The Winnipeg Jets consider themselves in “win-now mode” but were not able to advance past the first round in either of the past two playoffs. Is their roster really good enough to contend for a Stanley Cup? Let’s check in and find out.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has created a “Stanley Cup Checklist,” and here we will take a look at his list to see which boxes the Jets tick and which they don’t.
With research stemming back to the Chicago Blackhawks’ 2010 Stanley Cup championship team, Luszczyszyn has tracked the positional trends each Stanley Cup champion had on their roster and how many impactful players they had. The list he has created has 10 items as follows:
- An elite first-line centre
- An elite first-line winger
- Two more top-line-calibre wingers in the top six
- One more top-line-calibre centre for the second line
- Two more top-six-calibre forwards in the middle six
- An elite No. 1 defenseman to play in the top pair
- One more No. 1-calibre defenseman to play behind him
- A top-pairing-calibre defenseman for the second pair
- Another top-pairing-calibre defenseman for a soft-minutes third-pair
- A top-10-calibre starting goaltender
(from “The Athletic, “Cup Checklist: Analyzing the rosters from the last decade of champions,” The Athletic, September 21, 2020)
An Elite First-Line Center – ✅
Starting up the middle, Mark Scheifele is obviously an elite first-line centre. The now 31-year-old is a staple up the middle for the team, has seven point-per-game-plus seasons in his career, and 717 points in 797-career games.
His defensive play and effort had been suspect prior to last season, but he really committed to improving his play without the puck in 2023-24 under now-retired head coach Rick Bowness. He is a more well-rounded and viable player for that and is locked up for another seven years.
An Elite First-Line Winger – ✅
Kyle Connor, Scheifele’s frequent line mate (for better or for worse) fit the bill of an elite first-line winger despite some defensive deficiencies.
One of the league’s most dangerous snipers and also an underrated passer, the 27-year-old has 243 goals and 242 assists for 485 points in 531-career games and has potted as many as 47 in a single season. It’s a marvel to watch him blow shots by goaltenders and generate dangerous chances out of nothing. He has the ninth-most goals in the league since 2017-18, his first full NHL campaign.
Two More Top-Line-Calibre Wingers in the Top Six — ✅
Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi both qualify here. Ehlers is a dynamic and electric talent who, despite being the focus of a ton of trade rumours over the past few months, seems more likely than not to be a Jet come the start of 2024-25. The Dane can go quiet at times, and many have questioned his usage throughout the years, but he posts strong underlying metrics and has 457 points in 605-career games since being drafted by the Jets ninth overall in 2014.
Vilardi, meanwhile, is a budding star who proved last season he could thrive in a top-line assignment after being a bottom-six guy with the Los Angeles Kings to begin his career. The now-24-year-old, in his first season in Winnipeg, was deployed in a top-six right-wing role with a rotating cast of linemates and recorded 22 goals and 14 assists for 36 points in 47 games. The net-front wizard has a skillset Winnipeg has not seen in a long time or perhaps ever — he doesn’t produce a ton on the rush, as nearly all of his goals last season came from within a foot of the net and were thanks to his uncanny awareness and stick-handling skills.
He seems more than capable of producing 50-plus points next season if he can stay healthy, especially considering his power play prowess.
One More Top-Line-Calibre Center for the Second Line — ❌
The Jets had this briefly, but lost it after Sean Monahan departed in free agency for the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The second-line centre position has been a hot topic in Winnipeg pretty much since Day 1 of the Jets 2.0 era, with many believing Bryan Little — the usual second line centre from the inaugural game in 2011 until his career-ending injury in November, 2019 — was unsuitable for the role and many players deployed since failing to be long-term solutions.
Monahan, who was acquired from the Montreal Canadiens in February, will not be easy to replace as he fit in seamlessly up the middle and put up 13 goals and 11 assists for 24 points in 34 games and winning 54.7 per cent of his faceoffs. However, replace him new head coach Scott Arniel and company must.
Related: Jets Have 4 Options for Second-Line Centre in 2024-25
With general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff not making any big additions in free agency, the next second-line centre will have to come from within, but none are a proven commodity in that position, hence the X here.
Two More Top-Six-Calibre Forwards in the Middle Six — ✅
Nino Niederreiter and Cole Perfetti are also members of a deep forward core who are top-six calibre, even if they don’t always play on the top six.
Niederreiter, who Cheveldayoff acquired in 2023 from the Nashville Predators, was a key part of a highly-effective third line with captain Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton last season that was strong defensively but also able to chip in on the scoresheet. The 31 year old Swiss product is more than capable of jumping to the top six if necessary and is the picture of consistency, with six 20-plus-goal and 10 30-plus-point seasons in his 13-year career.
Perfetti, the 10th overall 2020 pick and a big part of the Jets’ future, also qualifies. In the first three seasons of his career, the 22-year-old has mainly played right wing and been good there, especially in the first half of last season when he was a staple on the second line and had 29 points (12 goals, 17 assists) through 41 games before falling into an extended slump and seeing his role decrease. He still finished with a career-high 38 points in 71 games and is on the cusp of much more if he continues to develop in ways that were already evident last season and is given meaningful minutes.
