Guest post by Eldon MacDonald
This is the last of two posts updating the rankings of the top 60 prospects for the 2013 NHL draft.
Some things to note when looking at this list:
- Entrances into 31 to 60 from the bottom.
- Daňo, Marko – 39, up from 76. Top 5 in scoring at the U20s.
- Heatherington, Dillon – 50, up from 61. Had a good December plus was a little under-ranked last month.
- Petan, Nicolas – 51, up from 63. Lights out excellent every night.
- Wheaton, Mitchell – 54, up from 79. You can’t keep a big boy down forever.
- Trainor, Peter – 57, up from unranked. The best player on the ice for both sides, night after night, only 5 points out of QMJHL scoring lead.
- Dauphin, Laurent – 59, up from 65. Starting to look more like a big man than a wispy thin kid – still needs to add more weight and strength though.
- Jarry, Tristan – 60, up from 74. Only shutouts so far in the New Year and a year-to-date save percentage of .934.
- Entrances into 31 to 60 from the top.
- Santini, Steve – 33, down from 30. Victim of the math: three went by him (Horvat, Nichushkin and Wennberg) so someone has to drop.
- Dickinson, Jason – 38, down from 17. Has not lived up to the promise that his size and skills have given us.
- Fasching, Hudson – 43, down from 27. Ditto to Jason’s comments.
- Who benefitted most from there play at the U20’s?
- Daňo, Marko – 39; up 37 places from 76.
- Müller, Mirco – 40; up 12 places from 52.
- Hartman, Ryan – 32; up 9 places from 41.
- Which of the three big under-achieving OHL forwards will get their act together first?
- Bailey, Jason – 36; down 1 place from 35.
- Kujawinski, Ryan – 37; up 2 places from 39.
- Dickinson, Jason – 38; down 21 places from 17.
- As a reminder, the historical rate for success for 2nd rounders is only:
- 33% for players ranked 31 to 45 and
- 24% for players ranked 46 to 90. That’s right; the success rate of 3rd rounders is almost identical to late 2nd rounders.
- NHL Central Scouting released there mid-term rankings after I wrote up this piece last week-end and the CHL held their Top Prospects game, so I have added a few comments on both. And for those of you wondering if I changed my rankings after this events – the answer is, yes. I added another honourable mention since my counting of the first go around only yielded 9 players.
Part 2: NHL 2013 Draft War Room: 31- 60
31. Fucale, Zach, Halifax, QMJHL, G, L, 6’1, 176 lb. – YTD: 35g 2.50 .896; Dec-12: 7g 1.99 .908.
Commentary: Fucale keeps playing; Halifax keeps winning. Last month 31. NHL Central Scouting (CS): NA Goalie 1; me NA Goalie 1.
32. Hartman, Ryan, Plymouth, OHL, C/RW, R, 5’11, 190 lb. – YTD: 35g 35pts +7; Dec-12: 7g 5pts -2; U20: 7g 3pts +4.
Commentary: Liked him before the U20s; like him even more now. If someone opts for a first rounder who is not likely to be a big scorer in the NHL, Ryan is your man. Last month 41. CS NA Skater 25; me 23. After the top prospects game, you have to think more and more that this guy will go 1st round.
33. Santini, Steve, USA NDP U18, All games, D, R, 6’1 208 lb. – YTD: 35g 10pts -1; Dec-12: 8g 3pts -1.
Commentary: Not a great month for most of the USA U18 prospects; the tournaments are coming though so there will be more opportunities to shine. Last month 30. CS NA Skater 47; me 24.
34. De La Rose, Jacob, Leksand, Allsvenskan, C/LW, L, 6’2, 190 lb. – YTD: 29g 7pts +5; U20: 6g 0pts 6+1.
Commentary: Solid but unspectacular performance at the U20s likely will allow him to maintain his ranking on most lists. Last month 34. CS EUR Skater 6; me 9.
