Guest post by Eldon MacDonald
This is the first in a series of nine articles ranking the top 90 prospects for the 2013 NHL draft. This series are the musings of one hockey fan, for other hockey fans, with the intention of making them memorable enough to enable even the casual reader to remember the prospect’s name when it comes up at the draft next June.
Some will prove successful; ultimately some will not. I am hoping to achieve a better success rate than the 19% chance the NHL teams currently have in selecting an NHL player in the fourth round.
NHL Entry Draft Historical Success Rate
In looking back at the 2003 to 2005 entry drafts, it is interesting to note the success rate for each of the rounds. By my calculations (players that are NHL regulars, for the most part; your list could be slightly different), here are the figures:
01-15: 82% (03-93%; 04-73%; 05-80%)
16-30: 76% (03-93%; 04-67%; 05-67%)
31-45: 33% (03-33%; 04- 7%; 05-60%)
46-60: 24% (03-33%; 04-33%; 05- 7%)
61-90: 24% (03-33%; 04-20%; 05-20%)
91-120: 19% (03-10%; 04-30%; 05-17%)
120-150: 11% (03-10%; 04-13%; 05-10%)
151-180: 9% (03-13%; 04-13%; 05- 0%)
181-210: 10% (03-17%; 04- 3%; 05-10%)
Over 210: 12% (03-13%; 04-10%; 05-15%)
Overall: 23% (03-25%; 04-20%; 05-23%)
The 2013 Draft
In looking over the 2013 draft, there a number of things that stand out:
- This is a good draft class – especially for forwards. Where were all the good forwards for the 2012 draft; they were still in the womb, holding out 2013 draft eligibility.
- This is a QMJHL-heavy draft – This year the Dub has their usual plethora of defensemen but it is the “Q” which is producing quality talent at an astonishing rate. Usually the scrub of the draft, this year the QMJHL is likely to put anywhere from 7 to 10 prospects in the 1st round and still have some left over for rounds two and three. The OHL, however, is having an off-year. While it still is producing a large quantity of prospects, the league does not dominate the high-end part of the draft like it usually does. As for US players, most of the high-end ones are in the CHL (Jones, Erne), but there are a number of Team USA and USHL players who have a chance of crowding the end of round one. As for Europe, Sweden is producing at their usual high rate of late. Finland could produce up to 3 first rounders (Barkov, Ristolainen Lehkonen). Russia is generally having an off year (other than Nicushkin) unless you include their countrymen playing in the CHL (Zadorov, Zykov).
- The goalies – Last year two goalies were selected in the first round. This year there are three goalies at this point who have a chance of being first rounders – Fucale, Comrie and Martin. More may emerge in the second half of the season. However, I have not included any of them in my first round rankings. This should not be considered a reflection on the abilities of these three goalies, but more a consideration that there is a glut of goalies of NHL caliber in the pipeline at the moment. Teams who have two or more first rounders make good candidates for taking a goalie in the first round. Thus, we should not discount the possibility of goalies being selected come the Friday night of the draft.
The Top 10 in 2013
- Top 15 has 82% success rate: At an 82% success rate, 1 to 2 players on the list below are not likely to ever become regular NHL players. I wonder which players will not be on the 82% side.
- Vitals: The vitals reading left to right are:
- Shoots
- Position
- Height and weight
- Birth date
- Citizenship
- League
- Team and player number
- Rankings: You should check out some of the web sites listed below if you want a different perspective on the rankings:
- NHL – NHL Central Scouting – North American and International Preliminary Rankings
- CR-THW – The Hockey Writers, Christopher Ralph’s The Next Ones Top 60 – Oct-12
- FC – Future Considerations – Nov-12
- HP – HockeyProspect.com – Nov-12
- ISS – ISS – Nov-12
- McK – McKeen’s – Nov-12
- THG – The Hockey Guys – Nov-12
- THN – The Hockey News (Ryan Kennedy) – Nov-12
- TSN – The Sports Network’s Craig Button – Oct-12
- OHL – OHL Prospects blog of Brock Otten – Nov-12
Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin: The dynamic 2013 NHL draft eligible duo from the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL (Photo: Mike Dembeck)
Round 1: 1 to 10 – Historical success rate = 82%
1. MacKinnon, Nathan
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’0, 182 – 1-Sep-95 – CDN – QMJHL – Halifax #22
b – 2012-13 Stats: 26 22 34 46 33 +26
c – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-1; CR-THW–1; FC-1; HP-1; ISS-1; McK-1; THG-1; THN-1; TSN-2
d – Commentary: Mr. MacMoney – Generational talent; clutch scorer; able to elevate his game at key times; and an intensity like “The Rocket”, Maurice Richard.
