The Dallas Stars head into Game 4 on Saturday with a 2-1 series lead against the Colorado Avalanche, and it’s already been a wild ride through three games. If the Stanley Cup Playoffs started in the middle of March, a 2-1 lead wouldn’t be too much of a surprise, and it really shouldn’t be now either. However, with Dallas’ injuries, not to mention ending the season with a seven-game losing streak, all the good vibes and series predictions shifted to the Avalanche before Game 1.
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Well, here we are. The Stars are 60 minutes away from taking a stranglehold on Round 1, and in some ways, Game 4 could be labeled a must-win. Of course, it’s not really a must-win according to its true definition, but based on the razor-thin margin for error in this series, and the superstar caliber talent the Avalanche possess, this is a huge opportunity to suffocate the belief inside that Colorado dressing room.
How the Stars Got Here
If you’re a Stars fan or someone who picked them to win the series, you were already defending the idea of the Stars getting past the Avalanche before the puck dropped. That didn’t get any easier after the Stars lost 5-1 in Game 1. The score was lopsided, but it was a much closer contest than the numbers would suggest. It was a 2-1 game halfway through the third period, and the first two Avalanche goals were a result of fortunate bounces and fluky deflections. Still, the score was what it was, and the Avalanche took the 1-0 series lead.
Games 2 and 3 could have gone either way, but they both went the way of the Stars. In Game 2, Dallas came from behind twice, and Colin Blackwell emerged as the overtime hero after almost 78 minutes of hockey. At 3:40 of the second period, Thomas Harley scored to give the Stars a 2-1 lead. At 4:42, Jack Drury scored for the Avalanche to tie the game 2-2. That 1:02 is the only time the Stars have had the lead in the entire series, yet they hold the 2-1 advantage.
In Game 3, it took a third-period power-play goal from Jamie Benn to tie the game and an overtime goal from Tyler Seguin to give the Stars the win. In addition, the Stars killed off six penalties, including a double-minor at the end of the third that bled into the beginning of overtime. It has taken every small detail for the Stars to be where they are in this series. From goaltending to special teams, it has taken a complete team effort.
As close as this series has been, the Stars have had the clear advantage on the special teams. The Stars have scored on 30% of their power plays through three games, which is a very good clip. The Avalanche are only at 15.4%. On the other side, the Stars are 84.6% on the penalty kill, while the Avalanche are at 70%. The special teams could very well be the difference in the series, depending on how this goes in the next week.
Why Do the Stars Need to Win Game 4?
So, why is Game 4 a must-win? Technically, it’s not. As we all know, if Colorado wins, it’s a 2-2 series and becomes a best-of-three from here on out, two games of which the Stars will have at home. However, I’m calling it a must-win for a few different reasons. If you compare the stats of these two teams throughout the regular season, they are as close as it gets, and that has translated into this series. Through three games, the Stars have scored seven goals and the Avalanche have scored nine. If you take away the empty-net goal and the garbage-time goal after that in Game 1, it would be an even seven goals a piece. I know it doesn’t quite work that way, but you get my point.
The Stars have averaged 30.3 shots per game while the Avalanche have averaged an even 30. Colorado netminder Mackenzie Blackwood has a .923 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.07 goals-against average (GAA). Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has a .910 SV% and a 2.37 GAA. The margins really have been extremely thin throughout the first half of this series. Right now, the Stars have the edge and the momentum. If this series goes back to Dallas tied 2-2, they go back to square one, and there is no longer momentum or a clear advantage for either side. The Avalanche are Stanley Cup contenders and are full of winners. There’s no need to give them hope or belief, just finish the job.
The next line of reasoning is health. The Stars are without one of their best goal-scorers in Jason Robertson, and their best defensemen, some say their best overall player, Miro Heiskanen. Robertson did not travel with the team to Colorado, so we know he won’t be playing in Game 4 and is still listed as week-to-week. Heiskanen has been participating in 5-on-5 drills in practice but has yet to be cleared for intentional physical contact. There are rumors that he could be ready to go for Game 4 or 5, but head coach Peter DeBoer has not given a specific timeline. If the Stars win on Saturday, there’s no rush or pressure to get these two guys back. The last thing you want to do is bring either of them back before they’re fully ready. Get a win, and there’s no need to even think about it until they’re good to go.
Lastly, and similar to the last point, is health, but in a different way. Whoever wins this series will play the winner of the series between the Winnipeg Jets and the St. Louis Blues. The Jets currently hold a 2-1 lead. Those two teams have been beating the snot out of each other through three games, and it has the makings of a long and grueling series. The Blues are out-hitting the Jets 136-125, and the physicality has been from puck drop to the buzzer in every game. While the Stars and Avalanche have been physical at times, it’s nowhere near the level of that series, and whoever wins is going to play against a team that just went through war. If the Stars can clean up in five or six games, not only do their injured players get extra rest, but so does the rest of the team.
Stars Continue to Prove Their Doubters Wrong
The doubters may be right when it’s all said and done, but as of right now, they are being proven wrong in a big way. With the losing streak and the injuries, it was quickly forgotten that the Stars are one of the deepest teams in the NHL. The best part for the Stars is that their top guns haven’t been producing at the level they are expected to. To be clear, it’s only the best part because they are up 2-1 in the series.
Harley is leading the team with three points. Seguin, Benn, Mason Marchment, Sam Steel, and Wyatt Johnston all have two points, and only Seguin and Benn have goals out of the players listed. Out of the seven goals they’ve scored, only Seguin has two. With guys like Blackwell and Evgenii Dadonov scoring timely goals, it gives time to players like Johnston, Marchment, Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen, and others to get rolling. If they can do it in Game 4, it will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the roster.
The defensive play and the special teams of the Stars have been a masterclass for the majority of the series. If their offense can follow suit in Game 4, there’s no reason why the Stars can’t go back to American Airlines Center up 3-1 with a chance to close in front of the Stars’ faithful.
