Coming into the 2026 NHL Draft season, everyone had Penn State winger Gavin McKenna as the consensus first overall pick. Last season, he showcased why as he had 129 points in 56 games, winning CHL Player of the year.
However, this season has been a challenge for McKenna. While he has put up decent production with 18 points in 16 games, many in the hockey world were left wanting more from him. Yes, the transition was going to be a challenge for him in a league where the competition is much stronger and he needs to react quicker. But there were flaws and inconsistencies in his game. With the World Junior Championship behind us, it was a chance for him to elevate his stock. He had a great showing, but Team Sweden’s Ivar Stenberg really shined with his compete and pro-like game. Canada’s Keaton Verhoeff has been labelled the top defender in this draft and even had a decent showing himself.
With the tournament over and everyone going back to their respective teams, there have been a few questions on everyone’s mind to this point. Is McKenna really the top prospect in this draft and who really has the edge as the first overall pick? The tournament may have answered that.
McKenna Was Good, But Not Great
For McKenna, it definitely felt like the quietest 14-point performance at this tournament. Usually for a top prospect that would make noise instantly, but it didn’t this time. Maybe winning bronze may have overshadowed that, but you can’t deny that McKenna was productive finishing second in tournament scoring and looking to silence the doubters. Breaking it down, 10 of those were primary points (goals and first assists) and seven were at even strength, showing both his ability to be dangerous at five-on-five and on the man advantage.
While he showed great offensive skill, puck control and the ability to lead a play, his consistency to take control over a game was hit or miss. There were moments he dominated like his four-point performance in the bronze medal game, others he was quieter than he should’ve been. The lack of engagement was evident and he even seemed to struggle under the pressure and physical play, but his skating and hands and puck handling got him out of some of those situations.
There were moments, like in their semi-final match-up against Czechia, where it did get to him and the physicality from the opposition overwhelmed him and he didn’t have the time and space to dominate. He wasn’t assertive when he needed to be as he was in previous games, he wasn’t confident in battles and wasn’t as involved compared to earlier on in the tournament. Czechia made the adjustments and it worked to their advantage. Not just on McKenna, but for everyone on Canada.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Canada’s Bronze Medal Win Over Finland at the World Juniors
McKenna didn’t have a bad tournament. He was one of the top point producers and at times looked like a number one pick. But he didn’t make any strides to create separation from everyone else chasing him as well. He needed to have a memorable tournament coming in. Stat wise, he did that. Overall play, not so much.
Stenberg Shined in Big Moments
As the tournament progressed, Stenberg became more productive and shined in big-game moments with his pro-like game and qualities at the forefront. He got points when it mattered, coming up clutch in Sweden’s semi-final game versus Finland with a goal and an assist and had two great setups in the gold medal game including icing it with an empty netter to give Sweden their first gold medal since 2012.
Stenberg’s confidence with the puck, hockey sense in the offensive zone and puck protection skills screams NHL ready. When he needed to take control of a shift, he did just that. He was dynamic with the puck, showing great skill and the work ethic on both sides of the puck, but he battled hard even showing the tenacity and physicality to his game at times. That always seems to be something that is always lacking in a prospect’s game, but Stenberg is already showing that sandpaper to his game. He’s already learned to play that way with Frolunda HC in the SHL and it’s working perfectly.
Stenberg showed great strength in puck battles and his play and patience with the puck makes him elusive in the offensive zone. Even with his off-puck play, he takes time and space away and disrupts plays effectively. Those details in his game should be something that draft lottery teams look for as he has a motor and compete level that doesn’t quit in the tough areas.
Stenberg’s pace of play, ability to open things up and spot seams and shooting lanes and puck skills are on another level. It’s a big reason why he’s been successful this season and why he was the top prospect at this tournament.
Verhoeff’s Puck-Moving Abilities
While he didn’t make his debut until the second game of the tournament against Denmark, Verhoeff was another strong puck-mover from Canada’s backend. It was tough to take him out after he had a strong tournament with four assists in five games. After making the jump to the collegiate ranks, his game continued to carry over as a young player in an older tournament.
Even though he averaged 11:10 of ice time per game as he was further down the depth chart, Verhoeff showed the offensive instincts with his reads and picking his spots at the right time to jump in and activate on the attack and cycle in the offensive zone. While that can be risky, he knows when to pull back and get back into position defensively. He showed great composure when skating through the neutral zone and was able to move around defenders and find the open lanes with ease.
While he’s effective on the defensive side with good positioning and coverage, he didn’t have that going for him at the tournament. He struggled at times with his decision making and processing to make plays and his inability to excel under pressure showed, turning the puck over at inopportune times.
Who Has The Edge?
This is going to be a huge debate up until draft day as it’s ultimately going to come down to the skill of McKenna or the compete and on-ice vision of Stenberg. McKenna’s skill should still have him in the top spot, but Stenberg had the more noticeable tournament, especially in the elimination stages. Verhoeff had a good showing, but it’s ultimately down to the two forwards.
Related: 2026 World Juniors Medal Round Preview: Sweden Looks to Cap Tournament off With Gold
Right now, Stenberg just edges McKenna out given the impressive showing he had and the compete, defensive minded game and consistency gives him the edge. We shouldn’t count out McKenna as he can still be the first overall pick. Given Stenberg’s season playing against men and still having a strong showing in his age group, he has the upper hand now.