An Elite No. 1 Defenseman to Play in the Top Pair — ✅
Josh Morrissey has blossomed into one of the NHL’s most dominant offensive defensemen — perhaps top 10 — over the past two seasons and has cemented himself as the cornerstone of the franchise on the back end.
The 29 year old recorded 145 points over the past two seasons and the added offense has not come at the expense of his defensive game, which is excellent (as evidenced by his plus-34 rating last season and his strong possession metrics.)
A Norris Trophy nomination has eluded him (he finished fifth in 2023 and seventh in 2024) but his elite status cannot be disputed even if it took him a little while longer than some other d-men to achieve that status.
One More No. 1-Calibre Defenseman to Play Behind Him — ✅
When you look at some analytics, you’ll find Dylan DeMelo is one of the NHL’s better defensive defensemen and is top-pairing calibre. His stay-at-home style complements Morrissey perfectly and allows him to jump up in the play with confidence.
The pair have been mainly joined at the hip for the past two-plus seasons. DeMelo has played 295 games for Winnipeg since being acquired from the Ottawa Senators near the 2019 Trade Deadline and it’s in Winnipeg where his true value has been illuminated. He has recorded 10 goals and 70 assists for 80 points with the Jets — including a career-high 31 points (three goals, 28 assists) last season — but any point production from him is more of a bonus than a must.
He just re-signed with the Jets on a four-year deal and should be Morrissey’s partner for the last four years of Morrissey’s eight-year deal.
A Top-Pairing-Calibre Defenseman for the Second Pair — ❌
Behind Morrissey and DeMelo, the Jets’ defensive situation is murky and they don’t have anyone else elite. You could debate whether Brenden Dillon was a lower top-pairing-calibre talent, but regardless, the hard-and-heavy staple of the Jets’ second pairing over the past three seasons departed in free agency for the Washington Capitals.
Neal Pionk, another staple of the second pairing, was once thought of as a potential top-pair guy and has recorded five-straight 30-plus point seasons, but his actual defensive play has gone downhill. His ongoing struggles to shut down opponents and prevent high-danger chances make it debatable as to whether he should even be considered top-four calibre, let alone top pairing, so they get an X when it comes to this item.
A Top-Pairing-Calibre Defenseman for Soft-Minutes Third Pair — ❌
The Jets get their third X here. Their defensive depth chart — behind the aforementioned Morrissey, DeMelo, and Pionk — consists of returnees Colin Miller and Dylan Samberg, new signings Dylan Coghlan and Haydn Fleury, and prospects Ville Heinola and Elias Salomonsson.
Miller is either a strong third-pairing defenseman or a fringe second-pairing defenseman. Samberg’s overall game is really coming along and he seems capable of a full-time second-pairing assignment after two strong seasons on the third pairing, but isn’t top-pairing calibre yet. Coghlan and Fleury are potentially-useful third-pairing pieces at most.
Related: Grading the Winnipeg Jets’ Free Agency Moves
Heinola could still develop into a top-pairing defenseman in the future — the Finn is cerebral and intelligent guy whose anticipation, reads, passing ability, and skating are all outstanding — but has only played 35-career NHL games and hasn’t been able to establish himself as an big-league regular, let alone a top-pairing calibre one. The Jets also have high hopes for Salomonsson, but he has yet to even come to North America from Sweden.
A Top-10-Calibre Starting Goaltender — ✅
Connor Hellebuyck is not only a top-10 NHL goaltender, but he’s top-five alongside Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin, and Juuse Saros (you can decide what order they belong.)
Other teams would (figuratively) kill for the type of goaltending Hellebuyck provides the Jets — and has provided them for almost a decade now — on a game-to-game basis. He is truly the straw that stirs their drink, has stolen countless games the team didn’t deserve to win, is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, and is a two-time recipient of that award.
He is a tremendous competitor, a workhorse who wants the crease every game, has 275 wins in 496 starts and 505 appearances, a .917 save percentage, and 119.0 Goals Saved Above Average on his career.
Cheveldayoff Has a Good Core, But Some Work to Do
The Jets won 52 games last season, and still have a good deal of top-end talent throughout their lineup, but will not be quite as deep to start 2024-25 than they were to end last season given Dillon, Monahan, Tyler Toffoli, and Laurent Brossoit’s departures. Even with those four, the team couldn’t get out of the first round as they were crushed by a much-more-playoff hardened Colorado Avalanche squad this past spring; it was undeniably a big missed opportunity given the big swings Cheveldayoff took to bring in additional talent.
However, the Jets still check seven of Luszczyszyn’s 10 boxes, at least in this author’s opinion. At the very least, they are a playoff-calibre club. If Cheveldayoff can add an impact defenseman via trade, his players on the cusp of stardom keep improving, and some of his key prospects develop into impactful NHLers within the next couple of seasons as hoped, the Jets will be able to contend for the Stanley Cup before their core gets too old.