35. McCoshen, Ian, Waterloo, USHL, D, L, 6’3, 207 lb. – YTD: 24g 18pts +19; Dec-12: 9g 9pts +1.
Commentary: A point per game in December, not too shabby for a big d-man. Last month 41. CS NA Skater 21; me 25.
36. Bailey, Justin, Kitchener, OHL, C/RW, R, 6’3 190 lb. – YTD: 33g 19pts +13; Dec-12: 4g 2pts +0.
Commentary: My personal favourite of the three big OHL under-performing forwards; the others being, Kujawinski and Dickinson. Justin shows the most promise of the three but the least results. Is the concussion Justin had earlier in the year a factor? Whatever the reason, Justin and his cohorts will have to start producing to maintain their draft rankings. Last month 35. CS NA Skater 37; me 26. Interesting to see the wide variation of CS on the big three OHL underperforming forwards. Justin had a few good shifts last night at the Top Prospects game and has had two points each in his last two games in the OHL – so maybe he is turning it around – too early to know for sure.
37. Kujawinski, Ryan, Kingston, OHL, C, L/LW, 6’2, 205 lb. – YTD: 42g 35pts -1; Dec-12: 10g 8pts +5.
Commentary: Ryan has been playing better of late. Was going to rank him higher but I watched him last week-end and he was invisible. Last month 39. CS NA Skater 69; me 27. After the Top Prospects game, I have sympathy for rankings of CS but I am not ready to give up on this guy just yet.
38. Dickinson, Jason, Guelph, OHL, LW, L, 6’2 176 lb. – YTD: 42g 34pts +9; Dec-12: 7g 3pts -3.
Commentary: The third man of the three big under-performing OHL forwards, Jason needs to pick it up or he will drop again next month. Last month 17. CS NA Skater 16; me 28.
39. Daňo, Marko, HC Slovan Bratislava, KHL, L, 5’11, 179 lb. – YTD: 27g 5pts +2; U20: 6g 9pts -1.
Commentary: Team USA may have won the gold medal at the U20s but it was Marko Daňo who struck gold in the rankings. Tied for 5th in the U20 scoring race, Marko gave notice he is a force to be reckoned with this year for the draft. Last month 76. CS EUR Skater = 10; me = 10.
40. Müller, Mirco, Everett, WHL, D, L, 6’4, 185 lb. – YTD: 36g 18pts +4; Dec-12: 4g 3pts -1; U20: 6g 2pts +7.
Commentary: Another guy who really helped his rankings at the U20s was Mirco Müller of the Swiss team. Led a very good but underrated Swiss team in plus/minus. If he continues to improve, first round is a possibility. Last month 52. CS NA Skater 12; me 29. CS went all in on this guy; I am waiting to see if he produces at 1st round capabilities consistently when he goes back to Everett before I move him up. Looks like he will be moving up, how far is the question.
41. Comrie, Eric, Tri-City, WHL, G, R, 6’1, 170 lb. – YTD: 37g 2.62 .915; Dec-12: 7 3.00 .911.
Commentary: Steady as she goes – a quality you like in a goaltender. Last month 38. CS: NA Goalie 2; me NA Goalie 2.
42. Hurley, Connor, Edina HS MN, C, L, 6’0, 180 lb. – YTD: 14g 23pts; Dec-12 8g 13pts.
Commentary: Unchanged. Last month 42. CS NA Skater 32; me 30.
43. Fasching, Hudson, USA NDP U18, All games, 6’2, 214 lb. – YTD: 35g 18pts +8; Dec-12: 8g 3pts +0.
Commentary: Big fellow just has not been producing or playing up to expectations. You want him to succeed because he could bring so much to a team with his size and skills but he got to do it on the ice too. Last month 27. CS NA Skater 42; me 31.
44. Theodore, Shea, Seattle, WHL, D, L, 6’2, 175 lb. – YTD: 44g 29pts -9; Dec-12: 12g 6pts +0.
Commentary: If he could improve his defense a little bit more, his ranking could start going up; maybe a way up. Last month 40. CS NA Skater 17; me 32. Obviously, CS and some others like this guy a lot more than me. For me, I want to see his defensive game improve before I start moving him up rather than down.
