For as dominant as the Florida Panthers have been over the last several seasons, they have not necessarily dominated the Atlantic Division during the regular season. Last season, they finished third in the Atlantic with 98 points, the season prior they finished first with 110 points (beating out the Boston Bruins by just one point), and two seasons ago they finished fourth with 92 points, barely squeaking into the playoffs as the eighth seed.
Last season is a good example of how the Panthers were far from dominant in the regular season, especially in interdivisional matchups. They finished just 12-12-2 in 26 total games against teams in the Atlantic, and just 7-10-1 against the top five teams. They stumbled especially hard towards the end of the season when they were battling for home-ice advantage, going 3-6-1 in their last 10 games of the regular season, nine of which were against teams in the Atlantic.
Of course, this lack of divisional dominance has done little to tarnish their run of dominance, and the Panthers have had good reason for not going all out during the regular season. They are an older, experienced team that knows – and has proven definitively – that they can come together when it matters most.
Regardless, it is a fun exercise to try and predict where the Panthers will stack up in the Atlantic this season, and that is what this article will attempt to do.
How Good Will the Panthers Be?
The Panthers last season went 47-31-4, along with a 16-5-2 record in the postseason, to capture their second consecutive Stanley Cup. They had some injuries during the regular season: Aleksander Barkov missed 15 games with various injuries, Matthew Tkachuk missed 29 games with a groin injury he sustained at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and Aaron Ekblad missed 26 games, 20 of which were due to suspension.
This season, the Panthers will run back essentially the same roster from the year prior. They acquired a new backup goalie in Daniil Tarasov and made a few depth signings, but are otherwise unchanged. Their clear priority this offseason was re-signing their own players, as they ensured that Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Aaron Ekblad were all locked in long-term.
It seems fair to project the Panthers to be very similar to the team they were last season. There will be injuries and a gradual buildup to the playoffs given the fact that this is one of the oldest teams in the NHL.
How Good Will Their Main Competition Be?
While the Panthers will be largely the same, several teams in the Atlantic look markedly different. The Toronto Maple Leafs, who won the division last season, lost star forward Mitch Marner and replaced him with smaller depth signings. The loss of one of the NHL’s elite scoring wingers will be a big blow for Toronto.
The other two relevant teams here, barring something very surprising, are the Ottawa Senators and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning finished four points ahead of the Panthers in the regular season, but were clearly outmatched in their first round loss to the Panthers in five games. They return a very similar team from last season.
The Senators are an interesting team to project. After being mired in an extended rebuild, they took a real and significant step forward last season to finish with 97 points and a playoff berth. They have a solid young core that will likely take another step forward this season. A lot of their success rides on the health and performance of Linus Ullmark. When healthy, Ullmark has been a solid number-one option. But injuries combined with sharing starts in Boston with Jeremy Swayman mean that he has still never started more than 49 games in his career.
Prediction for the Panthers
Even though the Panthers finished third last season, and they have little incentive to go all out during the regular season, I think this season they will win the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs will feel the loss of Marner, and the Lightning and Senators are still a significant step behind the Panthers in terms of depth and talent. With that said, it should be a tight, down-to-the-wire race between these four teams throughout the season.
