Bad Habit
In the last few seasons, Senators fans have complained bitterly about their team blowing third-period leads, especially multi-goal leads. As this table shows, these problems are back:
Ottawa Senators’ Blown Leads (after 2nd Period) 2025-26 To Date
| Metric | Value |
| Times leading after 2nd period | 12 |
| Blown Leads (lost or tied after leading) | 4 |
| Blown Lead Rate | 33% |
Giving up one in three leads is not a recipe for success. In too many games this season, the Senators take the lead but can’t build on it. On Dec. 9, against the Devils, they had the lead twice in the first frame only to let their New Jersey guests off the ropes by giving up a tying goal. Early in the second period, they went down a goal and chased the Devils for the rest of the game, losing 4-3. They need to find a way to build on leads and snuff out comeback attempts from their opponents.
The Senators Can’t Mount Comebacks
With the acquisitions of Fabian Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens last year, many expected the team’s improved forward depth to allow them to eke out more wins in tight games. Adding veterans like David Perron, Michael Amadio, Lars Eller and Nick Cousins (all Stanley Cup champions) also padded expectations that the Senators would have the mental resilience and bench leadership to claw their way back from one and two-goal deficits.
That simply hasn’t been the case. As the table shows, comebacks have been hard to come by for the Senators.
Ottawa Senators’ Comeback Wins 2025-26 To Date
| Trailing After | Comeback Wins |
| 1st Period | 2 |
| 2nd Period | 1 |
Why the Senators Struggle to Win Tight Games
Many a pundit has tried to explain why the Senators struggle to win tight games this season. A recent article in The Hockey Writers argued that the team’s slide down the standings is a system failure – not just bad luck. Their penalty kill is the second-worst in the NHL. While their power play is potent, their 5-on-5 scoring is mediocre, ranked 19th in the league. At the time of writing, no other team in the Atlantic has scored fewer goals than the Senators. They aren’t generating enough high-danger chances, and when they do, they aren’t converting them into goals.
Related: Ottawa Senators at the Quarter Mark: Encouraging Signs and Reasons for Concern
Not only that, but injuries have plagued the Senators all season. Captain Brady Tkachuk was out for 20 games to start the campaign. Now, Thomas Chabot, an anchor on the blue line and high-scoring centreman Shane Pinto are day-to-day. None of this helps the team’s scoring.
Then there’s goaltending, which can determine the outcome in tight games. On that count, the Senators haven’t had very good goaltending this season. Starter Linus Ullmark has disappointed in 22 starts, registering a save percentage of .877 and a goals-against average of 3.05. His understudy Leevi Merilainen’s numbers are .878 and 3.36, respectively.
None of this is the work of even an average NHL goaltender, making it difficult for the Senators to steal tight games. To win low-scoring contests, teams must have at least one goalie who can stop the unstoppable when needed.
The Senators have been inconsistent over their first 29 games of the season, only once managing to string together three wins in a row. Their current three-game losing streak is their second this season. For the most part, they alternate between winning and losing from game to game. Their over-reliance on the top six in high-pressure moments, turnovers and neutral-zone breakdowns late in close games also limits their ability to steal close contests.
The Senators’ Playoff Hopes Depend on Winning One-Goal Games
To this point in the season, almost two in three contests were one-goal affairs for the Senators – and they lost most of them. This has to turn around if they are to punch a ticket to the playoffs in the spring.