45. Klimchuck, Morgan, Regina, WHL, LW, L, 5’11, 180 lb. – YTD: 46g 53pts -2; Dec-12: 12g 15pts -4.
Commentary: Has that NHL shot for the power play and looks good on the PK. Could improve on five on five from my viewings. Last month 44. CS NA Skater 24; me 33.
46. Arnesson, Linus, Djurgården, Allsvenskan, D, L, 6’2, 187 lb. – YTD: 17 0pts -1; U20: 6g 0pts +0.
Commentary: Unchanged. Last month 46.CS EUR Skater = 14; me = 11.
47. Bigras, Chris, Owen Sound, OHL, D, L, 6’1, 189 lb. – YTD: 42g 26pts +26; Dec-12: 9g 5pts +4.
Commentary: Continues to progress well. Last month 43. CS NA Skater 19; me 34.
48. Buchnevich, Pavel, Cherepovets, MHL, C, L, 6’0, 165 lb. – YTD: 12g12pts +0.
Commentary: Unchanged. CS EUR Skater = 14; me = 11.
49. Morin, Samuel, Rimouski, QMJHL, D, L, 6’6, 203 lb. – YTD: 40g 15pts +9; Dec-12: 10g 5pts +4.
Commentary: I have upgraded him 10 places and will probably do the same next month if he continues to progress. A Hal Gill-like sized blueliner who can skate a whole lot better than Gill and shows a lot more meanness in the crease area as well. He can fight too. Last month 59. CS NA Skater 75; me 35. This guy is going 2nd round no matter where CS ranks him. As you could see from the Top Prospects game, he is still raw but he moves quite well for a big guy and is fairly skilled as well.
50. Heatherington, Dillon, Swift Current, WHL, 6’4, 196 lb. – YTD: 45g 14pts +10; Dec-12: 11g 4pts +6.
Commentary: Had a decent December and I think I may have been a little harsh on him in my December rankings as well. Last month 61. CS NA Skater 44; me 36.
51. Petan, Nicolas, Portland, WHL, C, L, 5’9, 166 lb. – YTD: 43g 74pts +46; Dec-12: 12g 20pts +16.
Commentary: Still concerned with the size issue but man is this guy good. Last month 63. CS NA Skater 34; me 37. Looked good at the Top Prospects game – was one of the better performers on either side.
52. Košťálek, Jan, Rimouski, QMJHL, D, R, 6’0, 179 lb. – YTD: 24g 6pts +5; Dec-12: Injured; returned 3-Jan-13.
Commentary: Jan is slowly being eased back in – a sign of good management from the Oceanic. Last month 52. CS NA Skater 40; me 38.
53. Subban, Jordan, Belleville, OHL, D, R, 5’9, 177 lb. – YTD: 41g 31pts +1; Dec-12: 9g 6pts +1.
Commentary: Watched Jordan last night; still Jordan, a wizard-like risk taker with the puck; under-sized without the puck. Although Belleville won in a shootout, Jordan didn’t get to participate in the shootout (his specialty) as he did a risky rush at the end of overtime that almost cost Belleville the game. Last month 53. CS NA Skater 81; me 39. CS may not like this guy but Hockey Canada thought enough of him to take him to the Ivan Hlinka tournament (where he helped Canada win gold) and NHL teams thought enough of him to give him a late invite to the Top Prospects game.
54. Wheaton, Mitchell, Kelowna, WHL, D, R, 6’5, 225 lb. – YTD: 36g 8pts +19; Dec-12: 11g 2pts +4.
Commentary: You can’t keep a big boy who can skate down forever. Last month 79. CS NA Skater 63; me 40.
55. Moutrey, Nick, Saginaw, OHL, RW, L, 6’3, 208 lb. – YTD: 41g 30pts +6; Dec-12: 10g 9pts +2.
Commentary: Getting tantalizingly better – so much more that could come. Last month 55. CS NA Skater 48; me 41.
56. Sörensen, Nick, Québec, QMJHL, RW, R, 6’1, 175 lb. – YTD: 26g 25pts +13; Dec-12: 4g 2pts +6; U20: 6g 0pts -1.
Commentary:Had a very quiet U20. Last month 45. CS NA Skater 27; me 42.
57. Trainor, Peter, Rimouski, QMJHL, LW, L, 5’11, 180 lb. – YTD: 44g 67pts +18; Dec-12: 10g 14pts +3.
Commentary: The unofficial leader and best player (night after night) on a very, very good Rimouski Oceanic club. Although he has been overlooked twice in the draft and comes in at a modest 5’11, 180 lb., he doesn’t have many weaknesses other than size. He has been even better in the New Year – so far not going one game without two points. Last month: Unranked. CS NA Skater Unranked; me 43.
58. Downing, Michael, Dubuque, USHL, D, L, 6’3, 190 lb. – YTD: 22g 9pts +6; Dec-12: 6g 4pts +1.
Commentary: The big guy continues to roll. Last month 56. CS NA Skater 49; me 44.
59. Dauphin, Laurent, Chicoutimi, QMJHL, C, L, 6’0, 166 lb. – YTD: 39g 41pts +3; Dec-12: 4g 2pts +0.
Commentary: My love affair with Laurent Dauphin is just starting to blossom. Plays like a big man at times which is why I have moved him into the top 60. Still needs to get rid of that occasional wispiness by adding weight and strength. Last month 65. CS NA Skater 41; me 45. Liked him last night at the Top Prospects where he was the player of the game for his team – still needs to add weight and strength or the Ryan Hartman’s of the world will continue to run him over.
Jarry, Tristan, Edmonton, WHL, D, L, 6’2, 181 lb. – YTD: 16g 1.68 9.34; Dec-12: 5g 3.14 .897.
Commentary: The back-up goalie for the Edmonton Oil Kings has started the New Year on fire with shutouts in both games he has played in. Last month 74. CS: NA Goalie 3; me NA Goalie 3. Another player of the game for his side at the Top Prospects game – and deservedly so; finally, some respect.
HM – Bjorkstrand, Oliver, Portland, WHL, RW, R, 5’11, 164 lb. – YTD : 36g 35pts +24; Dec-12: 5g 6pts +3
HM – Dunn, Vincent, Val d’Or, QMJHL, C, L, 5’11, 175 lb. – YTD: 34g 40pts +13; Dec-12: 9g 8pts -6
HM – Etchegary, Kurt, Quebec, QMJHL, C, L, 5’11, 185 lb. – YTD 13g 11pts +2 – Currently injured
HM – Harper, Stephen, Erie, OHL, LW, L, 6’2, 200 – YTD: 42g 24pts -16; Dec-12: 10g 10pts +0
HM – Ikonen, Juuso, Blues, SM-liiga, RW, L, 5’9, 170 lb. – YTD: 39g 22pts +7 CS EUR
HM – McCarron, Michael, USA NDP U18, USHL, RW, R, 6’5, 228 lb. – YTD 30g 14pts +1; Dec-12: 4g 1pt -1
HM – Murphy, Matt, Halifax, QMJHL, D, L, 6’1, 201 lb. – YTD: 43g 25pts +5; Dec-12: 11g 3 pts -10
HM – Tambellini, Adam, Surrey, BCHL, LW/C, L, 6’4, 177 lb. – YTD: 38g 46pts
HM – Westlund, Wilhelm, Farjestad , SWE J20, D, L, 6,0, 179 lb. – YTD: 22g 10pts +6. CS
HM – Vannelli, Tommy, Minnetonka, HS MN, D, R, 6’2, 175 lb. – YTD: 25g 20pts +21; Dec-12: 9g 12pts +1
Part 1: NHL 2013 Draft War Room Top 30