e – Twitter: @Mackinnon9
2. Jones, Seth
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’4, 206 – 3-Oct-94 – USA – WHL – Portland #3
b – 2012-13 Stats: 25 7 12 19 21 +20
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-1; CR-THW–2; FC-2; HP-2; ISS-2; McK-2; THG-2; THN-2; TSN-1
d – Commentary: The Bear Back There – Don’t roil him or you will pay. Franchise blueliner with bear-like size who can take over a game. Son of Popeye Jones, former long-time NBA player.
e – Twitter: @seth_jones04
3. Monahan, Sean
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’2, 193 – 12-Oct-94 – CAN – OHL – Ottawa #20
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 12 24 36 8 -3
c – Rank: NHL–ONT-1; CR-THW–3; FC-5; HP-3; ISS-5; McK-5; THG-4; THN-5; TSN-6; OHL–OHL-1
d – Commentary: Mr. Everything – All around centre who can do everything and has the size and leadership that teams are so desperate for.
e – Twitter: @Monahan20
4. Drouin, Jonathan
a – Vitals: L – LW – 5’11, 190 – 28-Mar-95 – CDN – QMJHL – Halifax #27
b – 2012-13 Stats: 20 15 16 41 14 +19
c – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-2; CR-THW–7; FC-6; HP-4; ISS-4; McK-9; THG-5; THN-7; TSN-13
d – Commentary: Mr. Smooth and Easy – Vision, passing, stick-handling are sublime; makes everyone around him better, even the dynamo named Nathan MacKinnon.
e – Twitter: @jodrouin27
5. Barkov, Alexander
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’2, 205 – 2-Sep-95 – FIN – FIN-1 – Tappara #16
b – 2012-13 Stats: 27 13 14 27 4 +9
c – Rank: NHL–FIN-1; CR-THW–6; FC-3; HP-5; ISS-3; McK-4; THG-3; THN-3; TSN-3
d – Commentary: Big Finnish centre who can skate, pass, shoot and score; having considerable success in top Finnish men’s league, the SM-liiga.
e – Twitter: @Barkovsasha95
6. Lindholm, Elias
a – Vitals: R – C – 6’0, 192 – 2-Dec-94 – SWE – SWE-1 – Brynas #28
b – 2012-13 Stats: 28 5 12 17 2 -2
c – Rank: NHL-SWE-1; CR-THW–11; FC-4; HP-6; ISS-10; McK-3; THG-6; THN-4; TSN-5
d – Commentary: Calle Järnkrok’s cousin has the size, smarts and defensive acumen to be one of the most sought after players in this draft.
e – Twitter: @lindholmelias
7. Shinkaruk, Hunter
a – Vitals: L – LW – 5’11, 175 – 13-Oct-94 – CDN – WHL – Medicine Hat #9
b – 2012-13 Stats: 25 17 21 38 8 +3
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-2; CR-THW–4; FC-8; HP-13; ISS-7; McK-7; THG-7; THN-9; TSN-11
d – Commentary: Mr. Fast and Furious – A go-to scorer with elusive speed.
e – Twitter: @H_S_9
8. Ristolainen, Rasmus
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’3, 203 – 27-Oct-94 – FIN – FIN-1 – TPS #55
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 2 5 7 18 -5
c – Rank: NHL–FIN-2; CR-THW–12; FC-7; HP-7; ISS-8; McK-6; THG-8; THN-8; TSN-19
d – Commentary: Goran Stubb, NHL Director of European Scouting, told NHL.com:
“He’s a mobile, strong, offensive-minded defenseman with very good puck-handling and passing skills. He’s young, but he knows how to use his size and strength. He’s one of the best young defensemen in Europe in his age group. He’s a leader on the ice and plays with confidence”.
9. Pulock, Ryan
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’1, 211 – 6-Oct-94 – CAN – WHL – Brandon #2
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 9 16 25 12 +14
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-3; CR-THW–5; FC-9; HP-14; ISS-15; McK-8; THG-10; THN-14; TSN-9
d – Commentary: The Captain – Elite defenseman with NHL shot and vision. Shows leadership and yes, he is the Captain of the Brandon Wheat Kings.
e – Twitter: @rpulock2
10. Nurse, Darnell
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’5, 184 – 4-Feb-95 – CAN – OHL – Sault Ste. Marie #25
b – 2012-13 Stats: 28 5 15 20 64 +9
c – Rank: NHL–OHL-2; CR-THW–24; FC-12; HP-19; ISS-9; McK-23; THG-14; THN-12; TSN-23; OHL-OHL-2
d – Commentary: Dr. Defense – Prongeresque like blueliner with like-minded size, skating and in the process of developing like-minded temperament. Father (Richard) played football for the Hamilton Tiger Cats of the CFL and uncle (Donovan McNabb) for the Washington Redskins of the NFL.
e – Twitter: @drtwofive
Full Series:
